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#1448141 - 09/01/2018 18:00 Vic – a repeat brief hot day but followed with stormy change this time?? 11-13/1/18
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7055
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
I’m led to believe brief hot periods are typical of weak La Nina in summer?

For my 2 bob’s – the briefer the better when it comes to very hot weather wink

GFS’s guess for the end of this week:



Should be enough moisture about for a stormy change this time surely??

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#1448146 - 09/01/2018 18:15 Re: Vic – a repeat brief hot day but followed with stormy change this time?? 11-13/1/18 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1267
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks for the thread Petros 👍

Like u say, another interesting bit of
Weather coming through at the end of week.
Mid 30's Thursday then Friday looks as tho
It could push 40c again!!
But yeah fingers crossed it does look like
A little more promising rain wise than the last
System, just hope the south west change dosent
Move through the system before it arrives and
Takes all the good juice away!
Really needing a good fall of rain now, the hills
Around here have really dried off now.

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#1448250 - 10/01/2018 09:26 Re: Vic – a repeat brief hot day but followed with stormy change this time?? 11-13/1/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7055
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Looks like the rain evident over WA/SA will make it to Vic central areas during Friday, acc. to AccR:


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#1448265 - 10/01/2018 11:56 Re: Vic – a repeat brief hot day but followed with stormy change this time?? 11-13/1/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2537
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Hope good rains as very dry, sick water garden.

Felt January is autumn night time feels cold last night of 11.7c...

After Friday Change Victoria will feel like autumn season night time temperatures between 11c to 13c for Sun,Mon,Tues.

Anomaly -2 to -3 this January nights.


Edited by chasers addict (10/01/2018 12:00)

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#1448277 - 10/01/2018 12:45 Re: Vic – a repeat brief hot day but followed with stormy change this time?? 11-13/1/18 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1267
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
We need all we can scrape out of this
Change p, as according to access g,
Next week could be a sustained period
Of heat?

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#1448387 - 11/01/2018 18:41 Re: Vic – a repeat brief hot day but followed with stormy change this time?? 11-13/1/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7055
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Look at the moisture streaming into Vic ahead of tomorrows change. Very confident for large storms with the pre'front/front tomorrow for large areas of Vic going by current WV map. smile

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#1448399 - 11/01/2018 21:07 Re: Vic – a repeat brief hot day but followed with stormy change this time?? 11-13/1/18 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7055
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
We need all we can scrape out of this
Change p, as according to access g,
Next week could be a sustained period
Of heat?


Looking hot this stage for Thursday next week going by GFS.

....but with a significant cyclone now active in WA, a week out is a very long time.

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#1448408 - 11/01/2018 21:54 Re: Vic – a repeat brief hot day but followed with stormy change this time?? 11-13/1/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7055
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Models all over the shop typical of a cyclone winding up, CMC is out, and this would be nice for us in Vic:


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#1448411 - 11/01/2018 22:21 Re: Vic – a repeat brief hot day but followed with stormy change this time?? 11-13/1/18 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1267
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
It's a hard one to pick?
If u look at gfs update this arvo, it seem
Like the system struggles to produce
The heavier totals?
And the BoM are only predicting 2-6mm
Tommoz arvo and 1-5mm for sat??
But in the actual forecast it reads 'chance of
Ts possible severe with heavy falls and large
Hail'?? Lol

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#1448458 - 12/01/2018 13:06 Re: Vic – a repeat brief hot day but followed with stormy change this time?? 11-13/1/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7055
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
CMC may not turn out to be too far off, we've got plenty of moisture laying ahead of the change about to impact Vic:


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#1448459 - 12/01/2018 13:22 Re: Vic – a repeat brief hot day but followed with stormy change this time?? 11-13/1/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2537
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thanks Petros

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/austeast/movies/gmswv/gmswv_loop.html

Looks like from Adelaide to West Victoria Thunderstorms likely to fire up when band compression thicken up by upper low belt...

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#1448464 - 12/01/2018 13:51 Re: Vic – a repeat brief hot day but followed with stormy change this time?? 11-13/1/18 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
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Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 713
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Heavy rain starting in the CBD now. Looks like Eastern suburbs and Eastern VIC primed to explode.

Doesn't look like the West will get much more than some steady rain?

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#1448465 - 12/01/2018 13:59 Re: Vic – a repeat brief hot day but followed with stormy change this time?? 11-13/1/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7055
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Had a mm of rain here in tropical-like showers this morning, hoping for a brief sunny break ahead of the weather that is currently over Melb.

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#1448467 - 12/01/2018 14:33 Re: Vic – a repeat brief hot day but followed with stormy change this time?? 11-13/1/18 [Re: Petros]
The Fishman Offline
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Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1139
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
As per usual, once it clears the forcefield it breaks open!
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1448470 - 12/01/2018 14:53 Re: Vic – a repeat brief hot day but followed with stormy change this time?? 11-13/1/18 [Re: The Fishman]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 713
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Originally Posted By: The Fishman
As per usual, once it clears the forcefield it breaks open!


To be fair it was modeled and forecast that way poke

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#1448471 - 12/01/2018 14:58 Re: Vic – a repeat brief hot day but followed with stormy change this time?? 11-13/1/18 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 786
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
1.5mm from the rain band this morning. Front passing through western LaTrobe Valley/Yarra Ranges looks sharp but intense.

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#1448475 - 12/01/2018 15:42 Re: Vic – a repeat brief hot day but followed with stormy change this time?? 11-13/1/18 [Re: balmz]
The Fishman Offline
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Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1139
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Originally Posted By: balmz
Originally Posted By: The Fishman
As per usual, once it clears the forcefield it breaks open!


To be fair it was modeled and forecast that way poke
. The models I saw were far higher around Yarra Glen and Hurstbridge; also late Friday, not lunchtime
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1448479 - 12/01/2018 16:10 Re: Vic – a repeat brief hot day but followed with stormy change this time?? 11-13/1/18 [Re: The Fishman]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 713
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Originally Posted By: The Fishman
The models I saw were far higher around Yarra Glen and Hurstbridge; also late Friday, not lunchtime


Yeah, true about timing, I just meant it was always meant to go bang East/SE/NE of the CBD unfortunately frown

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#1448498 - 12/01/2018 18:42 Re: Vic – a repeat brief hot day but followed with stormy change this time?? 11-13/1/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7055
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Well we didnt miss out smile

The storm front arrived circa 5pm here with plenty of thunder and 15-20 mins of decent rain.

I tallied 13mm in my gauge (includes a mm or 2 from this mornings humid showers), Royal Maffra will love it!!!:




Anything in addition when tonights rain band arrives, will be icing on the cake! smile

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#1448506 - 12/01/2018 20:55 Re: Vic – a repeat brief hot day but followed with stormy change this time?? 11-13/1/18 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
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Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6322
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
It took several goes and a period of fog this evening but we got to 2.5mm. Max today was 27.2c back to 14.9c atm
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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