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#1459731 - 30/03/2018 09:35 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
There have been new AWS’s for Defence being added to various places around the country in recent times including those around Townsville, Singleton, etc.

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#1459742 - 30/03/2018 10:30 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 675
Loc: Bardon 4065
Thanks Ken
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#1459754 - 30/03/2018 12:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
It is looking increasingly likely that after a transition towards the coast(either crossing or skimming close to the coast near the central coast), the low will likely move slowly south along the coast while causing heavy rains the whole way down. Not 100% obviously with this system, will keep us guessing all week I reckon.
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#1459796 - 30/03/2018 15:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea fingers crossed im not expecting it to drag back down the coast. Though was just looking at the spread on the 12z EC ensemble and even shows an area around the central QLD coast with some members if Im reading it right there is still a spread of scenarios bringing it back down the coast?

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#1459799 - 30/03/2018 15:41 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Steve O]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Unless something dramatic happens it's all NQ and possibly CQ show from here. Only one model shows southward movement and that is CMC which is about as reliable as praying for rain.

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#1459803 - 30/03/2018 16:15 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Miracles do happen, but not holding my breath, as much as I would like it to.

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#1459806 - 30/03/2018 16:46 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 389
Loc: Golden Beach
Don't think I have experienced such a warm and humid southeasterly breeze. Would it be tropical air swinging under the low and on to the coast?

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#1459808 - 30/03/2018 16:53 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Funny you say that Snapper, I was pondering exactly the same thing when I was driving back home from the Gold Coast late this morning.

There’s a long easterly fetch of the wind flow over the ocean rather than southeasterly and those winds are also blowing over a large expanse of warmer than normal waters.

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#1459814 - 30/03/2018 17:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 389
Loc: Golden Beach
Just haven't had that Autumnal feeling at all yet. Maybe another summer type rain event still on the cards.


Edited by Snapper22lb (30/03/2018 17:30)

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#1459817 - 30/03/2018 17:41 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Aussea Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2012
Posts: 63
Loc: Taree, Nsw
I am expecting an eventual visit from the carcass of ex cyclone Iris to the Sunny Coast (yeah fat chance I know), mirroring ex cyclone Debbie's autumn switching arrival - on March 30 last year. Debbie vacuumed all the oppressive lingering humidity out at the time etc (unfortunately transferring destructive flooding rains to locations to the south of us), then bingo - the coolness of autumn kicked in here.

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#1459822 - 30/03/2018 18:34 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10670
Loc: SWR
I find autumn usually doesn't kick in here until either early or mid April.
March to early/mid April does a subtle transition from 'high-summer' to 'low-summer', by that I mean the constant humid to very humid warmth of summer starts to crack a little with the odd moderately humid day/night or milder day/night occurring.
During the early/mid April period, the "flip" happens. Sometimes very suddenly (e.g. after a decent front or weather system clears) or sometimes by attrition. By late April, you find moderately humid days and/or milder days/nights are now ruling with the occasional appearance of low humidity. The conditions are nearly always comfortable for most people.

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#1459824 - 30/03/2018 19:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Latest CMC run:



And the big falls are on the day of the Com Games opening ceremony. Would be hysterical.

Very unlikely to happen though. CMC has the low making landfall around Mackay then coast hugging SE re-intensifying. EC has the same landfall but then sends the low back out to sea into NE Coral Sea. GFS washes out over NQ and then has separate vortices forming out in the CS.

So looks like we know generally where it's going but not what it will do after. I think CMC's outcome is highly unlikely though.

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#1459836 - 30/03/2018 20:39 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Looks ominous to throw a spanner into the C.G. though. Wouldnt that be something historical. Watersports be awesome.
Heard black cockatoos today, havnt heard them since last summer/autumn. Harbinger?

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#1459838 - 30/03/2018 20:45 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Would need a mid/upper trough to be placed to the west sort of like your classic ECL setup for that scenario. Not seeing it yet the CMC scenario would be the least likely as most models were showing mid level and upper level ridging in the area?

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#1459840 - 30/03/2018 20:51 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Yea, doesnt look that promising. Hm.
Still, damn humid, showery drizzle, black cockies, see what happens.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (30/03/2018 21:00)

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#1459867 - 31/03/2018 05:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Steve O]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Steve O
Would need a mid/upper trough to be placed to the west sort of like your classic ECL setup for that scenario.


Precisely how I look at it, and it needs to be slow moving to allow for enough time for the low to ride its steering influence south. Otherwise, if it weakens and/or pushes too far east too quickly, it will introduce strong upper level westerlies which will drag it out to sea (which some models are doing).

Interesting there is a trend southward this morning in the modelling though and also re-intensification. CMC, ICON, NAVGEM all somewhat further south as a second much stronger shortwave amplifies through the western interior of QLD and remains slow moving. UKMET also redevelops Iris to 'INTENSE' while moving SE (but further out to sea), EC deepens Iris and moves her towards the Central Coast but second shortwave moves too quickly across QLD thus dragging her back out to sea. GFS still washes her out entirely (huge outlier this morning).

Once again I keep using Iris to name this low but by no means is it a guarantee she will ever regain TC status.

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#1459904 - 31/03/2018 10:49 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
There have been new AWS’s for Defence being added to various places around the country in recent times including those around Townsville, Singleton, etc.


BTW I forgot to mention in my previous post that the rollout of the new AWS's at Canungra and Greenbank which are part of the Defence project covering NSW, QLD, SA and the NT have been in the pipeline for a number of months and aren't specifically for the Commonwealth Games.

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#1459928 - 31/03/2018 14:39 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
The rainfall/Decile etc map for March has just appeared on the Bureaus' climate section.Just looking at March and first three months of 2018 I wonder how the reality has turned out compared to the expectations.

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#1459948 - 31/03/2018 16:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 389
Loc: Golden Beach
Not a bureau basher at all but the forecasts for the last couple of days have been the worst ever considering the high stakes for a tourist centre. Not a drop, blue skies nice breeze!

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#1459949 - 31/03/2018 17:04 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Snapper22lb]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Not a bureau basher at all but the forecasts for the last couple of days have been the worst ever considering the high stakes for a tourist centre. Not a drop, blue skies nice breeze!


We've had showers here yesterday and earlier today. In fact, when I was down at the Gold Coast yesterday morning, we got rained on every time we went outside but with dry breaks in between.

The showers have been far fewer today though.

This was the radar-derived rainfall in the 24hrs up to 9am today:


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