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#1448484 - 12/01/2018 17:43 SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4882
Here's some of my thoughts at time of writing this for Fri/Sat/Sun (Sunday in particular could change from what I've written here).

Friday - Some showers & thunderstorms extending over inland southern parts of the region (mainly the ranges near, and south of the border and possibly the ranges to the west) this afternoon/early evening.

Friday overnight - It's tempting to say there could be some showers or thunder overnight due to some instability aloft but most models don't currently have much precip happening.

Saturday - High cloud possibly drifting across large parts of the region by morning (if it's very thin cirrus and/or with breaks, it shouldn't have a huge effect but if it's a bit thicker, it could be a bit of an issue in delaying activity).
Drier west to southwesterlies approach the coast but don't quite reach most of it (EC's current scenario) with a convergence zone a bit inland of the coast as it meets the NNE'lies.
EC currently just has hit & miss isolated activity at best while ACCESS-C has somewhat more extensive activity but not developing until very late in the day/evening...possibly due to the morning cloud & the dry lower levels (have noticed the previous version of ACCESS-C overcook convective precip in these dry'ish setups but not sure if the current version will).
Although there's strong coastal capping, steering winds look to pick up a bit by very late afternoon/evening. Given the dry lower levels, gusty winds look like being the main phenomenon under any storms that do manage to develop.
EC also has a subtle midlevel shortwave trough pivoting up over our region later in the day which could help a little bit although more moisture would be better.
Although it looks like being much hotter than normal away from the coast, this also depends on the extent & thickness of the high cloud cover (and as always, Brisbane city itself is hard to forecast max temps for since it's so dependent on seabreeze timing).

Saturday overnight - Once again, a case of instability aloft but not many models have much precip.

Sunday - Pretty complicated. Profiles look somewhat better on this day with better moisture, stronger shear (helped by the post-change SE'lies as well) and steering winds, and the SE change (EC currently has it reaching NE NSW in the early morning, the QLD/NSW border in the middle of the day, and Sunshine Coast in the very late afternoon or early evening).
One of the main complications come EC's current scenario of the drier W to SW'lies breaking through to the coast in southern parts of our region in the morning and most of the region by early afternoon. but it still tries to develop showers or storms along the northern NSW coast along the convergence zone between the coastal SSE'lies behind the change and the WSW'lies further inland... with the bulk of the better instability/moisture contracting into northern parts such as the Sunshine Coast and northwards (but I'd prefer a NNE flow up there rather than the NW'ly flow currently being forecast).
There's a bit of a triple point between where the post-change SE'lies, the WSW'lies and the NNE'lies meet except in this case, the WSW'lies could break through to parts of the coast rather than staying inland.
Despite these complications, it still looks to me like there'll probably be storms at least somewhere in our region, some possibly severe... just a question of exactly where.

So in a nutshell from where I stand, today looks like the ranges near & south of the border, Saturday looks like featuring high cloud drifting across by morning with hit & miss activity quite late in the day (unless ACCESS-C's scenario comes true in which case activity may be a bit more extensive), and Sunday has the better potential in northern parts such as the Sunshine Coast/Wide Bay (but I don't like the NW'ly flow up there that much) with a chance further south near the coast (if the dryline can stay just inland of the coast enough, it could cause photogenic nukes to erupt along it near the coast but that's a big "if").
Not a huge amount of rainfall likely for most places on either day.

Will try to post thunderstorm maps on the mornings of both days. In the meantime, here's the latest extreme forecast index from the EC ensemble for the period 10am Sat to 10am Sun for max temps where +1 is very hot compared to the area and time of year - can see the belt of heat ahead of that change:



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#1448494 - 12/01/2018 18:13 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 286
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Awesome Ken.
Even if not much rain suggested in EC it will still be something to appreciate compared to recent weeks doldrums.
If some rain as ACCESS suggests all the better.
Nice to have any change this weekend

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#1448496 - 12/01/2018 18:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Aussiestormguy Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 41
Loc: Allora
Always love your work Ken. Seeing some decent lightning active stuff coming from the south of me ATM. Been so long since I got a decent photo. Looks like an interesting few days.

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#1448497 - 12/01/2018 18:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4882
No problem, I probably wouldn't get your hopes up too high for this weekend yet... could be a number of places that miss out on action entirely while some areas get lucky.

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#1448499 - 12/01/2018 18:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 697
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Heres hopin , Great work Ken guess it will be a case of doin it the old fashion way and keepin an eye to the sky.

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#1448501 - 12/01/2018 19:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3159
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Love your work Ken, aircons gona crank this weekend, still damn hot here 31C & 61% RH, very uncomfortable outside, inside NICE!

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#1448541 - 13/01/2018 02:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 555
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
Not gettin any hopes up this weekend, ?
Been typical boring mid-summer weather 'ere since xmas, even then went around GC hole - how desperate does one need to be to have to drive 50ks to get a rain spot - Damn, should just wash the car with the hose, but that means 'work' - cant win blush
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#1448544 - 13/01/2018 08:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4882
Unless it's widespread thunderstorms in a setup with deep moisture, extensive slow moving storms or a slow-moving squall line, I would never ever rely on storms as a source of worthwhile rainfall.
If you want more reliable exciting weather and explosive storms, I'd recommend areas such as Europe, the US, eastern Asia or southeastern South America lol

A few places in our region still look like they're in with a chance of a hit & miss shower or gusty storm this afternoon/evening while many places probably won't get anything.

Here's the latest thunderstorm map for today (til midnight) generated by GFS data:



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#1448553 - 13/01/2018 10:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1411
Loc: Australia
Thanks for the maps and info Ken. I'm curious as to why the northern inland NSW area are doing well for storms the last few days? Hows the atmosphere different in that region to produce storms when its only a few hundred km's from the SE QLD region?
Many thanks.

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#1448559 - 13/01/2018 11:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Stormwithin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/12/2016
Posts: 142
HI for the Lockyer Valley/Amberley amd areas surrounding looks concerning for today!

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#1448560 - 13/01/2018 11:21 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1519
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Looks like zero chance of any storm for Brisbane today and tomorrow. Looks like ipswich will be the same. Bom just downgraded the forecasts even more and I tend to agree with them. So continuing hot and dry without any releif all the way til next thursday. But today....... ZERO Chances
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#1448561 - 13/01/2018 11:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1519
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
I was thinking of driving west toward stanthorpe just to see a storm, but seems unlikely there as well.
As always hoping i am wrong.
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If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1448565 - 13/01/2018 12:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1090
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Disagree paul
Feels like a storm day.clouds way out west
Will see storms either today or tommorrow
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#1448569 - 13/01/2018 12:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: tsunami]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2033
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Agree with BOM. Might see a little patchy activity later tonight and offshore activity tomorrow but no show for today and tomorrow for Brisbane. The set-up just isn't right for us.

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#1448570 - 13/01/2018 12:21 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3159
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
37C with 32%RH atm. Bit of high cloud to the SW.

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#1448574 - 13/01/2018 12:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3024
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea heavily capped on the coast... but if it breaks there will be something but weak shear im doubtful but there might be atleast somthing. Steerings winds are WSW'ly.


Edited by Steve O (13/01/2018 12:43)

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#1448584 - 13/01/2018 14:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Kazz63 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2011
Posts: 1442
Loc: Kingaroy
Geez guys, such a sad bunch.
I can see potential there for us to get something in Kinga today; that one spot of lightning near Dirrinbandi just now on the end of that cloud bank, the movement NE of that lot... well I am staying positive that we may get a tinkle this evening.
That mass will at least inject some moisture into the atmosphere & bodes well for tomorrow as well.
And watching the gliders over head , I see there's a little extra movement in the air today as well.

We shall see I guess. Enjoy your air con!
grin
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#1448588 - 13/01/2018 14:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
thecatandme Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 04/03/2017
Posts: 14
Loc: Rifle Range, QLD
40.8 here at the moment. Netflix and aircon kind of day!

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#1448590 - 13/01/2018 14:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4882
I still love your username thecatandme haha

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#1448592 - 13/01/2018 14:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Some thunderstorms & heat - 12th to 14th January 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3159
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Was 39.2C before back out to slash & loose some beer ballast. 41.8C atm with a real nasty hot NW wind. Bit of cloud but not much of any structure to the SW atm.
Aircon, movies & beer time rest of the afternoon.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (13/01/2018 14:53)

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