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#1447083 - 03/01/2018 13:27 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Stormy period - 30 Dec 2017 to 5th Jan 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Coxy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1047
Loc: Jindalee, QLD
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Coxy
Haha, living in Jindalee I watched it with almost the same feeling of betrayal ;-)

Over the years I've noticed a large number of storms that roll in from the west in that direction do the same split and weakening as they reach us, then reform beyond the CBD.

Would it be related to the geography of the area?


I'd say the main reason is simply because in the common WSW steering setups we get, many storms typically start weakening during the long trip from the higher rugged terrain inland to coastal areas (as you'd expect them too once they move off the more favourable higher ground and travel TOO far into the seabreeze-affected areas) which then makes them more susceptible to have gaps opening up in them, especially if they're in a bit of a line)... so if you happen to be where one of those gaps pass over, it'll appear as if they're splitting and going around you.

There are exceptions of course.


Interesting. It seems coincidental that so many of the storms from that direction, the gaps appear just west/south west of us. Like the hill at Moggill almost acts as a divider that creates the gap.

Probably not, but it's the perception. I shared your comedy gold with the local community facebook group and there were straight away comments from people who have noticed this phenomenon too.

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#1447084 - 03/01/2018 13:28 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Stormy period - 30 Dec 2017 to 5th Jan 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1018
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
i wonder Ken if the weakish La Nina has just offered up the moist air in a prolonged manner rather than producing any big rain events as such which may be more expected.

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#1447085 - 03/01/2018 13:32 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Stormy period - 30 Dec 2017 to 5th Jan 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4803
Coxy: Yeah local topography and different land use types might play a bit of a role in favoured tracks but I suspect the main one is probably due to the increasing susceptibility of activity breaking up as it moves away from the inland higher terrain and closer and closer to the coastline (in those typical WSW steering setups with a seabreeze front positioned near the eastern Lockyer Valley by late afternoon).


Edited by Ken Kato (03/01/2018 13:33)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1447086 - 03/01/2018 13:33 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Stormy period - 30 Dec 2017 to 5th Jan 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
signalman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 75
Loc: Warwick (Qld)
Commencement of a bit of action on the Range east and north-east of Warwick and looking south over the northern New Englands. Cloud tops not greatly elevated yet but in the throws of development. Might end up patchy but reasonable rain from storms is likely east of the Range mid to late afternoon. Probably not as prolific or intense as yesterday but the ingredients are there. Cheers.

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#1447089 - 03/01/2018 13:42 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Stormy period - 30 Dec 2017 to 5th Jan 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4803
Big T: Possibly... but then again, no two La Nina's are the same when it comes to rainfall patterns even when their strengths are similar so doesn't really surprise me. Other factors also play a role.

I also agree with you re the S to SE winds - I don't think the S to SE'lies will prevent storms today although the main focus of the initiation of the stronger storms might be slightly inland of the coast before being steered northeastwards (for any non-severe cells).

As mentioned previously, the waters off our part of the world are significantly warmer than normal which is probably adding to the warmth and moisture of the airmass coming onto our coast (temps close to 30C near the coast already with dewpoints near or above 20C)... not your typical cool stable S to SE wind flow.

Those winds are also converging with the SW'lies further inland which would be helpful.

There's already lightning detected over the ranges in SE QLD/NE NSW as signalman mentioned which is continuing to grow and there's also convection further inland... this looks pretty consistent with the forecasts from models that have been going for activity to start developing over the ranges initially.
The SW steering is reasonably good.

I don't know if Brisbane itself will manage to fall inside a gap again or cop something but I'd be surprised if many places don't cop storms this afternoon/evening.

Below is the thunderstorm script output (with the red outlined contours this time):




Edited by Ken Kato (03/01/2018 13:50)

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#1447090 - 03/01/2018 13:48 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Stormy period - 30 Dec 2017 to 5th Jan 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3066
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Damn good looking storm to the west of us rumbling away, gona miss us as usual.

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#1447093 - 03/01/2018 14:06 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Stormy period - 30 Dec 2017 to 5th Jan 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
signalman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 75
Loc: Warwick (Qld)
Wouldn't be surprised to see BOM storm warnings shortly. The last half hour or so has seen rapid intensifications in several locations including quite visible cores on radar. This wont be a quiet day given what has occurred over a short period of time.

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#1447094 - 03/01/2018 14:15 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Stormy period - 30 Dec 2017 to 5th Jan 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3066
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Damn thing just sideswiped us, plenty CGs, booms, bit of rain, but it is building into something nasty IMO, fairly gusty winds now behind it.
Holy crap, frozen marbles.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (03/01/2018 14:17)

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#1447095 - 03/01/2018 14:16 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Stormy period - 30 Dec 2017 to 5th Jan 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2845
Loc: collingwood park
The outflow from these storms might be a problem. Nice deep grumbles here.
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#1447096 - 03/01/2018 14:20 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Stormy period - 30 Dec 2017 to 5th Jan 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
pkgjmg Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2915
Loc: Mt Warren Park
jebus! the radar is going OFF IT'S NUT!!! ... storms popping up all over the place .... looks like everyone might get something today??
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#1447098 - 03/01/2018 14:26 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Stormy period - 30 Dec 2017 to 5th Jan 2018 [Re: pkgjmg]
weatheriam Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 06/12/2016
Posts: 27
Loc: Redlands
Looking like we could be in for some intense storms... going by my limited knowledge. Purely based on the radar.

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#1447100 - 03/01/2018 14:31 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Stormy period - 30 Dec 2017 to 5th Jan 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1088
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Dalby storm just exploded in half hour, nothing then . . Bang . . Storm!
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2017-559, Jan-103.5, Feb-67.5, Mar-118.5, April-0, May-7, June-21.5, July 33.5, Aug-2.5, September-1, Oct-112, Nov-21, December-98

2016 - 563.5
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#1447102 - 03/01/2018 14:43 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Stormy period - 30 Dec 2017 to 5th Jan 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3066
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Brief period of light marble sized hail, 2mm total. Looks a bit nasty towards NNE.

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#1447107 - 03/01/2018 14:56 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Stormy period - 30 Dec 2017 to 5th Jan 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1105
Loc: Toowoomba
As I said, a crazy idea but I wish there were some people in that big area around the Wilson & Clarence area that would /could post. There is a huge gap there. Also, I love those rich colors on that SST map.

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#1447108 - 03/01/2018 14:59 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Stormy period - 30 Dec 2017 to 5th Jan 2018 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
T.rex Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 58
Loc: Toowoomba Qld
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Brief period of light marble sized hail, 2mm total. Looks a bit nasty towards NNE.


Watching all this unfold from NE Toowoomba, I would agree with you completely. It looks very nasty, and the boiling clouds are amazing.

The storm around Boonah way, now nearly at Amberley, it also looking quite severe. I hope the RAAF have tied all their planes down, or we might not have an Air Force.

Mike
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On the Edge of the Range.

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#1447109 - 03/01/2018 15:03 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Stormy period - 30 Dec 2017 to 5th Jan 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3066
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Wow, huge black core west of Marburg on Stapy, havnt seen one that size for long time, looks very unpleasant.
Clouds black as, towards the SSE.
GO AWAY!!


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (03/01/2018 15:07)

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#1447110 - 03/01/2018 15:04 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Stormy period - 30 Dec 2017 to 5th Jan 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2845
Loc: collingwood park
Was looking and sounding good, but it's gunna slip to the west of us. It's turned more northly
_________________________
I hate winter

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#1447111 - 03/01/2018 15:04 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Stormy period - 30 Dec 2017 to 5th Jan 2018 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2915
Loc: Mt Warren Park
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Wow, huge black core west of Marburg on Stapy, havnt seen one that size for long time, looks very unpleasant.


i just seen that! that's massive ... hope there is no major damage .. looks like a beast!
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#1447112 - 03/01/2018 15:18 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Stormy period - 30 Dec 2017 to 5th Jan 2018 [Re: pkgjmg]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1973
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Deja vu, the old split happening again before Brisbane.

Storms are flourishing in that sweet spot of convergence between the SW'lies and SE'lies. I don't think they will fare well if they make it off the ranges though with the capping on the coast. An earlier cell in the border ranges near Springbrook died instantly as soon as it moved away.

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#1447113 - 03/01/2018 15:31 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Stormy period - 30 Dec 2017 to 5th Jan 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2915
Loc: Mt Warren Park
boy! i wouldn't like to be in the path of that cell heading wivenhoe way, that just looks monsterous!

how is everyone else fairing? .. nothing to report from our corner of Mt Warren Park - getting a bit dark, as the house where the computer is is closed up with air con going I have no idea if there is any thunder as yet .. but we could see something from the beauy cell?
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