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#1466992 - 06/07/2018 13:13 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1392
Loc: toowoomba
The fires in the UK are in peat bogs meaning they are very hard to put out.

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#1466997 - 06/07/2018 14:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Warwick Eye2Sky]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
All of these extremes is what one would expect as we descend into the Grand Solar Minimum. The same areas that had records broken in winter are now breaking records in summer. Upon further investigation, the heatwave in the USA is really nothing special. They have seen much hotter conditions in the past. Can't speak for Europe however. I did see wildfires in the UK, that seems a bit unusual.


In terms of the number of record-breaking temps, the US heatwaves definitely aren't notable but the general area of heat has been very persistent and of a high magnitude.
The magnitude of the record breaking heat across large sections of western Europe, sub-arctic and Siberia as well as Canada (e.g. Montreal got to 37C the other day which I believe is record breaking and over 30 people in Quebec have died in this week's heatwave) has been especially remarkable.

There's been a lot of talk on various online forums and a social media page about the whole solar minimum > record cold temps but I'm still yet to see any hard objective data to back it up. If there was such a strong correlation between the current big dip in solar activity and globally averaged temps in recent decades (when the effect of solar activity has been significantly overshadowed), it would show up as plain as day in the data but it doesn't and in fact, the two have been diverging for awhile - refer to the graph below from data via the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado:




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#1467001 - 06/07/2018 17:38 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1268
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
3mm today, our July total is slowly creeping up just like the grass hahahaha.
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2019 - 182mm Jan - .5 Feb - 1.5, Mar - 143, Apr - 0, May - 8, June - 29

2018 - 508.2
2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1467002 - 06/07/2018 18:25 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1868
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Thanks glen smile The deceleration and ďpiling upĒ of the winds as they start to come ashore may also be helping with the showers a bit as they come onto land as well.


Thanks for the explanation, just find it strange were getting this showers and low cloud from a northerly flow. Generally we get fine weather when we get winds from the north.

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#1467003 - 06/07/2018 19:01 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1266
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Surely the whole solar min amd max changes things here by three parts of bugger all. Iím a skeptic. If it changed things with any significance, that would be globally , not regional.

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#1467008 - 06/07/2018 21:13 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1254
Loc: Warwick, QLD
There is strong correlation between global temps and solar activity. This is well documented, especially in Greenland ice core samples. I have seen other charts similar to the one above that show very different results for recorded temps, like a dip in temps to account for the cool period of the 70's which I do not see above. Also, the decline in temps over the past 2 years. This chart above looks similar to the hockey stick graph that has already been discredited. If we can go back in time thousands of years we can see the bigger picture. I have seen charts that far back, it is a matter of finding and posting them. Again, I am not an expert, only throwing my 2 cents worth in from what I have seen from other sources. Cheers.
Michael
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1467011 - 06/07/2018 21:49 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1254
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Zonal flow in jet stream is the usual pattern we see, but in times of Solar Minimum, we see more of a meridional flow which allows the jet stream to wander north and south, bringing with it the record cold and record heat in the same locations as we have seen.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1467014 - 06/07/2018 21:51 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ahab Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 251
Loc: Brisbane, Indooroopilly
Moderate shower in Indooroopilly, Brisbane. The radar doesn't do justice really.

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#1467015 - 06/07/2018 22:22 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Warwick Eye2Sky]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
There is strong correlation between global temps and solar activity. This is well documented, especially in Greenland ice core samples. I have seen other charts similar to the one above that show very different results for recorded temps, like a dip in temps to account for the cool period of the 70's which I do not see above. Also, the decline in temps over the past 2 years. This chart above looks similar to the hockey stick graph that has already been discredited. If we can go back in time thousands of years we can see the bigger picture. I have seen charts that far back, it is a matter of finding and posting them. Again, I am not an expert, only throwing my 2 cents worth in from what I have seen from other sources. Cheers.
Michael


Hence why I mentioned the lack of correlation in recent decades in my previous post (as opposed to further back) because the solar effect is now significantly overshadowed by the anthropogenic influence - see https://www.skepticalscience.com/grand-solar-minimum-mini-ice-age.htm (contains proper referencing to relevant research).

The plateau and dips in the 70s show up in every temp graph including the one I posted (note the thinner pale red line for the year to year temps). Where did you see the graphs which show a significantly larger drop and who made them? Virtually every graph out there from every reliable agency (NASA, NOAA, Bureau, etc) show similar.

The so-called discrediting of the hockey stick has been one of the most well-known and common myths thatís been perpetuated for years by the usual skeptics. If one digs deeper and checks out who these people are who try to discredit it, turns out the vast majority of them have no real life experience in climate science, nor are climate scientists. The discrediting itself has been extensively debunked by countless climate scientists many times over - see https://www.skepticalscience.com/broken-hockey-stick.htm

Anyway I can see where this is leading so Iíll leave it here for now.

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#1467017 - 06/07/2018 23:44 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I just HAD to share this....two outflow boundaries converging and......BOOM!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1013985812957089792

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#1467021 - 07/07/2018 08:04 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum

WYNNUM NORTH ( 1KM FROM MORETON BAY, BRISBANE, QLD ) - DAILY WEATHER

DATE...... 7 JUL 2018
TIME...... 0800

CURRENT TEMPERATURE.......19.2C
CURRENT HUMIDITY..........93%
CURRENT DEW POINT.........18C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED....NNW 8kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1015.2HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........10KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........Haze
RAIN SINCE 0900...........4.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......23.9C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....17.4C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...17.1C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT..18C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1016.9Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST.NNW 32kph at 1157.
LAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...Slight showers.

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#1467029 - 07/07/2018 11:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1254
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Thanks for the info Ken, the problem is that we as a human race simply cannot contribute to the affects you are describing...
https://iceage2050.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/slide-6.png

While you read this chart, please read the entire PDF. This kid took a lot of time and effort collecting this info from various resources.

Newest research.....
http://notrickszone.com/2018/06/28/what-...imate-alarmism/

More good resources....
www.iceagenow.info
www.realclimatescience.com

This is back from 2016. State of the Climate Report...
https://www.cfact.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016-State-of-the-Climate-Report.pdf

Information only and not meant to antagonise or insult in any way Ken. This is what science forums should be all about, a free exchange of ideas.

Thanks again for all of your knowledge and input into this forum Ken. You are very much appreciated! Cheers.

Michael
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1467031 - 07/07/2018 11:37 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
I suppose it is easy to get sidetracked with the above stuff. I mean, up this way the weather is such a constant disappointment. Looking at the latest drought map, from Toowoomba south to the border is now right up there with the worse drought areas of the country. The recent rain has been good in some areas at least.


Edited by NotsohopefulPete (07/07/2018 11:37)

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#1467035 - 07/07/2018 12:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1254
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Yes Pete, I totally agree. I think this is a hot topic isssue and we should just agree to disagree. Let us all just be mindful of the environment in everything we do.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1467036 - 07/07/2018 12:29 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1254
Loc: Warwick, QLD
This cycle has to end Pete. Let us look forward to better times ahead. It is hard to get excited about anything right now in these current conditions.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1467037 - 07/07/2018 12:35 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mezo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/12/2011
Posts: 742
Loc: Under the Meso (or Springfield...
Perfectly positioned under the train of showers here for the last hour or so. 4mm clocked up. Quite heavy at times.
_________________________
OzStorms | GT Photography

Springfield Weather Obs

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#1467038 - 07/07/2018 12:41 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
I don't know Michael. The weather over the last week has shown the exact pattern of the last nine months. I have actually thought about asking the moderators for our own thread, "the Southern downs desperate whingers thread" so the other posters do not have to put up with us or especially me.
cheers

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#1467039 - 07/07/2018 12:46 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1254
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Lol, I agree Pete! Heading to the Lions game now at the Gabba. Getting very dark!
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1467040 - 07/07/2018 12:49 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Warwick Eye2Sky]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
Thanks for the info Ken, the problem is that we as a human race simply cannot contribute to the affects you are describing...
https://iceage2050.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/slide-6.png

While you read this chart, please read the entire PDF. This kid took a lot of time and effort collecting this info from various resources.

Newest research.....
http://notrickszone.com/2018/06/28/what-...imate-alarmism/

More good resources....
www.iceagenow.info
www.realclimatescience.com

This is back from 2016. State of the Climate Report...
https://www.cfact.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016-State-of-the-Climate-Report.pdf

Information only and not meant to antagonise or insult in any way Ken. This is what science forums should be all about, a free exchange of ideas.

Thanks again for all of your knowledge and input into this forum Ken. You are very much appreciated! Cheers.

Michael


The universal theme I find that comes up every single time without fail when these debates occur is that people quote articles from every skeptic website under the sun but not a single thing directly from the horse's mouth i.e. many of the thousands of actual climate scientists working for universities, research institutes, government and non-government agencies. The big problem with that is, if you dig deeper, most skeptic websites take info from the latter groups and publish it without the all important context. And without that context, it's easy for people who don't know any better to take it for gospel because many word everything in convincing ways. You would not believe just how many skeptic articles I've come across which do this.
If I wanted advice on what the best treatment is for some disease I have, would I look up online articles from anti-vaxxers and "anti big pharma" bloggers... or would I go to someone who actually has good real life experience and knowledge in this field i.e. a doctor?


To name just a couple of the many examples to instantly stand out from the links you posted (if I were to go through all of them, it would be an enormous post and I'm sure many others here would be bored with it), refer to the "Key climate data highlights" near the start of the www.cfact.org article.
"Strong F3 or larger tornadoes have been in decline since the 1970s." - There has never ever been any consensus in climate science about whether tornadoes will increase or decrease in frequency or intensity due to their sensitivity to mesoscale storm-scale influences. People often confuse the argument that climate change increases the risk of extreme weather with climate change increasing all types of extreme weather. No. There is good consensus of things like erratic individual extreme rain/flood events increasing (while the steadier lighter more reliable seasonal rainfall decreases in some regions), increasing heatwaves, more intense (but possibly fewer) tropical cyclones, etc but thunderstorms and tornadoes have always been surrounded by high uncertainty and lack of consensus...so far anyway.

Despite claims of snow being Ďa thing of the past,í cold season snowfall has been rising. - No climate science has ever said snow is a thing of the past. It's said that snow and ice cover will continue to decrease in the majority of regions (but a lot slower than others in some regions such as mainland Antarctica, etc). This is especially the case in areas where marginal conditions exist for snowfall. At the same time, there is some evidence to suggest that increased moisture loading in the atmosphere may also lead to some individual snowstorms becoming heavier in areas which are still going to stay more than cold enough for snowfalls.

"Sea level rise rates have been steady for over a century, with recent deceleration." - That's about as correct as the earth being flat. Not sure what drugs they're on but that's simply and utterly wrong. Fake news. https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/ (all measurement techniques show this obvious trend ranging from coastal gauges and buoys to satellite data).

I could go on and on about this and address every aspect of every link you posted but it would fill up several pages of this forum and I'm sure no-one would want that.

All of examples I mentioned are completely fundamental flaws. Climate Science 101. If articles like these repeatedly get even the most basic of basic facts wrong that underly climate science, what hope do they have of getting the more complex aspects about climate science right?

This whole debate has uncanny parallels to what happened during the early stages of the tobacco debate when big tobacco companies and lobby groups were trying to convince the average Joe on the street that the science behind the link between smoking and lung cancer was wrong. And we all know how that turned out. The only difference was, there was no social media or lots of websites that could make it easy for armchair critics to spread misinformation so quickly and easily as today.

People think this whole debate is something that everyone's opinion is equal and that it's some obscure thing that we can argue for or against like some debate about whether aliens exist. Back in the 80's when the science was far from settled, yes it was (I still even have a Time Life book published back then which actually mentions the concept of global warming!). But not now. Now it's like trying to argue with anti vaxxers that medical science has long established that vaccinations prevent diseases which used to plague populations many decades ago, that the earth is round not flat, or that "chemtrails" are caused by trails of ice crystals from aircraft not a poison.

Humans have had widespread impacts on many aspects of the natural world. These include everything from human activity causing extinction rates of plant and animal species up to 1000 times the natural background rate, widescale logging/deforestation of rainforests whose effects can be easily seen from space, widespread erosion in vulnerable areas due to deforestation, major increases in pollutant particles being detected thousands of km away in otherwise pristine areas such as Greenland from source countries thousands of km away, widespread changes in the ecosystem due to introduction of invasive plants and animals, the big increase in chlorofluorocarbons in the atmosphere before a worldwide ban was placed on the manufactore of devices containing CFC's... the list is endless.
Here's some images: http://earthsky.org/earth/view-from-space-amazon-deforestation-1975-vs-2012
http://www.exposingtruth.com/20-images-that-show-the-human-impact-on-the-planet/

Just because the world *seems* big and we *seem* insignificant, it doesn't mean we can't affect it in big ways. The difference between the pre-industrial era and now is that there's now 7 billion humans on this planet, many of who live in highly industrialised areas which pump out huge amounts of pollution every day, both into the water and air (you only need to go to somewhere like Beijing to see how smog can blot out the sun for days even in areas away from the city). Our planet might feel big and looking up at the blue skies, they might seem like they go up forever... but in reality, our oceans and atmosphere are virtually like the skin on an onion (which is what a lot of astronauts also say when they first go up into orbit). You can see just how thin the atmosphere is in this shot. One would have to be delusional to believe that 7 billion people pouring out all sorts of things into such a thin layer day in day out, decade after decade wouldn't have a measurable effect:




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#1467046 - 07/07/2018 14:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] [Re: Warwick Eye2Sky]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 388
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Very interesting read Ken, very well said.
Has anyone ever considered how 7 billion people @ 37 degrees each (average) effects the system? Mmm
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Just here for the weather

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