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#1448484 - 12/01/2018 17:43 SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5214
Here's some of my thoughts at time of writing this for Fri/Sat/Sun (Sunday in particular could change from what I've written here).

Friday - Some showers & thunderstorms extending over inland southern parts of the region (mainly the ranges near, and south of the border and possibly the ranges to the west) this afternoon/early evening.

Friday overnight - It's tempting to say there could be some showers or thunder overnight due to some instability aloft but most models don't currently have much precip happening.

Saturday - High cloud possibly drifting across large parts of the region by morning (if it's very thin cirrus and/or with breaks, it shouldn't have a huge effect but if it's a bit thicker, it could be a bit of an issue in delaying activity).
Drier west to southwesterlies approach the coast but don't quite reach most of it (EC's current scenario) with a convergence zone a bit inland of the coast as it meets the NNE'lies.
EC currently just has hit & miss isolated activity at best while ACCESS-C has somewhat more extensive activity but not developing until very late in the day/evening...possibly due to the morning cloud & the dry lower levels (have noticed the previous version of ACCESS-C overcook convective precip in these dry'ish setups but not sure if the current version will).
Although there's strong coastal capping, steering winds look to pick up a bit by very late afternoon/evening. Given the dry lower levels, gusty winds look like being the main phenomenon under any storms that do manage to develop.
EC also has a subtle midlevel shortwave trough pivoting up over our region later in the day which could help a little bit although more moisture would be better.
Although it looks like being much hotter than normal away from the coast, this also depends on the extent & thickness of the high cloud cover (and as always, Brisbane city itself is hard to forecast max temps for since it's so dependent on seabreeze timing).

Saturday overnight - Once again, a case of instability aloft but not many models have much precip.

Sunday - Pretty complicated. Profiles look somewhat better on this day with better moisture, stronger shear (helped by the post-change SE'lies as well) and steering winds, and the SE change (EC currently has it reaching NE NSW in the early morning, the QLD/NSW border in the middle of the day, and Sunshine Coast in the very late afternoon or early evening).
One of the main complications come EC's current scenario of the drier W to SW'lies breaking through to the coast in southern parts of our region in the morning and most of the region by early afternoon. but it still tries to develop showers or storms along the northern NSW coast along the convergence zone between the coastal SSE'lies behind the change and the WSW'lies further inland... with the bulk of the better instability/moisture contracting into northern parts such as the Sunshine Coast and northwards (but I'd prefer a NNE flow up there rather than the NW'ly flow currently being forecast).
There's a bit of a triple point between where the post-change SE'lies, the WSW'lies and the NNE'lies meet except in this case, the WSW'lies could break through to parts of the coast rather than staying inland.
Despite these complications, it still looks to me like there'll probably be storms at least somewhere in our region, some possibly severe... just a question of exactly where.

So in a nutshell from where I stand, today looks like the ranges near & south of the border, Saturday looks like featuring high cloud drifting across by morning with hit & miss activity quite late in the day (unless ACCESS-C's scenario comes true in which case activity may be a bit more extensive), and Sunday has the better potential in northern parts such as the Sunshine Coast/Wide Bay (but I don't like the NW'ly flow up there that much) with a chance further south near the coast (if the dryline can stay just inland of the coast enough, it could cause photogenic nukes to erupt along it near the coast but that's a big "if").
Not a huge amount of rainfall likely for most places on either day.

Will try to post thunderstorm maps on the mornings of both days. In the meantime, here's the latest extreme forecast index from the EC ensemble for the period 10am Sat to 10am Sun for max temps where +1 is very hot compared to the area and time of year - can see the belt of heat ahead of that change:



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#1448494 - 12/01/2018 18:13 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 453
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Awesome Ken.
Even if not much rain suggested in EC it will still be something to appreciate compared to recent weeks doldrums.
If some rain as ACCESS suggests all the better.
Nice to have any change this weekend

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#1448496 - 12/01/2018 18:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Aussiestormguy Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 42
Loc: Allora
Always love your work Ken. Seeing some decent lightning active stuff coming from the south of me ATM. Been so long since I got a decent photo. Looks like an interesting few days.

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#1448497 - 12/01/2018 18:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5214
No problem, I probably wouldn't get your hopes up too high for this weekend yet... could be a number of places that miss out on action entirely while some areas get lucky.

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#1448499 - 12/01/2018 18:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 745
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Heres hopin , Great work Ken guess it will be a case of doin it the old fashion way and keepin an eye to the sky.

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#1448501 - 12/01/2018 19:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3358
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Love your work Ken, aircons gona crank this weekend, still damn hot here 31C & 61% RH, very uncomfortable outside, inside NICE!

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#1448541 - 13/01/2018 02:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 569
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
Not gettin any hopes up this weekend, ?
Been typical boring mid-summer weather 'ere since xmas, even then went around GC hole - how desperate does one need to be to have to drive 50ks to get a rain spot - Damn, should just wash the car with the hose, but that means 'work' - cant win blush
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#1448544 - 13/01/2018 08:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5214
Unless it's widespread thunderstorms in a setup with deep moisture, extensive slow moving storms or a slow-moving squall line, I would never ever rely on storms as a source of worthwhile rainfall.
If you want more reliable exciting weather and explosive storms, I'd recommend areas such as Europe, the US, eastern Asia or southeastern South America lol

A few places in our region still look like they're in with a chance of a hit & miss shower or gusty storm this afternoon/evening while many places probably won't get anything.

Here's the latest thunderstorm map for today (til midnight) generated by GFS data:



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#1448553 - 13/01/2018 10:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
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Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1509
Loc: Australia
Thanks for the maps and info Ken. I'm curious as to why the northern inland NSW area are doing well for storms the last few days? Hows the atmosphere different in that region to produce storms when its only a few hundred km's from the SE QLD region?
Many thanks.

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#1448559 - 13/01/2018 11:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Stormwithin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/12/2016
Posts: 150
HI for the Lockyer Valley/Amberley amd areas surrounding looks concerning for today!

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#1448560 - 13/01/2018 11:21 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
paulcirrus Offline
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Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1541
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Looks like zero chance of any storm for Brisbane today and tomorrow. Looks like ipswich will be the same. Bom just downgraded the forecasts even more and I tend to agree with them. So continuing hot and dry without any releif all the way til next thursday. But today....... ZERO Chances
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#1448561 - 13/01/2018 11:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
paulcirrus Offline
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Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1541
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
I was thinking of driving west toward stanthorpe just to see a storm, but seems unlikely there as well.
As always hoping i am wrong.
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#1448565 - 13/01/2018 12:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
tsunami Offline
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Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1151
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Disagree paul
Feels like a storm day.clouds way out west
Will see storms either today or tommorrow
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#1448569 - 13/01/2018 12:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: tsunami]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2096
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Agree with BOM. Might see a little patchy activity later tonight and offshore activity tomorrow but no show for today and tomorrow for Brisbane. The set-up just isn't right for us.

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#1448570 - 13/01/2018 12:21 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3358
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
37C with 32%RH atm. Bit of high cloud to the SW.

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#1448574 - 13/01/2018 12:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Steve O Offline
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Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3148
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea heavily capped on the coast... but if it breaks there will be something but weak shear im doubtful but there might be atleast somthing. Steerings winds are WSW'ly.


Edited by Steve O (13/01/2018 12:43)

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#1448584 - 13/01/2018 14:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Kazz63 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 1463
Loc: Kingaroy
Geez guys, such a sad bunch.
I can see potential there for us to get something in Kinga today; that one spot of lightning near Dirrinbandi just now on the end of that cloud bank, the movement NE of that lot... well I am staying positive that we may get a tinkle this evening.
That mass will at least inject some moisture into the atmosphere & bodes well for tomorrow as well.
And watching the gliders over head , I see there's a little extra movement in the air today as well.

We shall see I guess. Enjoy your air con!
grin
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#1448588 - 13/01/2018 14:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
thecatandme Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 04/03/2017
Posts: 15
Loc: Brisbane Valley, QLD
40.8 here at the moment. Netflix and aircon kind of day!

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#1448590 - 13/01/2018 14:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5214
I still love your username thecatandme haha

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#1448592 - 13/01/2018 14:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3358
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Was 39.2C before back out to slash & loose some beer ballast. 41.8C atm with a real nasty hot NW wind. Bit of cloud but not much of any structure to the SW atm.
Aircon, movies & beer time rest of the afternoon.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (13/01/2018 14:53)

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#1448593 - 13/01/2018 15:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 919
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
38.0 here
Weather station is in the shade.
Heading back to the beach!!!
Lots of wind offshore

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#1448594 - 13/01/2018 15:02 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1142
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Our temperature is playing round 43 at the moment. Hot! Nice band of something going on other side of Roma, hope it keeps coming in.
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Jimbour rain: 2018-153, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5

2017-559, Jan-103.5, Feb-67.5, Mar-118.5, April-0, May-7, June-21.5, July 33.5, Aug-2.5, September-1, Oct-112, Nov-21, December-98

2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1448595 - 13/01/2018 15:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1193
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
36.0C here, bit warm but not too bad. A bit of patchy cu bubbling away to the south but thats about it. Unfortunately I'm gonna have to sit on the pessimist side of the fence today, would love to be proven wrong but I can't see us getting much more than a brief shower at best this evening.
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#1448597 - 13/01/2018 15:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Lani]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 745
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Nice band of virga probably thats about all thats goin on. Armageddon out there.Might get lucky tonight with an isolated spit or two.

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#1448599 - 13/01/2018 15:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 418
Loc: Salisbury
According to Weatherzone it's only 33.8 degrees here currently (Archerfield temperature), but I'll agree with their it "feels like" of 38 degrees reading. Currently working outside doing some Carpentry on the house, shirt has been soaked with sweat all day, thankfully though the breeze that has been blowing most of the day gives relief when I walk into the shade. Reckon I might stand under the hose for a while this arvo...lol.

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#1448603 - 13/01/2018 15:36 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
redbucket Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 306
Loc: Regency Downs, Lockyer Valley
42 and fkn hot here in RD. Seriously uncomfortable

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#1448604 - 13/01/2018 15:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3148
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Archerfield AP gets a fairly good seabreeze where its located. 34c still is pretty impressive for there.


Edited by Steve O (13/01/2018 15:50)

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#1448610 - 13/01/2018 16:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3358
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Getting a bit optimistic with that area near Inglewood. Seems like building itself into a line. Still 42C atm

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#1448620 - 13/01/2018 16:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1151
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
If we dont get a storm i am off to buy tomatoe sauce to add flavor for when i eat my hat.
Mmmmmmmmm straw and tomato sauce
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#1448621 - 13/01/2018 16:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1807
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Hi all, About to get some rain at my place ,No storm but the wind has been 40 to 70 kmhs at my place for about 1/2 an hour.And the temp has dropped from 41.6 deg to 34 and falling ,Great getting rid of the heat.Grass is dead here so will take any rain lol.


Edited by ozone doug (13/01/2018 16:52)
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#1448626 - 13/01/2018 17:25 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1509
Loc: Australia
Storm to the east of Gatton atm, maybe something will happen

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#1448627 - 13/01/2018 17:27 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
redbucket Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 306
Loc: Regency Downs, Lockyer Valley
Just skirted south of here. Few CGs and some short sharp rain on the highway at Hattonvale.

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#1448628 - 13/01/2018 17:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3358
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Holy crap, its raining.

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#1448629 - 13/01/2018 17:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5214
Quite a few sparks from those cells - Weatherzone image below:



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#1448630 - 13/01/2018 17:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1509
Loc: Australia
The BOM's thunderstorm tracker is a good thing to observe as well

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#1448631 - 13/01/2018 17:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3358
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Watching movie & all this noise outside rearranging plastc furniture. Wow, storm from nowhere. Cooled down nicely.

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#1448634 - 13/01/2018 18:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3358
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Nice little stormy moving towards Brissie on Stapy, didnt someone say no storms for Brissie? See if it lasts the distance.

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#1448635 - 13/01/2018 18:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
swamp-lady Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2011
Posts: 272
Loc: Toowoomba
Been outside to water my poor singed plants. Very windy with a few spits of rain flying around. Lots of dark cloud though and the temp has definitely dropped.

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#1448636 - 13/01/2018 18:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1151
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Hmmmm may not need matoe sauce after all
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#1448639 - 13/01/2018 18:23 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 597
Loc: Bardon 4065
Nice heavy rain here at the moment, a few rumbles of thunder and a nice breeze, starting to cool things down a bit.
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#1448642 - 13/01/2018 18:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 745
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
High based thunderstorm down here . .nothing to look at but some decent thunder!

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#1448644 - 13/01/2018 18:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1142
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Eagerly awaiting the line and praying some rains in it but got some decent wind blowin up dust storms about 45 mins ago. Has cooled a bit.
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-153, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5

2017-559, Jan-103.5, Feb-67.5, Mar-118.5, April-0, May-7, June-21.5, July 33.5, Aug-2.5, September-1, Oct-112, Nov-21, December-98

2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1448646 - 13/01/2018 19:07 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Lani]
Kazz63 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 1463
Loc: Kingaroy
Originally Posted By: Lani
Eagerly awaiting the line and praying some rains in it but got some decent wind blowin up dust storms about 45 mins ago. Has cooled a bit.
well that wind made it here without the dust and with some wet stuff...... I was just reaching for the hand towels to wipe the sweat that was dripping off my face but the rain washed it for me before I could get my glasses off lol.
Water's running down the road and also into the water tank. Not a heap but my gawd its cool down now.
And finally just heard the first rumble of thunder.

I cant wait for that line either Lani, just don't hog all of it, lol.
And I see our patch of rain has now been documented on the Thunderstorm tracker, sweet. Should grow bigger as it gets to the coast.
Much more Westerly direction than I would like though, we may miss out & Elf gets it all.


Edited by Kazz63 (13/01/2018 19:08)
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#1448647 - 13/01/2018 19:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1193
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
5mm in that surprise heavy shower at my place. Awesome how it went from hot as buggery to pleasantly cool in the space of about 10 minutes. Nice to hear those rumbles as well smile


Edited by LightningGus (13/01/2018 19:11)
Edit Reason: Kazz beat me to it
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2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 715mm
2018 Rainfall: 364mm ytd

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#1448648 - 13/01/2018 19:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
whethertraveller Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2011
Posts: 103
Loc: Northern Gold Coast
A bit of thunder and about 3 minutes of heavy rain here on the Logan River to the west of Mt Stappy. Better than nothing I guess, it's cooled it down just a little. Good to see some parts of Brisbane got a storm and some rain, hoping those out west would get some too.

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#1448649 - 13/01/2018 19:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: LightningGus]
Kazz63 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 1463
Loc: Kingaroy
Originally Posted By: LightningGus
Just had 5mm from a surprise heavy shower here. Was more than I expected today and cooled things down nicely. Even a few rumbles just now as it moves off to the east.

You boys... one day you'll listen to me lol.
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#1448650 - 13/01/2018 19:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Kazz63]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1193
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Originally Posted By: Kazz63
Originally Posted By: LightningGus
Just had 5mm from a surprise heavy shower here. Was more than I expected today and cooled things down nicely. Even a few rumbles just now as it moves off to the east.

You boys... one day you'll listen to me lol.

Yeah yeah just putting the bbq sauce on the straw hat now... grin Looks like those from brissy who said they wont get a storm will be doing the same, decent amount of lighting on the tracker down there.
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2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 715mm
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#1448651 - 13/01/2018 19:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1807
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Looks like i missed out just a few spits here.At least it cooled down .
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Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
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#1448653 - 13/01/2018 19:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1151
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Not much rain a few spits. Thunder and lightning. .but no straw hat and matoe sauce for me...fewwwwww
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Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1448654 - 13/01/2018 19:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3358
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Just got to have a laugh at BOM.
4.15PM forecast for 20% chance of a shower.
5.15pm forecast now 50% chance of shower or storm.
1.5mm from that windy piece of wet storm.

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#1448655 - 13/01/2018 19:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: tsunami]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 418
Loc: Salisbury
Originally Posted By: tsunami
Not much rain a few spits. Thunder and lightning. .but no straw hat and matoe sauce for me...fewwwwww
i was still working away downstairs an hour or so ago (only just finished now actually) and heard thunder, then more thunder and saw a flash of lightning before some small amount of rain hit...thought of you and how it'd have to be takeaway for dinner now instead...lol

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#1448659 - 13/01/2018 19:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4580
Loc: Wynnum
Now that our equipment is back on after an hour......Vicious ground strikes all around us an hour ago. 4.6mm rain, little wind. Heard sirens heading off to refinery/Port area so guessing some strikes set off alarms over there.
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#1448660 - 13/01/2018 19:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: retired weather man]
Kazz63 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 1463
Loc: Kingaroy
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
Now that our equipment is back on after an hour......Vicious ground strikes all around us an hour ago. 4.6mm rain, little wind. Heard sirens heading off to refinery/Port area so guessing some strikes set off alarms over there.
Sounds like you guys got all the lightning then, we only had a rumble of thunder.
But there's more to come yet, although there's been no lightning in that cell either. Can't have everything I guess, lol
Darn frogs driving me nuts though! lol
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#1448661 - 13/01/2018 19:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 360
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Top of 40 here with 1.5mm from a passing small cell, I'm content with that.

Strangely a severe thunderstorm warning was just sent to my phone for the Moreton Bay area, are they predicting something to form west? It looks like everything is practically out to sea here.
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#1448662 - 13/01/2018 20:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5214
We got lightning, thunder and rain here on the southside.
It finally went over the CBD for once too smile

Some good photos floating around too - these are from the South Brisbane Storms fb pageL


Anita Nicole from Fairfield:


Daniel Willoughby on the Sunshine Coast re crepuscular rays:



Nilan Gandhi:



Claire Denton from Moreton Island:

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#1448663 - 13/01/2018 20:17 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1151
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Wow
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#1448664 - 13/01/2018 20:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Wight Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 11/12/2011
Posts: 42
Loc: Montville, QLD
Well that was a nice downpour. Usually storms miss us here but this one went straight over us. A few nice close flangs. One was especially close causing a blackout for a few seconds. It's eased off but still too much lightning around to go out and check the gauge.

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#1448666 - 13/01/2018 20:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 569
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
Still 29 deg 'ere, - seen cells to our Sth & Nth, hence Tweed & Sth Brizz respectively. some faint flashes off-shore now, tho I earlier sat in the lightest of sprinkle for the entire 15mins and each tiny droplet virtually evaporated as soon as it landed !!
Mmm, not even needing a hat. let lone sauce wink
see what tomoz brings, but reckon we will be missed and anything going this way will be off-shore ?
Just hope the high cloud takes away before midnight so to let some cool air in before rise ,,, ?
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#1448668 - 13/01/2018 20:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Kazz63 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 1463
Loc: Kingaroy
Well that earlier storm has the best looking bum I have ever seen!
It's dark here, stars above and to the NE of us is a great big mushroom cloud that's lighting up everything, even here at times.
Bugger the camera is not crash hot on the phone cos it is silently spectacular.
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#1448677 - 13/01/2018 21:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1509
Loc: Australia
Amazing photos there

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#1448682 - 13/01/2018 21:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
LDRcycles Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/03/2017
Posts: 44
Loc: Kin Kin, Qld
Split in half and went around us frown Lots of rumbling, some pretty lightning, and we had crepuscular rays as the line approached, but virtually no rain and the temperature hasn't dropped much either.

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#1448685 - 13/01/2018 22:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10370
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
The cloudband moved in late this morning, and it cleared away from here on sunset. It only produced a little brief spitting rain -


Very humid with almost no wind on the northern MNC for much of this afternoon / early evening, even lengthy periods of calm. Dewpoints getting up to around 24-25C. Kempsey with two DP readings of 25.1C just before and after 4pm, which combined with the air temp of 30.7C and completely calm conditions, gave a "feels-like" temperature of 37C.

Convective cloud further south closer to the southerly change (the gentle change has since moved through) -
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July 2018 Rainfall: 85.0mm (July Avg. 76.0mm) // July 2018 Raindays: 4 (July Avg. 8.1 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 982.4mm (Jan-Jul Avg. 1015.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 77 (Jan-Jul Avg. 85.5 raindays)

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#1448688 - 13/01/2018 23:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 418
Loc: Salisbury
Misses texted me about an hour ago, she's currently at her sisters in Gympie (Southside / The Palms)...her words "we have just had a cracka of a storm come through here"...they've had no power the past hour and are still in the dark currently.

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#1448689 - 13/01/2018 23:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1509
Loc: Australia
Nice photos Seabreeze,well it looks like Access-C was on the money today. The model had activity moving thru over the Brisbane area and the Border ranges in the late afternoon, both which occurred. Will be a warm night tonight, cant see temps falling below 25 on the coast. 38 for Brisbane on sunday, surely the capping will be wiped out with temps like that.

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#1448690 - 13/01/2018 23:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1142
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Nup, high light cloud with nothing in it. Hope it rains again soon. So much for the 'wet' January we'd been praying on. Ah well.
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2016 - 563.5
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#1448691 - 13/01/2018 23:58 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3358
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Great pics everyone, another hottie tomorrow.
Maybe another surprise stormie?

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#1448700 - 14/01/2018 08:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1541
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Lucky i was wrong yesterday re storms, but they were fickle until the airport. Today, weeeeelllll, just too hot me thinks.
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#1448702 - 14/01/2018 08:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5214
Looks like the picture for today has become clearer.

Baking hot (with the seabreeze being kept out by the WSW'lies except in the north) and mainly sunny except for some patchy high cloud drifting across at times early today with temps many degrees above the January average.

I'd rate storm chances for Brisbane in the "not completely impossible but very low risk" category due to the models still bringing the drier WSW'lies right onto the coast (except in the north).

Could be some localised shower activity and the slight risk of thunder for areas near the coastal SE QLD/NE NSW border near & just behind the primary change but the better chances look like being in northern parts like the Sunshine Coast, Wide Bay, etc... but even up there, chances would be better if it was a more NNE type flow than the forecast NW'ly one.

The change itself consists of a weak slow-moving initial leading edge that pushes up the coast today followed by VERY strong south-southeasterly winds that surge up the coast and catch up with the initial leading edge (EC currently has the stronger winds reaching the Gold Coast this afternoon & the rest of the SEQ coast late afternoon/evening). Some of the more exposed south-southeast-facing parts of the coastal fringe could get pretty damn windy.
I wonder if it'll spawn a photogenic roll cloud as it surges up the coast.

Although tomorrow won't be anywhere near as hot, it'd be even cooler if the SSE'lies behind the change weren't coming off such a warmer than normal Tasman Sea (sea surface temps are still a number of degrees warmer than normal).

Here's a thunderstorm map for today generated by GFS data where I've manually marked in my own thoughts:



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#1448703 - 14/01/2018 08:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 745
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
They certainly were a surprise alright given how mediocre the radar looked all day with that band of nothingness moving up here all day.Was it the cap breaking down in the end? Was causes the cap to break down seabreze dropping off or something else?Looks another boring week or more after yesterdays brief excitement.Why doesnt one of these highs plant itself somewhere else for a change like the Top End of Australia be good

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#1448704 - 14/01/2018 08:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 745
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Sorry Ken we both submitted a post same time didnt mean to take any shine off your very important info.

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#1448705 - 14/01/2018 08:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3358
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Thanks for sharing your thoughts & map Ken & T.S.
Amazing warm night, dont think it went below 28C,
31.5C with 50% RH, hoping for another dose of wet.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (14/01/2018 08:57)

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#1448707 - 14/01/2018 09:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Sandstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2003
Posts: 303
Loc: Highvale
3mm at Highvale
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#1448711 - 14/01/2018 09:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5225
Loc: Diamond Valley
Any chance for some triple point action on the Sunshine Coast Ken if the sea breeze can push in against the westerlies?
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#1448713 - 14/01/2018 09:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 569
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
Stuff me Mushrooms, flat-out getting below 27 'ere '6;00am' and only 5k from coast !
Who cares about any shower or storm - Just cant wait for that Sthrly this arv, look at them temps below 30 around 4pm and the cool air in nensw later bringing temps down around or below 25 by 7pm'ish - for here on the GC anyway, cool

Just notice the 'mentioned' cold pool Monday Morn 1:00 am and early hrs showing temps only around 10deg at Armidale, Glen Innes, and as low as 15deg around Toowoomba ??
BTW, noice pics SB, was an awesome sunrise 'ere this morn


Edited by PlumbBob (14/01/2018 09:55)
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#1448715 - 14/01/2018 10:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1541
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
South-east change just hit cooloongatta, but thats one reading at 9am so will await for 2 more readings, but if it is the case we may get the change earlier, here's hoping
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#1448718 - 14/01/2018 10:17 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18410
Loc: Burnett Heads
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
South-east change just hit cooloongatta, but thats one reading at 9am so will await for 2 more readings, but if it is the case we may get the change earlier, here's hoping


Wind maps show the change is laying through that area.
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#1448719 - 14/01/2018 10:25 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1509
Loc: Australia
I will be keeping my eye out for that roll cloud "if it happens" surging up the coast. Can most of the time be visible on the satellite.

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#1448720 - 14/01/2018 10:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: TWEEDSTORM]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1509
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
They certainly were a surprise alright given how mediocre the radar looked all day with that band of nothingness moving up here all day.Was it the cap breaking down in the end? Was causes the cap to break down seabreze dropping off or something else?Looks another boring week or more after yesterdays brief excitement.Why doesnt one of these highs plant itself somewhere else for a change like the Top End of Australia be good



I still can not understand this inversion , if warm air is above cool air, that warm air should rise anyway with the cool air replacing it. So why dosent that warm air parcel rise?

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#1448722 - 14/01/2018 11:13 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 745
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
What we want is cool to cold air above the warm air Gleno the moisture wont condense in the layer of warmer air

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#1448725 - 14/01/2018 11:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 745
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Seabreeze pushes the warm air upwards and the warm air mixes with the cooler air to form the cap but what I dont know how it breaks down whether it is from the seabreeze dropping off

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#1448728 - 14/01/2018 11:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1541
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
southerly just reached gold coast seaway......i think. On present timming that would make it get to brisbane around 12:30 ish today and 2:30 ish caloundra.
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#1448729 - 14/01/2018 11:55 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1541
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Correction i think it maybe more like 2:30ish for brisbane.
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#1448730 - 14/01/2018 12:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: paulcirrus]
whethertraveller Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2011
Posts: 103
Loc: Northern Gold Coast
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Correction i think it maybe more like 2:30ish for brisbane.


I'm north of the GC Paul so I got a bit excited hoping the southerly would be here around 11.30. The sooner the better methinks. Currently 35C here

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#1448733 - 14/01/2018 12:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3148
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Looking at todays recent balloon launch from Brissy and recent GFS forecast data shows a temperature inversion from 600-500hpa. Apart from some forcing from the surging change not much in the way of instability.

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#1448739 - 14/01/2018 12:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
sharjay Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/05/2011
Posts: 989
Loc: Mooloolaba Sunshine Coast QLD
2 very small and quick cells just passed thru...one at caloundra and one at maroochydore... nothing to brag about...hot sunny again...will these small storms inhibit anything for later when southerly comes thru

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#1448740 - 14/01/2018 13:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1094
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
27 this morning when I left Ballina At 9am nsw. Southerly had been in a while but was still barely a whimper. Home now 37 here and terrible , hope that breeze catches up.

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#1448741 - 14/01/2018 13:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1509
Loc: Australia
The latest Vis satellite is showing a hint of a roll cloud just south of yamba

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#1448743 - 14/01/2018 13:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Steve O]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1509
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Steve O
Looking at todays recent balloon launch from Brissy and recent GFS forecast data shows a temperature inversion from 600-500hpa. Apart from some forcing from the surging change not much in the way of instability.


The capping seems to be a lot higher in height than normal looking at the latest sounding

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#1448744 - 14/01/2018 13:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
sharjay Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/05/2011
Posts: 989
Loc: Mooloolaba Sunshine Coast QLD
and a second small quick storm just hit and after 10 minutes hot and sunny again.. at the beach so took cover under SLSC until it passed...some nice CGs hit the ocean

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#1448745 - 14/01/2018 13:48 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: TWEEDSTORM]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5214
Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
They certainly were a surprise alright given how mediocre the radar looked all day with that band of nothingness moving up here all day.Was it the cap breaking down in the end? Was causes the cap to break down seabreze dropping off or something else?Looks another boring week or more after yesterdays brief excitement.Why doesnt one of these highs plant itself somewhere else for a change like the Top End of Australia be good

I think it's important to remember that capping isn't the be-all and end-all when it comes to inland thunderstorms being advected into capped coastal areas.
If steering winds are good and/or storms are strong, cells can sometimes erode the cap as their outflow boundary surges into it or high-based storms can even appear to "ride over" the top of the capping and reach the coast.
Of course strong capping can eventually kill storms if they travel too far into capped areas but capping won't always stop storms as soon as they hit a capped area.

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#1448746 - 14/01/2018 13:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: whethertraveller]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5214
Originally Posted By: whethertraveller
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Correction i think it maybe more like 2:30ish for brisbane.


I'm north of the GC Paul so I got a bit excited hoping the southerly would be here around 11.30. The sooner the better methinks. Currently 35C here


Worth remembering that the change today consists of two parts - one is the weak initial leading edge which only slowly tries to make its way up the coastline during the day today, while the other part is the surge of much stronger cooler SSE'lies that pushes up the coast late this afternoon/evening and catches up with the initial leading edge.

Will get very windy along exposed parts of the coast and islands when this happens.

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#1448748 - 14/01/2018 14:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3148
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Originally Posted By: Steve O
Looking at todays recent balloon launch from Brissy and recent GFS forecast data shows a temperature inversion from 600-500hpa. Apart from some forcing from the surging change not much in the way of instability.


The capping seems to be a lot higher in height than normal looking at the latest sounding


Yea it almost looks like an enlarged version of what youd normally see at the 0-3km height haha. Yea way to dry that profile. Its all north or offshore if there is some moisture but doesn't look to good anyway..


Edited by Steve O (14/01/2018 14:16)

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#1448750 - 14/01/2018 14:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1541
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Check out double isl point, 35C with a dew point of 31C - Classic
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#1448751 - 14/01/2018 14:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1541
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
With an apparent temp of 44C
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#1448754 - 14/01/2018 14:46 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1509
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: whethertraveller
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Correction i think it maybe more like 2:30ish for brisbane.


I'm north of the GC Paul so I got a bit excited hoping the southerly would be here around 11.30. The sooner the better methinks. Currently 35C here


Worth remembering that the change today consists of two parts - one is the weak initial leading edge which only slowly tries to make its way up the coastline during the day today, while the other part is the surge of much stronger cooler SSE'lies that pushes up the coast late this afternoon/evening and catches up with the initial leading edge.

Will get very windy along exposed parts of the coast and islands when this happens.


Ken why does this happen? Even when I lived in Sydney, the change would sometimes come in two parts as well.

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#1448755 - 14/01/2018 14:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 569
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
SEster arrived here not a few minutes ago - Nth GC & 6-7k in from coast - whoo, took 4 deg straight of the temps 33/4 to 29 cool


Edited by PlumbBob (14/01/2018 14:53)
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#1448756 - 14/01/2018 15:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1509
Loc: Australia
I would do anything to be on Lord Howe Island at the moment, Those line of storms is out of this world

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#1448759 - 14/01/2018 16:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
whethertraveller Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2011
Posts: 103
Loc: Northern Gold Coast
Thankyou Ken for the clarification of the SSE change and windy conditions to come later. 41C in the sun and 37C under the deck, some gusty winds coming through, lets hope the next hour or so brings a drop in temp

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#1448760 - 14/01/2018 16:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: whethertraveller]
Lewis Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2011
Posts: 330
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
It's really interesting to compare yesterday and today's weather and look at how hot the temperature has been, and how hot it has felt.

On Saturday (yesterday), Archerfield hit a max at 12pm of 36.2 degrees with a 'Feels like' at 36.5 degrees, with humidity hovering around 50% for most of the afternoon. Today (Sunday), Archerfield has hit a higher maximum at 1pm of 37.1 degrees, but the 'Feels like' temperature is down to 32.4 degrees, with humidity around 25-30% since the wind picked up around 10am. If you're out of the breeze though, the 'feels like' temperature really picks up.

The heat today is very Melbourne-like - very hot, but strong, gusty winds. I much prefer it to the high humidity, although it does make outside feel a bit like a blast furnace. I think this is also why we're going to totally miss out on storms today - it is simply too dry. Further north, where there's still some moisture in the air (e.g. Tewantin at 44% humidity) still has a chance.


Edited by Lewis (14/01/2018 16:22)
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#1448761 - 14/01/2018 16:21 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gberg Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2015
Posts: 70
Loc: noosaville
had a couple little cells come through here at 1pm.. Since then i have been watching clouds grow ridiculously fast, drop some rain then collapse just as quick.. Seems too dry even here with winds swinging westerly at times beforw swinging back to a light northerly.


Edited by gberg (14/01/2018 16:22)

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#1448762 - 14/01/2018 16:21 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1151
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Southerly just hit here in cleveland temp droped 4c and still droping. Ya
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#1448766 - 14/01/2018 16:27 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1541
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
yes i can see it now on the dopler. Should slam through brisbane in about 20 to 30 mins
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#1448767 - 14/01/2018 16:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1151
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Gone from 37 to 30 and dropping fewwwww
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#1448774 - 14/01/2018 17:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1509
Loc: Australia
Blowing a gale on the Gold Coast now.

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#1448775 - 14/01/2018 17:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 418
Loc: Salisbury
I'm guessing it's just hit Salisbury now, as the wind that is blowing has just gone from a hot breeze to being much cooler.

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#1448776 - 14/01/2018 17:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1151
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
27 now. Thats a 10c drop
Loving it
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#1448778 - 14/01/2018 17:30 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Whisper Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 194
Loc: Gympie
Still 36.4 in Gympie and blue skies

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#1448781 - 14/01/2018 17:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Whisper Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 194
Loc: Gympie
I don't understand what is going on with the temperatures. Just before 3pm it was 36.7C. Since then it has gone 36.5, 36.4, 36.6, 36.4 and now its is 36.5.

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#1448782 - 14/01/2018 17:52 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Whisper]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 569
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
Originally Posted By: Whisper
I don't understand what is going on with the temperatures. Just before 3pm it was 36.7C. Since then it has gone 36.5, 36.4, 36.6, 36.4 and now its is 36.5.

Hi Whisper: your talking discrepancies of 'tenths' of a degree, your always going to have fluctuations, especially at 'tenths' , the air temp is not constant to that extent, never was, never will be - Ive seen temps move 3 and 5 deg and back again a few times in one afternoon, , say it was 25, mostly, then rises to 28 for a few minutes, then back again etc then that means a warm air pocket has come your way, , , and visa-versa, except a cool air pocket !
Roughly something like that, and I say I'm near 100% correct ,, By (Laymans terms)
Hope this helps,

On another note : 25 deg and loving it, sooner than expected also, and hope to enjoy it for another day or two !!


Edited by PlumbBob (14/01/2018 17:55)
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#1448784 - 14/01/2018 18:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1151
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
25 now. Thats a 12c drop
Loving it
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#1448786 - 14/01/2018 18:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Whisper Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 194
Loc: Gympie
Thanks Plumbob.

It has finally dropped to 35.6. Thank goodness tomorrow the forecast is for cooler weather.

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#1448792 - 14/01/2018 18:59 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1094
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Forecast was bang on , May have jagged another one ken. Gusts here are lively , must be up near 60k/hr. Certainly not a moist southerly though.

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#1448794 - 14/01/2018 19:15 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1151
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Our cats a freaking out due to wind. They went through cyclone yasi and are not fond of high winds since
On real windy days they hide so i will put this down as a high wind day
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#1448797 - 14/01/2018 19:55 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3358
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Lovely near calm evening now, damn wind kept knocking plants over.
30.1C after max of 36C

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#1448804 - 14/01/2018 21:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 745
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Yes Elf we should all get a good night sleep at last! Thanks for that information regarding capping Ken.I think that's what happened down this way yesterday arvo, the storm here seemed very high based so presumeably it was actually, as you say, above the cap although it wasnt an overly strong storm.Thats my thoughts anyway

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#1448806 - 14/01/2018 21:40 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3358
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Wonderful 22C, hooray!

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#1448812 - 14/01/2018 23:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10370
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
The evening / late night storms yesterday on the MNC got almost as far north as Port Macquarie. A few showers did form northward of there but none of them produced any lightning/thunder.

After last night's gentle southerly change, the southerly surge moved through here late this morning.
The southerly surge brought strong and gusty winds. It also caused the humidity to noticeably fall. Rarely get mild days with low humidity in summer, so definitely enjoyed the conditions today.

4:10pm yesterday at Kempsey
30.7C / Dewpoint 25.1C, 72%RH
then...
4:10pm today at Kempsey
25.3C / Dewpoint 8.3C, 34%RH


Originally Posted By: gleno71
I would do anything to be on Lord Howe Island at the moment, Those line of storms is out of this world
I have previously wondered if Lord Howe Island has ever recorded large hail? Many storms there seem to hit as a squall-line formation along passing troughs/fronts which would usually favour strong to damaging winds and bursts of heavy rain instead. I imagine small hail would occur occasionally, more-so in the wintry months. I would think April/May would be the best chance there for large hail, with sea surface temperatures still being high, better chance of decent cold pools, along with troughs/fronts coming through on a more regular basis. Maybe Ken or Blair might know of any large hail occurrences there.
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#1448813 - 14/01/2018 23:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5214
Good question, I'm not sure. At a guess, I would've thought large hail is reasonably uncommon on Lord Howe (compared to mainland eastern and southeastern Australia) being so maritime there.

One of the things I do love about the island though is that it's in a prime position for the cold speckled cumulus cloud polar
maritime airmasses coming up behind vigorous cold fronts in the winter months and often gets a good dose of showery weather and a bit of thunder from those.

1st image - delta-T map for max temps comparing today with tomorrow

2nd image - nice daytime lightning capture by Diana Burgess on the Sunshine Coast and shared to the South Brisbane Storms fb page

3rd image - I love how razor sharp and clearly defined the cold front is that swept up through our region today in this EC wind field map for 10pm tonight as well as how the long front arcs across the Tasman:







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#1448818 - 15/01/2018 08:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3123
Loc: Buderim
Was impressed by how defined the change was coming through the SS coast late yesterday with a band of low level cloud, and sudden winds sending the children chasing the leaves down the street.

This morning seemed almost a little chilly when I went for my morning run. Or at least the closest thing to chilly likely to be experienced this time of year. Dry and breezy definitely helped.

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#1448824 - 15/01/2018 08:52 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4580
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth Sun max 36.9C, Mon min 14.9C. 24 hour temp anomaly only +0.5C. Grass min 13.6C.
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Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul17.6(56.1),YTD661.8(757.2)

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#1448826 - 15/01/2018 09:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gberg Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2015
Posts: 70
Loc: noosaville
IMG_5449 by George Berg, on Flickr

This is one of the cells that came through Noosa yesterday, it was very localized though with there being very little rain at home and a couple of K's down the road i drove through some very heavy rain.

Thanks to Greg aka Foehn Correspondent for showing me how to upload phots's, ended up being rather simple in the end.

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#1448838 - 15/01/2018 11:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Befour Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2015
Posts: 207
Loc: Kingsford (Sydney)
Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
Rarely get mild days with low humidity in summer, so definitely enjoyed the conditions today.


I do really miss that! Much less consistently humid in Sydney, I am probably one of the few people who prefers humidity to the dry heat.

That is a pretty big difference from day to day in Kempsey!

Horrible conditions in Sydney at the moment, cool and very windy, yesterday in particular the wind was disgusting.

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#1448840 - 15/01/2018 11:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4954
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
That's a great photo gberg
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#1448851 - 15/01/2018 12:55 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3796
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Some pretty low minima in SE Queensland this morning (especially impressive after the high maxima yesterday). Gatton had its lowest January minimum on record, Amberley its lowest since 2010, and Brisbane missed the record for the current site (opened 1999) by 0.4.

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#1448853 - 15/01/2018 12:57 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: EddyG]
gberg Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2015
Posts: 70
Loc: noosaville
Originally Posted By: EddyG
That's a great photo gberg


Thanks Eddy!

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#1448861 - 15/01/2018 14:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5214
Agreed, great shot gberg

Here's some of the colder min temps from around SE QLD overnight/this morning that Blair mentioned:


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#1448867 - 15/01/2018 15:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 597
Loc: Bardon 4065
Nice photo Gberg, glad the instructions made sense.

Greg
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#1448906 - 15/01/2018 20:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Kazz63 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 1463
Loc: Kingaroy
Beautiful pic Gberg, even if it reminds me of blue vein cheese, lol.
It would make a fantastic jigsaw puzzle!
grin
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#1448923 - 16/01/2018 01:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
AnnerleyX1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2013
Posts: 56
Sunday was such a Melbourne day here - high 30's, low humidity and gusty winds, followed by a massive southerly that dropped the temperature from 37 to 23 in just under 2 hours, then an unseasonably cold morning less than 20 hours after one of the hottest days of the season. What the heck is this Brisbane?

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#1448960 - 16/01/2018 10:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Befour Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2015
Posts: 207
Loc: Kingsford (Sydney)
Brisbourne?

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#1448961 - 16/01/2018 10:15 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5214
Hahaha love that name.

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#1449082 - 17/01/2018 11:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Befour]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1509
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Befour
Brisbourne?



Lol love it

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#1449083 - 17/01/2018 11:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1509
Loc: Australia
Fantastic Photo Gberg well done

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#1452262 - 11/02/2018 23:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
LDRcycles Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/03/2017
Posts: 44
Loc: Kin Kin, Qld
Monster storm here, had a beautiful shelf cloud in front of it and then a total whiteout with very strong wind. Luckily no damage to our house but the shed roof was threatening to come off, and our steel gate got blown off it's hinges. Trees down everywhere, had to cut my way out of my road to start working on a huge one down on a main road until the fireys arrived to finish the job. 3+hrs I was going flat out, completely stuffed now.

[img]https://scontent-syd2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t...2a3&oe=5B227DD3[/img]

[img]https://scontent-syd2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t...316&oe=5B1B355E[/img]

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