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#1448282 - 10/01/2018 13:12 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 319
Loc: Karratha, WA
Haha no worries - I only copied and pasted.

I sometimes wish there was a like button too, but I think it would detract from the discussion on other threads within this forum. The lighter threads like this one would be sweet. Heavier threads like the Climate Driver discussion wouldn't work though.

On another note - this cyclone season and the last have been so much better with the new satellite that went up. Having 10 minute sat pics rather than hourly really lets you see the circulation and cloud development. I hope for the younger generation coming through having such visual aids encourages them to be interested in climate/weather observation.

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#1448292 - 10/01/2018 15:11 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3547
Loc: Broome


Still tracking west at 10km/hr ...interesting to see when the more southerly swing going to take place ....
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1448293 - 10/01/2018 15:14 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3547
Loc: Broome

A few variables definitely still in play with this system.

From Bom :

Details of Tropical Low at 11:00 am AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 16.4 degrees South, 122.6 degrees East , 150 kilometres northwest of Derby and 175 kilometres north northeast of Broome .
Movement: west at 10 kilometres per hour .

A tropical low is now offshore from the west Kimberley coast and may develop into a tropical cyclone overnight or during Thursday. There is a risk of a severe tropical cyclone impact over the far western Kimberley and far eastern Pilbara late Thursday or Friday. There is some uncertainty in the forecast track, and it is still possible the system could impact coastal parts of the central and western Pilbara during Friday and Saturday.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1448298 - 10/01/2018 16:43 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
opplevelse Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/08/2006
Posts: 733
Loc: Christiania, slightly east of ...
New BoM Track map is expected in 1.5 hrs, but looking at animated VIS sat I am wondering if the LLCC is actually a fair bit further north than the last positioning. By below I make it ~ 122E and 16S, but last BOM had it at 122.6E, 16.4S and last JTWC (#2) had it at 123.1E 17.0S.

Unfortunately most of what you can see below is high level cirrus from the Cb tops, and that may not be indicative of the LLCC location. There is no recent SAT passes for good MW coverage which would help considerably.

But given the low VShear, it cant be that far off the centre as indicated by the VIS image. IF it is closer to 122E, 16S, then that could change the guidance considerably.


Edited by opplevelse (10/01/2018 16:44)
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#1448320 - 10/01/2018 22:33 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
CraigA74 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2007
Posts: 1251
Loc: Diamond Valley Qld
New advice out. Now she's out over warm open water should see her start to ramp up a bit. Interested to see when the southerly motion kicks in.... hopefully sooner rather than later. Used to be fun when I lived here but there's nothing worse than being stuck in camp when a cyclones around now haha


Edited by CraigA74 (10/01/2018 22:36)

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#1448329 - 11/01/2018 00:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3547
Loc: Broome

Going slightly more south now.
Can see it on the latest sat pic.

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 16.2 degrees South, 122.5 degrees East , 195 kilometres north of Broome and 50 kilometres west northwest of Cape Leveque .
Movement: west southwest at 6 kilometres per hour .

The uncertainty in the forecast track means that it is still possible the system could impact coastal parts of the central and western Pilbara during Friday and Saturday
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1448330 - 11/01/2018 01:12 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: CraigA74]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: CraigA74
Interested to see when the southerly motion kicks in.... hopefully sooner rather than later.

That's the spirit Craig haha. Send it closer to me please. Hope you are well havn't seen you on here for ages. cheers
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1448331 - 11/01/2018 01:37 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
opplevelse Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/08/2006
Posts: 733
Loc: Christiania, slightly east of ...
Yep def southerly movement over last few hours. Good for lower intensity. JTWC had it at 16.1S (8pm), BoM at 16.2S (9pm), looks to be 16.6S or so now (10:30pm) based on Radar.
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"Science is a lot like sex ... sometimes something useful comes out, but that's not the reason we do it." - Richard Feynman

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#1448332 - 11/01/2018 01:45 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25275
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
please use the threat for this tropical low for further discussion

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...t_J#Post1448227

will reopen this thread in a few days after this system passes.
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June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1449244 - 18/01/2018 20:00 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Lastes EC runs starting to spin up a big Pilbara basher in about a weeks time.

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#1449374 - 19/01/2018 20:28 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah they keep coming thick and fast this year. What a season so far. Hope it keeps up right through til April.
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#1449375 - 19/01/2018 20:48 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Later runs seem to be suggesting something similar to Hilda, Joyce path. It's funny this year how the models from a long way out suggest big systems heading west and maybe with a Pilbara / Gascoyne recurve but as they get closer they adapt to the ridging, or lack of, and suggest similar paths hugging coast.

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#1449797 - 23/01/2018 14:13 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
StevefromSurfers Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 294
Loc: Surfers Paradise
Thats a real nasty one for Port Hedland which GFS are forecasting for next Tuesday. 897 hPa, 200km/h winds and a direct hit. Hope that changes for the locals sake.



Edited by StevefromSurfers (23/01/2018 14:16)

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#1449812 - 23/01/2018 15:46 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12962
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
GFS has dropped that already.
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#1449873 - 23/01/2018 21:32 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Blanched Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/12/2009
Posts: 147
Loc: Karratha, WA
Geez it's humid in K-Town right now!

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#1450086 - 25/01/2018 14:20 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
BIG rain dumping LOW heading WA's way over the weekend. Should be a wet one. I wonder if it can manage to sneak its toes offshore and gain TC status. Fun days a head, mould, mozzies, humidity so much to look forward to haha.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1450122 - 25/01/2018 18:18 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1230
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
a quick squiz at WA on the EC model on the WZ website. I'm thinking I'm seeing the EC model ramping up a substantial low over land
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The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1450281 - 26/01/2018 17:36 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
How good does this sound from the Western Region cyclone outlook from BOM.
"A tropical low lies well inland over the west the Northern Territory, about 230
km east southeast of Kununurra. It is forecast to move slowly west or southwest
over the next few days and should move into the Kimberley on Saturday. It
should remain over land for at least the next few days, and so it is unlikely
to develop into a tropical cyclone. However, it is expected to develop into a
deep monsoon low by Sunday, and as a result damaging winds and heavy rain will
be possible over parts of the Kimberley. Gales and heavy surf conditions may
develop along the north and northwest Kimberley coast on Sunday. Severe Weather
Warnings will be issued for this system as required.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1450680 - 29/01/2018 10:13 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Nice banding starting to be picked up by radar in the Low this morning, great squalls as well. Can she deepen more and just drift off the coast for a bit?

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#1450705 - 29/01/2018 13:11 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yes Sepo was a pretty exciting night once that first squall hit. 40+knts and some great falls. Might hang around for a bit hopefully.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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