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#1448852 - 15/01/2018 12:56 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Nature's Fury]
gberg Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2015
Posts: 91
Loc: noosaville
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Since when do we get clear skies and no wind the day after a big southerly has come through? Very strange.


Thats whats i was thinking for up here on the sunny coast... Talked to a rep on the goldie just before though who said it was blowing a gale still??

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#1448857 - 15/01/2018 13:41 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: gberg]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6086
Originally Posted By: gberg
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Since when do we get clear skies and no wind the day after a big southerly has come through? Very strange.


Thats whats i was thinking for up here on the sunny coast... Talked to a rep on the goldie just before though who said it was blowing a gale still??


That's fairly common for SE QLD when we get a southerly flow (even if it's a strong synoptic flow) due to the shape of the coastline and terrain.

Many areas in SE QLD just inland of the coast tend to be far more sheltered from the strong southerly flow due to the abrupt high terrain of the Scenic Rim and land to our south (which also refracts the southerlies around to a more onshore direction onto inland SE QLD) while the more exposed parts of the coastal fringe and islands and especially the more exposed south-southeast facing parts of the NSW coast feel the southerlies a lot more.

There's been many instances of a very strong synoptic-scale southerly flow here due to a big low in the Tasman but areas just inland of the coastal fringe have barely felt it while the coast and islands get a good blow.

It's a different case when we get winds from most other directions though. Even strong NW/W/SW winds tend to be gusty here as the turbulent flow on the leeward side of the higher inland terrain helps to mix down stronger gusts to the surface.


Edited by Ken Kato (15/01/2018 13:45)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1448980 - 16/01/2018 13:22 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Golden State Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 220
Loc: Buderim
Well, so much for the wetter than average January forecast.. not a drop in sight for at least another week and we've barely had a quarter of our average rainfall for this month.
_________________________
Just rain FFS

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#1448985 - 16/01/2018 14:08 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Adam Ant Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/10/2003
Posts: 1075
Loc: West Toowoomba
I would be happy for a quarter of our average rainfall at this stage. As it stands, it is currently the 2nd driest January in 120 years at Westbrook (on the western side of Toowoomba).

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#1448994 - 16/01/2018 16:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Adam Ant]
redbucket Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 324
Loc: Regency Downs, Lockyer Valley
Originally Posted By: Adam Ant
I would be happy for a quarter of our average rainfall at this stage. As it stands, it is currently the 2nd driest January in 120 years at Westbrook (on the western side of Toowoomba).


Yeah, it's bloody dry out that way. We've had 2.4mm at home at Regency Downs so far.

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#1449001 - 16/01/2018 18:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
10mm to date Wynnum North. Average is 158mm.

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#1449006 - 16/01/2018 19:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Dalby Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 16/12/2012
Posts: 5
Well.. after the forecast for LaNina and wetter than normal conditions I and many other primary producers set about doing what we do to support our families - investing $$ to grow a crop so others can eat and we can make enough to feed ourselves and educate our kids. $400K plus invested here on the CBAs' behalf, and needing rain right now to get through with no rain in sight. BOM and others need to be very careful with what they predict as the consequences for consistently getting it wrong can be fatal - have a look at rural suicide figures. We will be OK but others may not. Tough times.. Dorothy McKellar certainly got it right!

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#1449010 - 16/01/2018 19:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1669
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Concur Dalby as I was thinking the other day how this la nina isn't panning out as i would have thought. But there is a note that says %30 of la nina's are dryer than normal which i think this one falls into that category. One sign for me is that when a goood nina is active, you get a south east wind and it is always overcast in the Brisbane area so this nina is not living up to any projections. A constant high off the coast is not helping. I can't see any good signs for the last month and a half of summer. It actually feels more like am el nino. Crazy
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1449016 - 16/01/2018 20:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1267
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Agreed Dalby, it seems since the 2010-2011 floods, 90% of the big rains predicted for our area hasnt panned out. I've virtually given up looking at long terms forecasts or anything more than 3-4 days out now. If we get it, we get it. Hope we get something soon to help the farmers out. Getting dry again already.
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2019 - 182mm Jan - .5 Feb - 1.5, Mar - 143, Apr - 0, May - 8, June - 29

2018 - 508.2
2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1449017 - 16/01/2018 20:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1266
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Iím sure we know what impact certain drivers have on weather , but Iím not so sure we have a good handle on what the variations can deliver. Sometimes a pattern brings rain , other times , same thing doesnít. Itís well beyond me, but thatís just the nature of things and if we knew it all , it wouldnít be as captivating.

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#1449020 - 16/01/2018 21:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1669
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
YEAH, I'M WITH LANI, I JUST STARTED GOING BACK TO THE 3 TO 4 DAY OUTLOOKS AND IF IT RAINS IT RAINS IF IT DOESN'T SAY LA VI - SORRY LEFT CAPS LOCK ON
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1449023 - 16/01/2018 21:41 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
Major rainfall events in SE QLD occur on average every 3-4 years but in the 20th century there were 3 periods where we went 10 consecutive years or more with out a major event (the longest being 14 years).

God help us when we see a repeat of such dry spells given current water demand in SE QLD
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1449027 - 16/01/2018 22:29 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1880
Loc: Kingaroy
Some of the crops around Kingaroy are not looking too healthy, major crop failures could be on the cards if rain doesn't fall soon.

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#1449030 - 16/01/2018 22:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Locke]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Locke
Major rainfall events in SE QLD occur on average every 3-4 years but in the 20th century there were 3 periods where we went 10 consecutive years or more with out a major event (the longest being 14 years).

God help us when we see a repeat of such dry spells given current water demand in SE QLD


We've had exceptional rain events every 2 years in SEQ this decade (2011 floods, 2013 Oswald, 2015 May ECL, 2017 Debbie). Before that though it was very quiet coinciding with the Millennium drought. The last exceptional rain event in SEQ before 2010 was the 1996 event/minor flood. We had the hybrid cyclone in the early 00s and the ECL that dumped nearly a metre at Rainbow Bay, but they weren't proper SEQ-wide rain events like we've had more recently. I honestly thought there would never be another flood like 1974 ever again and that was a feeling shared by many I'm sure.

Even with the rain events this decade we seem to have long dry spells and then a dramatic rain event before returning to long-term dry patterns. I'm also interested to see if we have a 3'rd record warm autumn/winter in a row or if we're done with that.

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#1449032 - 16/01/2018 22:57 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea its a crazy ol world, you can almost guarantee it won't be the last time you see any of those extremes again. Unfortunately the drought probably is the worst.. things seem pretty normal at the moment but yea its abit quiet.

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#1449033 - 16/01/2018 23:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Was going to add to my post that the Tasman low should eventually go towards the pole. There was a few model where it lingered even came further north but that could be blocking some of the warmer humid air by tilting the ridge but in a weeks time it changes again.


Edited by Steve O (16/01/2018 23:16)

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#1449058 - 17/01/2018 08:57 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
Looks like my occasional thoughts about solar activity, or lack of, overriding various indices may have legs.

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#1449072 - 17/01/2018 10:04 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1925
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
I agree RWM ,I believe the solar cycle has a affect on the climate .
Also solar cycle 25 looks like it may have a double dip or longer cycle this time .Bit crap for my radio hobby ,Thinking of taking antennas down and putting up a webcam that i have been going to put up for some time lol. I also have concerns how sometimes when the cycle is on the way up the sun throws off a big flare .The consequences in today's world would send us back to the 1900s or worse.Not all doom and gloom ,just have to see what happens lol.
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.

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#1449078 - 17/01/2018 10:53 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6086

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#1449084 - 17/01/2018 11:16 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1868
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: gberg
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Since when do we get clear skies and no wind the day after a big southerly has come through? Very strange.


Thats whats i was thinking for up here on the sunny coast... Talked to a rep on the goldie just before though who said it was blowing a gale still??


That's fairly common for SE QLD when we get a southerly flow (even if it's a strong synoptic flow) due to the shape of the coastline and terrain.

Many areas in SE QLD just inland of the coast tend to be far more sheltered from the strong southerly flow due to the abrupt high terrain of the Scenic Rim and land to our south (which also refracts the southerlies around to a more onshore direction onto inland SE QLD) while the more exposed parts of the coastal fringe and islands and especially the more exposed south-southeast facing parts of the NSW coast feel the southerlies a lot more.

There's been many instances of a very strong synoptic-scale southerly flow here due to a big low in the Tasman but areas just inland of the coastal fringe have barely felt it while the coast and islands get a good blow.

It's a different case when we get winds from most other directions though. Even strong NW/W/SW winds tend to be gusty here as the turbulent flow on the leeward side of the higher inland terrain helps to mix down stronger gusts to the surface.



Ken i'm curious as to how terrain can effect our weather, given the mountains are not really that high in this part of the world when you compare it to the Rocky's and other larger mountain areas around the world. For example, I was driving the other day towards Toowoomba near Gatton, you look at the Great Divide, and it doesn't look that big in contrast , yet my car struggled to make it to the top of Toowoomba range lol.

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