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#1483156 - 30/12/2018 09:38 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
Sorry RWM, do not know where RMV came from.

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#1483166 - 30/12/2018 10:06 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6818
Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
How much longer does the SE wind pattern stay, Weatherzone has it going for at least another week. Not complaining though keeping the summer temps pleasant .
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#1483167 - 30/12/2018 10:09 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6086
I posted a 15-day wind direction graphic in this thread the other day. But that's for Brisbane so it's not necessarily applicable to the central coast where you are.

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#1483176 - 30/12/2018 11:09 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Jaeger Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/02/2011
Posts: 121
Loc: Canberra/Brisbane
A solid 1.8mm just after midnight at Ferny Hills; hopefully some of it soaked in.

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#1483285 - 31/12/2018 08:10 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
This really is the ridge from hell alright wonder if it will break before winter🤔

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#1483289 - 31/12/2018 08:38 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..31 DEC 2018 TIME..0735

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......26.5C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........61%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 18C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...E 16Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1018.0HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........2/8 cloud.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......30.3C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....22.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...21.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....19C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1017.6Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 36kph at 1533
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... No significant weather.

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#1483318 - 31/12/2018 12:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 389
Loc: Golden Beach
How can a high pressure system sit stationary for such a huge length of time and not break down or reach equilibrium as would a low pressure system? Bloody thing had been there for weeks.

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#1483319 - 31/12/2018 12:05 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6086
Because Australia poke

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#1483331 - 31/12/2018 13:06 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Correct me if wrong but when the upper levels become less chaotic asin no signs of polar or sub tropical jets and the smaller systems at MSLP just meander for weeks on end,basically they are cut off from any sort of west to east flow and justlike clockwork it will sit there for most of summer.

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#1483334 - 31/12/2018 13:17 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Without any significant fronts to buzz em off the old highs just keep getting reinforced by new highs very annoying pattern.

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#1483350 - 31/12/2018 14:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: TWEEDSTORM]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
This really is the ridge from hell alright wonder if it will break before winter🤔


MIGHT start to slowly break down toward end of 2019. Reason given in Space Weather thread.


Edited by retired weather man (31/12/2018 14:18)

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#1483359 - 31/12/2018 14:35 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Hahahah😅

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#1483362 - 31/12/2018 14:44 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Reckon its going to be an active TC season already showing signs of life.

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#1483402 - 31/12/2018 18:28 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7897
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
EC's final frame this afternoon shows a good example of at least one factor needed for a tropical low or TC to potentially dip southwards - a stronger front pushing through inland NSW and QLD which would help erode this bloody ridge allowing tropical moisture to filter south again. You'd then need said front to stay slow-moving or else it'd take everything off the coast rather quickly. So many other variables of course but that's just one of them. Fat chance of anything at that range sticking though. GFS just keeps us ridged in.

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#1483409 - 31/12/2018 18:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
GFS steering winds for maybe TC ( 30,000 ft ) are currently SW meaning maybe TC will not head south, however by Thursday/Friday these winds are expected ( says GFS ) to turn more NW, so if maybe TC hangs around long enough ( 3 days )over the Cape area the NW steering winds might shift it more this way.

Anyway by the law of averages with only 12.2mm for January in 2018 surely this will improve in 2019. Knowing SEQ often around the Australia Day weekend, just in time for school, the rains start.

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#1483413 - 31/12/2018 18:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: retired weather man]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6086
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
GFS steering winds for maybe TC ( 30,000 ft ) are currently SW meaning maybe TC will not head south, however by Thursday/Friday these winds are expected ( says GFS ) to turn more NW, so if maybe TC hangs around long enough ( 3 days )over the Cape area the NW steering winds might shift it more this way.

Considering the system isn't quite a TC yet and it isn't as deep as one yet, the main steering influence for the system up until now has likely been the ESE'lies and the ridging extending up QLD (hence the westerly track up until now).
Could also easily see the easterly shear displace most of the deeper convection out to its west on satpics which has been hampering significant development up until now (together with the typical diurnal daytime min in convection).

But deep strong monsoonal WNW'lies strengthen to the north of the system soon so if shear can weaken and it can intensify further over those warm soupy waters of the Gulf, its deeper structure will probably start getting grabbed by those WNW'lies and do the eventual U-turn back towards the ESE.

Longer term looks pretty uncertain after it comes back out into the Coral Sea though (provided it survives the Cape crossing as a closed non-TC system). No doubt there'll be continued talk about whether it stays well out to sea or tries to come back towards the coast.


Edited by Ken Kato (31/12/2018 19:01)
Edit Reason: typo

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#1483425 - 31/12/2018 19:34 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Happy new year all, see ya next year.

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#1483428 - 31/12/2018 19:40 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
On ACCESS global ( SH) the Jetstream is peaking in amplitude over SW WA and dipping SE , missing Australia this week.
The Jetstream may have contracted south as it does during the summer. It may be an anomaly. ( further south than average).( re: persistent ridging)?
However .. Can see an upper trough (200hpa)over eastern quadrant of Australia this Thursday 3rd to sunday..6th Jan(T+15hrs)
Something of interest in our weather.
We are in the exit branch during this time. Haven't checked the forecast but will be interesting feature l suppose.

source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
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