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#1448227 - 10/01/2018 01:36 Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25256
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
thought a thread would have been created on this system by now, looking likely to move off the coast tonight and rapidly intensify and be a named system by tonight.

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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
March 2018 total - 296mm (194mm)
April 2018 total - 12.4mm (66mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 794.4mm (1107mm)

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#1448252 - 10/01/2018 09:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Ronfishes Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3589
Loc: Gordonvale
0531 10/1/18
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MTD: 39.6mm
2017-2018 wet season(Nov-Apr): 2259mm

YTD: 2133.6mm



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#1448257 - 10/01/2018 10:22 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
opplevelse Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/08/2006
Posts: 728
Loc: Christiania, slightly east of ...
It seems to have been renamed 05S any ideas why?
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"Science is a lot like sex ... sometimes something useful comes out, but that's not the reason we do it." - Richard Feynman

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#1448334 - 11/01/2018 03:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3488
Loc: Broome
South West 10km/hr if Access R on the money then should be steering a even more Southerly track within the next few hours.

Details of Tropical Low at 11:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 16.4 degrees South, 122.2 degrees East , 175 kilometres north of Broome and 80 kilometres west of Cape Leveque .
Movement: southwest at 10 kilometres per hour .

The uncertainty in the forecast track means that it is still possible the system could impact coastal parts of the central and western Pilbara later Friday and Saturday.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1448336 - 11/01/2018 04:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Blanched Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/12/2009
Posts: 147
Loc: Karratha, WA
Why are the BOM models (10 & 3 day) different to the forecast track map of this system?

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#1448351 - 11/01/2018 09:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3488
Loc: Broome




Details of Tropical Low at 5:00 am AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 16.7 degrees South, 121.8 degrees East , 145 kilometres north northwest of Broome and 125 kilometres west southwest of Cape Leveque .
Movement: southwest at 9 kilometres per hour .

The uncertainty in the forecast track means that it is still possible the system could impact coastal parts of the central and western Pilbara late on Friday or during Saturday.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1448352 - 11/01/2018 09:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3488
Loc: Broome

Not sure on that one Blanched could only say that this system has been evolving and still is and the dynamics of this type of system makes it a hard one to predict.

Especially considering the steering mechanisms are also changing daily which also adds to the complexity of the forecasting and tracking situation.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1448357 - 11/01/2018 11:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
I think Blanched that the reason they are different is that the 3 day/ 10 day only uses one model for its prediction, where as the forcast map for cyclones is made up by forcasters and a lot of different models.

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#1448362 - 11/01/2018 12:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
gecko Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2007
Posts: 411
Loc: Coconut Grove, Darwin, NT.
TC Joyce it is.

Forecast 3 at crossing.

Windy day/night at Broome coming. Max gust so far 67 km/h.

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#1448364 - 11/01/2018 12:25 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 803
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Good luck for those in its path....stay safe peps


Edited by rainthisway (11/01/2018 12:25)
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Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2018]: 10mm (Ave 136mm)
Mar 2018: 679.9mm (avg 329.6mm)
YTD 2018 1787.3mm (Avg 1952.1mm)

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#1448367 - 11/01/2018 13:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
opplevelse Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/08/2006
Posts: 728
Loc: Christiania, slightly east of ...
Still a fair bit of variation between the models, although the GFS Ensembles are all pretty consistent, the CMC ones certainly are not, some have it running all the way along the coast! Therefore I am inclined to believe GFS.

The next 36hrs will be very interesting.
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"Science is a lot like sex ... sometimes something useful comes out, but that's not the reason we do it." - Richard Feynman

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#1448368 - 11/01/2018 13:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Blanched Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/12/2009
Posts: 147
Loc: Karratha, WA
Yeah its been different since the onset of the track maps, it has Hedland/Karratha copping it in the BOM models but the track map has been fairly consistent on an 80-mile beach sort of area.

Only time will tell, hopefully it crosses over the less populated areas.

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#1448372 - 11/01/2018 15:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 319
Loc: Karratha, WA
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

Details of Tropical Cyclone Joyce at 11:00 am AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 17.0 degrees South, 121.6 degrees East , 125 kilometres north northwest of Broome and 155 kilometres west southwest of Cape Leveque .
Movement: south southwest at 7 kilometres per hour .

The uncertainty in the forecast track means that it is still possible the system could impact coastal parts of the central and western Pilbara late on Friday or during Saturday.


She's finally turning, SSW now instead of SW. Slight speed up from 6 to 7kmph.

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#1448377 - 11/01/2018 15:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Blanched]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 319
Loc: Karratha, WA
Originally Posted By: Blanched
Yeah its been different since the onset of the track maps, it has Hedland/Karratha copping it in the BOM models but the track map has been fairly consistent on an 80-mile beach sort of area.
.


Hey Blanched, looks like it's been resolved now. Long range models have just updated and they look to match.

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#1448384 - 11/01/2018 17:59 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 319
Loc: Karratha, WA
Details of Tropical Cyclone Joyce at 2:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 17.3 degrees South, 121.7 degrees East , 90 kilometres northwest of Broome and 155 kilometres north of Bidyadanga .
Movement: south at 9 kilometres per hour


Speeding up further to 9kmph and directly south, which may make up for the movement it made last night further west than predicted.

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#1448388 - 11/01/2018 19:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
All over the shop this one. Seems to be racing to the coast now. Bidgy area maybe. Pretty lightish winds in Broome considering with heavy rain though which is nice. Gauge filling fast.
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#1448389 - 11/01/2018 19:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Yeah straight south now by the look of it pops. Thought you might have headed down Wallal way before the highway was closed at 4. Anyway wait and see if this one gets the car rocking down at the Port later.....

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#1448390 - 11/01/2018 19:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Blanched Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/12/2009
Posts: 147
Loc: Karratha, WA
Certainly doesn't have the decent formation that Hilda did, interesting that it's in low shear with high SSTs and is a bit all over the place.

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#1448391 - 11/01/2018 20:02 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
I reckon itís a bit more SSE than south, might cross between Broome and Bidgy.... not up to cat 3 though. Thatís for sure with the current structure.

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#1448392 - 11/01/2018 20:12 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3488
Loc: Broome

Interesting technical info released by BOM at about 2.30pm WST.

Mentioning other models being a little bit of indecisive of steering influences and track.

Just shows you sometimes all the computer models in the world can't always forecast track a developing cyclone with so many dynamics to consider.

Tropical Cyclone Joyce [09U] formed Thursday morning off the west Kimberley
coast. It has been located using Broome radar and nearby surface observations.

Dvorak analysis remains difficult. Convective bands are present around the
system, but have been transient with little long lasting curvature. Convection
persists over the centre, but the Broome radar shows tight curvature underneath
this convection, and the system looks like it is continuing to develop. FT and
CI are based on MET of 3.0. ADT also has a CI of around 3.0. Intensity is set at
40 knots.

Ocean heat content is high and wind shear is low, so conditions are favourable
for Joyce to intensify further during Thursday. An upper level trough is passing
to the south, which has improved outflow and should aid development. Subtle
differences in the way global models handle this upper trough and the mid-level
ridge to the east result in considerable variations in the track. Some global
models still indicate Joyce will move on a more southerly track, crossing the
coast further east and sooner as a weaker system. Other models indicate a more
westerly track and cross the coast further west and later which would mean a
more intense cyclone.

The consensus results in a crossing sometime later on Friday on the east Pilbara
coast to the east of Port Hedland. Under this scenario, Joyce is likely to have
sufficient time to reach severe cyclone intensity.

Once inland the system will weaken, however, gales may persist in the NE and SE
quadrants due to the pressure gradient between the system and a ridge to the
south.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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