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#1447550 - 06/01/2018 11:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: retired weather man]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18406
Loc: Burnett Heads
Originally Posted By: retired weather man


Mick10 - As you know I spent 25 years up there too and saw the same. For info here are the prolonged dry spells in Townsville over the past 4 decades. These are Townsville's annual rainfalls expressed as a percentage of the long term average.

1982 - 62%, 1992 - 53%, 2001 - 41%, 2013 - 63%.
1983 - 69%, 1993 - 44%, 2002 - 68%, 2014 - 92%.
1984 - 85%, 1994 - 41%, 2003 - 51%, 2015 - 35%.
1985 - 55%, 1995 - 63%, 2004 - 76%, 2016 - 84%
1986 - 55%, 1996 - 56%, 2005 - 45%.
1987 - 68%,
1988 - 71%.
The current dry run is not too bad yet
compared to recent ones.


Hence why I said what I did . Townsville's "Average" is a bit deceptive. I also mentioned that one in the 90's you have on your list when dead cattle lay all over the place between Townsville and Charters Towers and the ground was cracked heavily, the Bruce Highway between Townsville and Airlie beach littered with roo carcasses.

Maybe they need a desal plant? You can't keep shoving people into a city that has no water and a history of having no water without a clear solution and governments on both sides don't seem interested in addressing the issue.

Townsville has the same issue as Bowen and Bundaberg because of geography. Areas north and south of us get 1500mm a year as their annual rainfall is supplimented with south easterly stream showers and so their "average" is a little more consistent.

Townsville relies on cyclone inundation (or the remains of) to prop up its average and had Debbie drifted a little further north last year the result could have been very different but that's the weather for you. Yesterday at home it was the only place on the coast between Adelaide and Townsville to get rain and it is anomalous rain events that make up our average also. 700mm in October , 300mm in March as Debbie's remains went over us and the rest was spread over the remaining 362 days.

Bundaberg is in a rain shadow just like Townsville and Bowen and I,ve witnessed many years when the MT was nowhere near Qld until February, just as Kino stated above. Probably why Cairns' wettest two months are February and March (on average).
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"When it comes to the weather, "occasionally" is better than "not at all".

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#1447606 - 06/01/2018 15:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Brett Guy]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7466
Loc: Central Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
As for the theories of people on this forum. Lets face it. They are guesses. Especially in regards to ENSO. Hell even the best scientific models are guesses it would seem and based on that theories and scientific analysis is speculation

Hypotheses are guesses until demonstrated otherwise. Some theories in modern science have a very solid foundation, and as a consequence it would take a lot of dedication, hard work and time to debunk them. This does not mean they are infallible - when are they ever - but it does mean that expression one's opinion - without qualifying the claims made - on these robust theories is definitely not enough undo all the testing, replication and reviewing they have gone through...

If one's intention is to debunk a solid theory without a good reason to - an objective - then that is not science, or even close to it. If theories are debunked by chance or finding new things out from data analysis - expected or unexpected - then that is great. However, if one is not being transparent about what is being undertaken...that's something else. Going out of one's way to debunk ideas is not science, it is bias. If that's what's happen in the past on this forum - because ideas have been fixated on for whatever reason - then I certainly hope history does not repeat.


Edited by Seira (06/01/2018 15:51)
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Demonstrated factual discussion is the anti-thesis of an untestable expression of views; facts support compassion and understanding.

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#1447618 - 06/01/2018 16:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 453
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge
The knowledge develops from skill applied to data analysis
Observation experience counts a huge amount
Ultimately knowledge becomes solid when shared with others and put to scrutiny... peer reviewed journals etc and many other sources and media worth weight for knowledge sharing.
Reader still has to decide for themselves whether what is written is good/avg/bad
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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#1447619 - 06/01/2018 16:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Flowin]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2261
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge
The knowledge develops from skill applied to data analysis
Observation experience counts a huge amount
Ultimately knowledge becomes solid when shared with others and put to scrutiny... peer reviewed journals etc and many other sources and media worth weight for knowledge sharing.
Reader still has to decide for themselves whether what is written is good/avg/bad


Well said.

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#1447631 - 06/01/2018 17:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 283
Loc: Golden Beach
Hi all, it won't have a great influence on us but has the monsoon trough made an appearance on the national weather 4 day chart?

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#1447633 - 06/01/2018 17:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Snapper22lb]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2261
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Hi all, it won't have a great influence on us but has the monsoon trough made an appearance on the national weather 4 day chart?


Sure has, and according to the Severe Weather Advice issued for the NT today it’s there now. Hope it does lol it always seems to arrive just after the BoM conclusively say it won’t for weeks.

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#1447648 - 06/01/2018 19:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2281
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Townsville can catch water off the roof of that new sports stadium they are getting.

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#1447651 - 06/01/2018 19:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Seira]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7055
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Seira
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
As for the theories of people on this forum. Lets face it. They are guesses. Especially in regards to ENSO. Hell even the best scientific models are guesses it would seem and based on that theories and scientific analysis is speculation

Hypotheses are guesses until demonstrated otherwise. Some theories in modern science have a very solid foundation, and as a consequence it would take a lot of dedication, hard work and time to debunk them. This does not mean they are infallible - when are they ever - but it does mean that expression one's opinion - without qualifying the claims made - on these robust theories is definitely not enough undo all the testing, replication and reviewing they have gone through...

If one's intention is to debunk a solid theory without a good reason to - an objective - then that is not science, or even close to it. If theories are debunked by chance or finding new things out from data analysis - expected or unexpected - then that is great. However, if one is not being transparent about what is being undertaken...that's something else. Going out of one's way to debunk ideas is not science, it is bias. If that's what's happen in the past on this forum - because ideas have been fixated on for whatever reason - then I certainly hope history does not repeat.



Siera - I'll listen to you when the global climate models you have so much confidence in, can predict future climate better than simply using the average temperature over past 100 years and re-projecting that for the coming year.

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#1447653 - 06/01/2018 19:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Flowin]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7055
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge
The knowledge develops from skill applied to data analysis
Observation experience counts a huge amount
Ultimately knowledge becomes solid when shared with others and put to scrutiny... peer reviewed journals etc and many other sources and media worth weight for knowledge sharing.
Reader still has to decide for themselves whether what is written is good/avg/bad


Yep, but unless the gauge values are back corrected to suit an agenda.

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#1447659 - 06/01/2018 19:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3123
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Petros


Siera - I'll listen to you when the global climate models you have so much confidence in, can predict future climate better than simply using the average temperature over past 100 years and re-projecting that for the coming year.


Achieved about 30 years ago, although that is a forbidden topic...

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#1447660 - 06/01/2018 20:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 453
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Petros
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge
The knowledge develops from skill applied to data analysis
Observation experience counts a huge amount
Ultimately knowledge becomes solid when shared with others and put to scrutiny... peer reviewed journals etc and many other sources and media worth weight for knowledge sharing.
Reader still has to decide for themselves whether what is written is good/avg/bad


Yep, but unless the gauge values are back corrected to suit an agenda.


I did say and put to scrutiny
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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#1447661 - 06/01/2018 20:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7466
Loc: Central Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: Petros
Siera - I'll listen to you when the global climate models you have so much confidence in, can predict future climate better than simply using the average temperature over past 100 years and re-projecting that for the coming year.

I didn't saying anything about models. I also didn't say anything about confidence, nor do I have all the answers. I can't tell people what I think, but I do know, for sure, that making unchecked assumptions makes an ass out of all if not checked! This is not personal.


Edited by Seira (06/01/2018 20:08)
_________________________
Demonstrated factual discussion is the anti-thesis of an untestable expression of views; facts support compassion and understanding.

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#1447665 - 06/01/2018 20:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5091
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Not sure how we got to this. My point was that ENSO models are little better than a guess therefore the 'science' is in effect little more than speculation. And in that case the speculation of us on this thread is just as legitimate as the science as a wild guess would achieve the same success rate in predicting future ENSO states.

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#1447666 - 06/01/2018 20:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 453
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
I think ENSO state is a tickle in amongst other factors.
Frustrates me when all the discussion is La Niña, El Niño or something in between.
What is MJO doing.
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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#1447667 - 06/01/2018 20:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1790
Loc: Kingaroy
Sites like earth.nullschool are good because you can see what's going on in real time. It's too easy to get caught up in computer models because there are so many variables involved and it only takes one to be out to throw the whole prediction out. Earlier this year an El Nino was predicted but then the trades picked up which changed the forecast entirely, also we came off the back of one of the strongest El Ninos on record which means that La Nina had to come at some point. Every action has an equal or almost equal reaction.

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#1447668 - 06/01/2018 20:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 453
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
MJO forecast seems to put next western pacific phase quite weak

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml


Edited by Flowin (06/01/2018 20:28)
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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#1447685 - 06/01/2018 22:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Brett Guy]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 170
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
And in that case the speculation of us on this thread is just as legitimate as the science


Legitimate in the eyes of some maybe - I dare say others who are interested in the subject dont see the repetitious & opinionated comments as legitimate science at all- I think it needs to be said

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#1447686 - 06/01/2018 22:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Seira]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1841
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Testing, Replication, Reviewing. Unfortunately for Climate Science it seems to be models all the way down, and the only reviewing done is that of past records so that they match the current models.

Hence the current state of affairs where models are reactive instead of predictive, and the only replication done is the regular re-re adjustment of records to match the models and on and on it go's, till we end up with a unison of models that all point one way while mother nature heads off in another direction all together...yet again.

Literally Billions of $ spent and yet it would seem that the preoccupation and concentration on an inert necessary gas has caused a fog that many just can't see past.

Hypothesis, Theory's, Funding, Pal Reviews, Don't make for good Science. Actual predictive and repetitive results do.

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#1447689 - 06/01/2018 23:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 453
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Actual predictive and repetitive results don't manifest without hypothesis, theory, and peer review..... So it is hard to make much sense of that Marakai?

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#1447698 - 07/01/2018 07:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: snowbooby]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5091
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
And in that case the speculation of us on this thread is just as legitimate as the science


Legitimate in the eyes of some maybe - I dare say others who are interested in the subject dont see the repetitious & opinionated comments as legitimate science at all- I think it needs to be said


I didn't say 'legitimate'. I said 'just as legitimate as the science'. The implication being the science of ENSO prediction is not that legitimate.
PS. I am not referencing anything other than ENSO wink


Edited by Brett Guy (07/01/2018 07:14)

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