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#1448400 - 11/01/2018 21:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Blanched Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/12/2009
Posts: 147
Loc: Karratha, WA
Latest map has it closer to the coast as most above suggested. Still Cat 3 but have to be low end if it is, surely it'll be influenced by staying so close to land.

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#1448410 - 11/01/2018 22:05 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: opplevelse]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 441
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: opplevelse
It seems to have been renamed 05S any ideas why?

Because 96s is the Invest number (Invests are numbered from 90 to 99) and the S stands for South-East Indian Ocean (Region VII - Perth forecast centre).
An invest in meteorology (short for investigative area, alternatively written INVEST) is a designated area of disturbed weather that is being monitored for tropical cyclone development. Invests are designated by three separate forecast centers: the National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

05s is the storm number and is given when the system reaches tropical storm strength or stronger.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invest_(meteorology)


Edited by Red Watch (11/01/2018 22:14)

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#1448423 - 12/01/2018 00:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Nice rain and gentle breeze here in Broome. And thats about it I think.

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#1448426 - 12/01/2018 01:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Blanched Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/12/2009
Posts: 147
Loc: Karratha, WA
Hahaha we had a bunch of wooden high table blow over in Wickham! Those outer bands but 😂😂

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#1448443 - 12/01/2018 10:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5091
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Well there you go. Over land and won't go any higher than a cat 1. Looks like a QLD system to me

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#1448447 - 12/01/2018 11:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3546
Loc: Broome
What a difference a day makes....

Never really fired up as lots of models predicted.

Can she resurface or is the show nearly over ...for us anyway.

5.51 am WST Track Map
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1448448 - 12/01/2018 11:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3546
Loc: Broome

Cards are being thrown on the table with this one.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1915 UTC 11/01/2018
Name: Tropical Cyclone Joyce


REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Joyce [09U] formed Thursday morning off the west Kimberley
coast. It has been located using Broome radar. Recent movement has seen the
system accelerate towards the southeast moving the cyclone closer to the west
Kimberley coast.

Dvorak analysis remains difficult due to the small size of the central
circulation. Convection continues to blow up near the centre but no large scale,
long lived curved banding has been evident which makes applying a Dvorak pattern
difficult. The convection that persists over the centre coincides with the tight
curvature around the centre location on the Broome radar. FT and CI are based on
some DTs of 3.0 with weighting given to a MET/PAT of 3.0. ADT has increased
during the evening, climbing to 3.9, as has SATCON intensity at 56 knots
[1-minute mean]. which is higher with the official intensity of 45 knots.

The centre has become scrappy on radar and the close proximity of land may be
inhibiting further development. The system is expected to remain near the coast
without any further development before moving inland and weakening. Ocean heat
content is high and wind shear is low, so conditions remain favourable for Joyce
to intensify further if it were to move offshore, however this now seems
unlikely.

Significant rainfall is likely across WA as the system tracks across the
Pilbara, Gascoyne and towards the southwest of the state.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1448452 - 12/01/2018 12:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Gee glad I didn't waste my time chasing that one. What a let down. Was pretty quiet around town not all that much wind, nice amount of rain for Broome so far with 109mm for the event with hopefully more to come today. Lots more fingers crossed.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1448469 - 12/01/2018 14:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
CraigA74 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2007
Posts: 1251
Loc: Diamond Valley Qld
Hopefully that west kick she's taken back off the coast will give us a little bit of excitement down here in Hedland. Wind is starting to pick up finally and looks like a heap of rain on the way

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#1448493 - 12/01/2018 18:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Joyce (96S) NW WA Coast - January 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
She is hop, skipping and jumping all over the coast

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