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#1448728 - 14/01/2018 11:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
paulcirrus Offline
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Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1535
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
southerly just reached gold coast seaway......i think. On present timming that would make it get to brisbane around 12:30 ish today and 2:30 ish caloundra.
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#1448729 - 14/01/2018 11:55 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
paulcirrus Offline
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Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1535
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Correction i think it maybe more like 2:30ish for brisbane.
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#1448730 - 14/01/2018 12:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
whethertraveller Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2011
Posts: 103
Loc: Northern Gold Coast
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Correction i think it maybe more like 2:30ish for brisbane.


I'm north of the GC Paul so I got a bit excited hoping the southerly would be here around 11.30. The sooner the better methinks. Currently 35C here

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#1448733 - 14/01/2018 12:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3117
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Looking at todays recent balloon launch from Brissy and recent GFS forecast data shows a temperature inversion from 600-500hpa. Apart from some forcing from the surging change not much in the way of instability.

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#1448739 - 14/01/2018 12:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
sharjay Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/05/2011
Posts: 989
Loc: Mooloolaba Sunshine Coast QLD
2 very small and quick cells just passed thru...one at caloundra and one at maroochydore... nothing to brag about...hot sunny again...will these small storms inhibit anything for later when southerly comes thru

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#1448740 - 14/01/2018 13:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1072
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
27 this morning when I left Ballina At 9am nsw. Southerly had been in a while but was still barely a whimper. Home now 37 here and terrible , hope that breeze catches up.

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#1448741 - 14/01/2018 13:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1474
Loc: Australia
The latest Vis satellite is showing a hint of a roll cloud just south of yamba

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#1448743 - 14/01/2018 13:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Steve O]
gleno71 Offline
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Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1474
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Steve O
Looking at todays recent balloon launch from Brissy and recent GFS forecast data shows a temperature inversion from 600-500hpa. Apart from some forcing from the surging change not much in the way of instability.


The capping seems to be a lot higher in height than normal looking at the latest sounding

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#1448744 - 14/01/2018 13:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
sharjay Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/05/2011
Posts: 989
Loc: Mooloolaba Sunshine Coast QLD
and a second small quick storm just hit and after 10 minutes hot and sunny again.. at the beach so took cover under SLSC until it passed...some nice CGs hit the ocean

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#1448745 - 14/01/2018 13:48 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: TWEEDSTORM]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5108
Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
They certainly were a surprise alright given how mediocre the radar looked all day with that band of nothingness moving up here all day.Was it the cap breaking down in the end? Was causes the cap to break down seabreze dropping off or something else?Looks another boring week or more after yesterdays brief excitement.Why doesnt one of these highs plant itself somewhere else for a change like the Top End of Australia be good

I think it's important to remember that capping isn't the be-all and end-all when it comes to inland thunderstorms being advected into capped coastal areas.
If steering winds are good and/or storms are strong, cells can sometimes erode the cap as their outflow boundary surges into it or high-based storms can even appear to "ride over" the top of the capping and reach the coast.
Of course strong capping can eventually kill storms if they travel too far into capped areas but capping won't always stop storms as soon as they hit a capped area.

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#1448746 - 14/01/2018 13:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: whethertraveller]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5108
Originally Posted By: whethertraveller
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Correction i think it maybe more like 2:30ish for brisbane.


I'm north of the GC Paul so I got a bit excited hoping the southerly would be here around 11.30. The sooner the better methinks. Currently 35C here


Worth remembering that the change today consists of two parts - one is the weak initial leading edge which only slowly tries to make its way up the coastline during the day today, while the other part is the surge of much stronger cooler SSE'lies that pushes up the coast late this afternoon/evening and catches up with the initial leading edge.

Will get very windy along exposed parts of the coast and islands when this happens.

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#1448748 - 14/01/2018 14:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3117
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Originally Posted By: Steve O
Looking at todays recent balloon launch from Brissy and recent GFS forecast data shows a temperature inversion from 600-500hpa. Apart from some forcing from the surging change not much in the way of instability.


The capping seems to be a lot higher in height than normal looking at the latest sounding


Yea it almost looks like an enlarged version of what youd normally see at the 0-3km height haha. Yea way to dry that profile. Its all north or offshore if there is some moisture but doesn't look to good anyway..


Edited by Steve O (14/01/2018 14:16)

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#1448750 - 14/01/2018 14:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1535
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Check out double isl point, 35C with a dew point of 31C - Classic
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#1448751 - 14/01/2018 14:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
paulcirrus Offline
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Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1535
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
With an apparent temp of 44C
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#1448754 - 14/01/2018 14:46 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
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Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1474
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: whethertraveller
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Correction i think it maybe more like 2:30ish for brisbane.


I'm north of the GC Paul so I got a bit excited hoping the southerly would be here around 11.30. The sooner the better methinks. Currently 35C here


Worth remembering that the change today consists of two parts - one is the weak initial leading edge which only slowly tries to make its way up the coastline during the day today, while the other part is the surge of much stronger cooler SSE'lies that pushes up the coast late this afternoon/evening and catches up with the initial leading edge.

Will get very windy along exposed parts of the coast and islands when this happens.


Ken why does this happen? Even when I lived in Sydney, the change would sometimes come in two parts as well.

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#1448755 - 14/01/2018 14:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 568
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
SEster arrived here not a few minutes ago - Nth GC & 6-7k in from coast - whoo, took 4 deg straight of the temps 33/4 to 29 cool


Edited by PlumbBob (14/01/2018 14:53)
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#1448756 - 14/01/2018 15:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1474
Loc: Australia
I would do anything to be on Lord Howe Island at the moment, Those line of storms is out of this world

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#1448759 - 14/01/2018 16:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
whethertraveller Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2011
Posts: 103
Loc: Northern Gold Coast
Thankyou Ken for the clarification of the SSE change and windy conditions to come later. 41C in the sun and 37C under the deck, some gusty winds coming through, lets hope the next hour or so brings a drop in temp

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#1448760 - 14/01/2018 16:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: whethertraveller]
Lewis Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2011
Posts: 329
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
It's really interesting to compare yesterday and today's weather and look at how hot the temperature has been, and how hot it has felt.

On Saturday (yesterday), Archerfield hit a max at 12pm of 36.2 degrees with a 'Feels like' at 36.5 degrees, with humidity hovering around 50% for most of the afternoon. Today (Sunday), Archerfield has hit a higher maximum at 1pm of 37.1 degrees, but the 'Feels like' temperature is down to 32.4 degrees, with humidity around 25-30% since the wind picked up around 10am. If you're out of the breeze though, the 'feels like' temperature really picks up.

The heat today is very Melbourne-like - very hot, but strong, gusty winds. I much prefer it to the high humidity, although it does make outside feel a bit like a blast furnace. I think this is also why we're going to totally miss out on storms today - it is simply too dry. Further north, where there's still some moisture in the air (e.g. Tewantin at 44% humidity) still has a chance.


Edited by Lewis (14/01/2018 16:22)
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#1448761 - 14/01/2018 16:21 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gberg Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2015
Posts: 67
Loc: noosaville
had a couple little cells come through here at 1pm.. Since then i have been watching clouds grow ridiculously fast, drop some rain then collapse just as quick.. Seems too dry even here with winds swinging westerly at times beforw swinging back to a light northerly.


Edited by gberg (14/01/2018 16:22)

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