Page 1 of 2 1 2 >
Topic Options
#1448227 - 10/01/2018 01:36 Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25275
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
thought a thread would have been created on this system by now, looking likely to move off the coast tonight and rapidly intensify and be a named system by tonight.

_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

Top
#1448252 - 10/01/2018 09:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Ronfishes Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3627
Loc: Gordonvale
0531 10/1/18
_________________________




Top
#1448257 - 10/01/2018 10:22 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
opplevelse Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/08/2006
Posts: 733
Loc: Christiania, slightly east of ...
It seems to have been renamed 05S any ideas why?
_________________________
"Science is a lot like sex ... sometimes something useful comes out, but that's not the reason we do it." - Richard Feynman

Top
#1448334 - 11/01/2018 03:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3547
Loc: Broome
South West 10km/hr if Access R on the money then should be steering a even more Southerly track within the next few hours.

Details of Tropical Low at 11:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 16.4 degrees South, 122.2 degrees East , 175 kilometres north of Broome and 80 kilometres west of Cape Leveque .
Movement: southwest at 10 kilometres per hour .

The uncertainty in the forecast track means that it is still possible the system could impact coastal parts of the central and western Pilbara later Friday and Saturday.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

Top
#1448336 - 11/01/2018 04:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Blanched Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/12/2009
Posts: 147
Loc: Karratha, WA
Why are the BOM models (10 & 3 day) different to the forecast track map of this system?

Top
#1448351 - 11/01/2018 09:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3547
Loc: Broome




Details of Tropical Low at 5:00 am AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 16.7 degrees South, 121.8 degrees East , 145 kilometres north northwest of Broome and 125 kilometres west southwest of Cape Leveque .
Movement: southwest at 9 kilometres per hour .

The uncertainty in the forecast track means that it is still possible the system could impact coastal parts of the central and western Pilbara late on Friday or during Saturday.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

Top
#1448352 - 11/01/2018 09:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3547
Loc: Broome

Not sure on that one Blanched could only say that this system has been evolving and still is and the dynamics of this type of system makes it a hard one to predict.

Especially considering the steering mechanisms are also changing daily which also adds to the complexity of the forecasting and tracking situation.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

Top
#1448357 - 11/01/2018 11:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
I think Blanched that the reason they are different is that the 3 day/ 10 day only uses one model for its prediction, where as the forcast map for cyclones is made up by forcasters and a lot of different models.

Top
#1448362 - 11/01/2018 12:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
gecko Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2007
Posts: 411
Loc: Coconut Grove, Darwin, NT.
TC Joyce it is.

Forecast 3 at crossing.

Windy day/night at Broome coming. Max gust so far 67 km/h.

Top
#1448364 - 11/01/2018 12:25 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 806
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Good luck for those in its path....stay safe peps


Edited by rainthisway (11/01/2018 12:25)
_________________________
Nikko

Travelling - Current location= Toomulla

MTD (July 2018]: 0.9mm
JUNE 2018: 0.9mm

Top
#1448367 - 11/01/2018 13:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
opplevelse Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/08/2006
Posts: 733
Loc: Christiania, slightly east of ...
Still a fair bit of variation between the models, although the GFS Ensembles are all pretty consistent, the CMC ones certainly are not, some have it running all the way along the coast! Therefore I am inclined to believe GFS.

The next 36hrs will be very interesting.
_________________________
"Science is a lot like sex ... sometimes something useful comes out, but that's not the reason we do it." - Richard Feynman

Top
#1448368 - 11/01/2018 13:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Blanched Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/12/2009
Posts: 147
Loc: Karratha, WA
Yeah its been different since the onset of the track maps, it has Hedland/Karratha copping it in the BOM models but the track map has been fairly consistent on an 80-mile beach sort of area.

Only time will tell, hopefully it crosses over the less populated areas.

Top
#1448372 - 11/01/2018 15:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 319
Loc: Karratha, WA
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

Details of Tropical Cyclone Joyce at 11:00 am AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 17.0 degrees South, 121.6 degrees East , 125 kilometres north northwest of Broome and 155 kilometres west southwest of Cape Leveque .
Movement: south southwest at 7 kilometres per hour .

The uncertainty in the forecast track means that it is still possible the system could impact coastal parts of the central and western Pilbara late on Friday or during Saturday.


She's finally turning, SSW now instead of SW. Slight speed up from 6 to 7kmph.

Top
#1448377 - 11/01/2018 15:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Blanched]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 319
Loc: Karratha, WA
Originally Posted By: Blanched
Yeah its been different since the onset of the track maps, it has Hedland/Karratha copping it in the BOM models but the track map has been fairly consistent on an 80-mile beach sort of area.
.


Hey Blanched, looks like it's been resolved now. Long range models have just updated and they look to match.

Top
#1448384 - 11/01/2018 17:59 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 319
Loc: Karratha, WA
Details of Tropical Cyclone Joyce at 2:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 17.3 degrees South, 121.7 degrees East , 90 kilometres northwest of Broome and 155 kilometres north of Bidyadanga .
Movement: south at 9 kilometres per hour


Speeding up further to 9kmph and directly south, which may make up for the movement it made last night further west than predicted.

Top
#1448388 - 11/01/2018 19:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
All over the shop this one. Seems to be racing to the coast now. Bidgy area maybe. Pretty lightish winds in Broome considering with heavy rain though which is nice. Gauge filling fast.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1448389 - 11/01/2018 19:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Yeah straight south now by the look of it pops. Thought you might have headed down Wallal way before the highway was closed at 4. Anyway wait and see if this one gets the car rocking down at the Port later.....

Top
#1448390 - 11/01/2018 19:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Blanched Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/12/2009
Posts: 147
Loc: Karratha, WA
Certainly doesn't have the decent formation that Hilda did, interesting that it's in low shear with high SSTs and is a bit all over the place.

Top
#1448391 - 11/01/2018 20:02 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
I reckon itís a bit more SSE than south, might cross between Broome and Bidgy.... not up to cat 3 though. Thatís for sure with the current structure.

Top
#1448392 - 11/01/2018 20:12 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3547
Loc: Broome

Interesting technical info released by BOM at about 2.30pm WST.

Mentioning other models being a little bit of indecisive of steering influences and track.

Just shows you sometimes all the computer models in the world can't always forecast track a developing cyclone with so many dynamics to consider.

Tropical Cyclone Joyce [09U] formed Thursday morning off the west Kimberley
coast. It has been located using Broome radar and nearby surface observations.

Dvorak analysis remains difficult. Convective bands are present around the
system, but have been transient with little long lasting curvature. Convection
persists over the centre, but the Broome radar shows tight curvature underneath
this convection, and the system looks like it is continuing to develop. FT and
CI are based on MET of 3.0. ADT also has a CI of around 3.0. Intensity is set at
40 knots.

Ocean heat content is high and wind shear is low, so conditions are favourable
for Joyce to intensify further during Thursday. An upper level trough is passing
to the south, which has improved outflow and should aid development. Subtle
differences in the way global models handle this upper trough and the mid-level
ridge to the east result in considerable variations in the track. Some global
models still indicate Joyce will move on a more southerly track, crossing the
coast further east and sooner as a weaker system. Other models indicate a more
westerly track and cross the coast further west and later which would mean a
more intense cyclone.

The consensus results in a crossing sometime later on Friday on the east Pilbara
coast to the east of Port Hedland. Under this scenario, Joyce is likely to have
sufficient time to reach severe cyclone intensity.

Once inland the system will weaken, however, gales may persist in the NE and SE
quadrants due to the pressure gradient between the system and a ridge to the
south.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

Top
#1448400 - 11/01/2018 21:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Blanched Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/12/2009
Posts: 147
Loc: Karratha, WA
Latest map has it closer to the coast as most above suggested. Still Cat 3 but have to be low end if it is, surely it'll be influenced by staying so close to land.

Top
#1448410 - 11/01/2018 22:05 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: opplevelse]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 441
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: opplevelse
It seems to have been renamed 05S any ideas why?

Because 96s is the Invest number (Invests are numbered from 90 to 99) and the S stands for South-East Indian Ocean (Region VII - Perth forecast centre).
An invest in meteorology (short for investigative area, alternatively written INVEST) is a designated area of disturbed weather that is being monitored for tropical cyclone development. Invests are designated by three separate forecast centers: the National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

05s is the storm number and is given when the system reaches tropical storm strength or stronger.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invest_(meteorology)


Edited by Red Watch (11/01/2018 22:14)

Top
#1448423 - 12/01/2018 00:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Nice rain and gentle breeze here in Broome. And thats about it I think.

Top
#1448426 - 12/01/2018 01:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Blanched Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/12/2009
Posts: 147
Loc: Karratha, WA
Hahaha we had a bunch of wooden high table blow over in Wickham! Those outer bands but 😂😂

Top
#1448443 - 12/01/2018 10:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5091
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Well there you go. Over land and won't go any higher than a cat 1. Looks like a QLD system to me

Top
#1448447 - 12/01/2018 11:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3547
Loc: Broome
What a difference a day makes....

Never really fired up as lots of models predicted.

Can she resurface or is the show nearly over ...for us anyway.

5.51 am WST Track Map
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

Top
#1448448 - 12/01/2018 11:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3547
Loc: Broome

Cards are being thrown on the table with this one.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1915 UTC 11/01/2018
Name: Tropical Cyclone Joyce


REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Joyce [09U] formed Thursday morning off the west Kimberley
coast. It has been located using Broome radar. Recent movement has seen the
system accelerate towards the southeast moving the cyclone closer to the west
Kimberley coast.

Dvorak analysis remains difficult due to the small size of the central
circulation. Convection continues to blow up near the centre but no large scale,
long lived curved banding has been evident which makes applying a Dvorak pattern
difficult. The convection that persists over the centre coincides with the tight
curvature around the centre location on the Broome radar. FT and CI are based on
some DTs of 3.0 with weighting given to a MET/PAT of 3.0. ADT has increased
during the evening, climbing to 3.9, as has SATCON intensity at 56 knots
[1-minute mean]. which is higher with the official intensity of 45 knots.

The centre has become scrappy on radar and the close proximity of land may be
inhibiting further development. The system is expected to remain near the coast
without any further development before moving inland and weakening. Ocean heat
content is high and wind shear is low, so conditions remain favourable for Joyce
to intensify further if it were to move offshore, however this now seems
unlikely.

Significant rainfall is likely across WA as the system tracks across the
Pilbara, Gascoyne and towards the southwest of the state.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

Top
#1448452 - 12/01/2018 12:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Gee glad I didn't waste my time chasing that one. What a let down. Was pretty quiet around town not all that much wind, nice amount of rain for Broome so far with 109mm for the event with hopefully more to come today. Lots more fingers crossed.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1448469 - 12/01/2018 14:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
CraigA74 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2007
Posts: 1251
Loc: Diamond Valley Qld
Hopefully that west kick she's taken back off the coast will give us a little bit of excitement down here in Hedland. Wind is starting to pick up finally and looks like a heap of rain on the way

Top
#1448493 - 12/01/2018 18:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
She is hop, skipping and jumping all over the coast

Top
Page 1 of 2 1 2 >


Who's Online
1 registered (Weary), 324 Guests and 4 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Ladybeetle, Roddy001
Forum Stats
29611 Members
32 Forums
23933 Topics
1494381 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image