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#838086 - 24/02/2010 17:33 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: seaworthy]
-Deano- Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/10/2008
Posts: 2931
Loc: Melton VIC
Mum has got so many plants though that most of our 5 hour allocation is spent watering them, so the grass never really gets anything...

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#838093 - 24/02/2010 18:06 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: -Deano-]
Helen Offline
Moderator

Registered: 07/11/2001
Posts: 9653
Loc: Mid North, SA
I do have to have a giggle when those on the plains grump when they don't get average rains. Our average for February is a mere 10mm but we've only had 0.6mm for the month (yep, all that rain you've seen on the radar of late has missed us by a country mile). Last February was no different; 0.0mm, Feb '08 we got 0.2mm, Feb '07 it was 0.0mm and Feb '06 it was 5.5mm... see a pattern? poke

...and of course the city folk can rely on town water, even if it's at a restricted rate, unlike us mortals who don't have that luxury. Of course there's a positive side to everything, we don't have to pay for a desalination plant that we'll never use. wink
_________________________
2017 YTD - 67.8mm Yearly Average - 403mm
Jan - 32.8mm (10mm) / Feb - 35.0mm (10mm) / Mar - - (15mm) / Apr - - (31mm)
May - - (46mm) / June - - (51mm) / July - - (59mm) / Aug - - (54mm)
Sept - - (48mm) / Oct - - (38mm) / Nov - - (23mm) / Dec - - (18mm)
Total 2016 - 637.2mm



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#838108 - 24/02/2010 18:40 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Helen]
seaworthy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/08/2004
Posts: 3673
Loc: Gawler East, SA - 102m
Its not about relying on town water I don't think Helen, it's about expecting it to rain when history suggests otherwise and sitting down and having a damn good look at some climatological averages.

Of course for the average to be 13mm in Adelaide you have to actually get falls either side of this, i.e. some Februarys 0.0mm and some 30 or 40 if you are lucky. But 13mm does not lend itself to too many extreme falls at any sort of even miniscule frequency

I'm only speaking for myself of course, but I certainly dont waste water down here because I'm on mains, water still costs money but I enjoy gardening and have an obligation to keep the garden alive as the rental agreement stipulates.

On a more positive note, there looks to be another ex tropical low moving over the NE.. geez they are getting plastered this February. but then again they probably wont see 50mm for another 12 months afterwards.. ah, don't you just love weather

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#838110 - 24/02/2010 18:48 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: seaworthy]
-Deano- Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/10/2008
Posts: 2931
Loc: Melton VIC
I know, but the thing is that I've been recording rain for 7 years now (I know that's not exactly a long time in the context of things, but still long enough to give a general idea of things) and there has not been a single February that has even reached half the average. We haven't reached 10mm even once! I know it's stupid to expect big falls (which, by the way, is not what I expect) but it is fair enough to expect SOME rain. After all, that is what the averages are saying...

I spose all this is starting to point back to the post I made a couple of weeks ago about the indication that seasons may be changing now as climate change surges ahead.

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#838117 - 24/02/2010 19:19 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: -Deano-]
_Sarah_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/10/2005
Posts: 3638
Loc: Salisbury North SA
I'm glad the temps 33C on Saturday cause it's my 18th and I'm having a family get together that day smile smile

I haven't recorded much either, but I'm waiting for winter as thats when the best rains fall here (July last year = 107mm) smile

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#838127 - 24/02/2010 19:48 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: _Sarah_]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17558
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Keep an eye on that monsoonal low up north that is coming down into central Australia.
Apart from it likely to give SA/NT border areas up to 350mm in the next week (Moomba might get ANOTHER 150mm), EC actually has it moving well south (centred around Flinders Rgs) by this time next week, while GFS has it heading more into NW NSW to give the Darling another drink...

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#838134 - 24/02/2010 20:15 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: teckert]
upper level disturbance Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/05/2001
Posts: 1182
Loc: Canberra
Originally Posted By: teckert
Keep an eye on that monsoonal low up north that is coming down into central Australia.
Apart from it likely to give SA/NT border areas up to 350mm in the next week (Moomba might get ANOTHER 150mm), EC actually has it moving well south (centred around Flinders Rgs) by this time next week, while GFS has it heading more into NW NSW to give the Darling another drink...

Interesting times Tim. It seems just about every monsoonal low or cyclone, forming in the tropical NW, this wet season, has had the wherewithal to make its way south or south east this year. I wonder why the conditions have favoured southern migration this year!?

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#838135 - 24/02/2010 20:15 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: -Deano-]
_Chris_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/03/2009
Posts: 1143
Loc: Marleston
Quote:

I spose all this is starting to point back to the post I made a couple of weeks ago about the indication that seasons may be changing now as climate change surges ahead.

Yep, a couple of dry February's are definitive proof of climate change. I think Ian's latest publication is very relevant to this current topic. As TS and Helen have already stated, it's well worth the read!

Also, Lower Murray/South East is looking pretty damn tempting for Saturday afternoon at this stage!!- http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/stormcast.html?region=sa&datem=aest&date=2010022706&chart=li#stormcast


Edited by _Chris_ (24/02/2010 20:22)

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#838136 - 24/02/2010 20:17 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: teckert]
---- Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/11/2002
Posts: 5786
My garden is as green as I want it to be with over 1/4 acre of lawn probably more, maybe almost a half?

No water restrictions for me. I have never run out of water.
But it takes a LOT of water to keep it this way and it doesn't come for free, it costs a reasonable amount of electricity to keep the taps flowing. My cool climate helps the garden. A lot.

Adelaide is a desert city. You only have to travel a bit to realise this.
More than rainfall its temps that cause the most damage but its rainfall is pretty darn poor.

Down my way there has been a noticable compression in rainfall. Summers have become marginally drier (not necessarily hotter), autumns noticably drier, winters have been generally higher than average especially june and july, but dropping off by august which is running lower than the long term average while spring has seen perhaps the biggest drop.
Its almost a wet and dry season, almost. There is an enormous range during a 12 month with it going from incredibly dry to sopping wet to incredibly dry. Even Adelaide does not experience quite this variation going from incredibly dry to moderately dampish to incredibly dry.

I don't expect much rain at all during the summer months, however the last 2 years have been noticeably poor (and frigggin boring as watching cow [censored] decompose into the paddock). Rainfall for the YTD is paltry enough that it may as well have not fallen. My relatively cool summer, especially evenings, has saved thousands of litres of water garden and stock wise.


Edited by -hillsrain- (24/02/2010 20:21)

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#838140 - 24/02/2010 20:34 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: ----]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2083
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Heya everyone i am finally back online after a week of no access to the site due to forgetting my password but thank god to the advances in technology im able to keep up to date with everything happening via my laptop due to the desktop not working properly and frying its brain out

What have i missed in the last week or so someone get me up to speed smile

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#838143 - 24/02/2010 20:41 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: ----]
aztech. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/11/2008
Posts: 1254
Loc: Port Lincoln, Eyre Peninsula
Lawn bowls looks the go at yours Timmy! I like the roll of the hill could correct that with a few ales!!
saturday YES! still looks good for some action AND I have the weekend free and a tank full of juice, I/we(family)can travel just about anywhere on EP this weekend chasing, apart from Whyalla, a little too far, I at this stage think Ill go straight up the guts of EP Cummins - Lock - Kyancutta, see what I get, might have to go a little more east, but finally its looking OK for a weekend chase and free time beckons!

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#838155 - 24/02/2010 21:49 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: aztech.]
seaworthy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/08/2004
Posts: 3673
Loc: Gawler East, SA - 102m
A couple of dry Februarys is evidence of climate change Chris? Not sure I agree

Anyway, we may have had no rain but there have been plenty of chasing opportunities lately, more than I can ever recall at this time of year.

Nice post too TT totally agree.

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#838156 - 24/02/2010 21:56 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: seaworthy]
_Chris_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/03/2009
Posts: 1143
Loc: Marleston
Sorry Seaworthy, I was trying to convey a sense of sarcasm in response to the quote.

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#838159 - 24/02/2010 22:07 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: _Chris_]
seaworthy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/08/2004
Posts: 3673
Loc: Gawler East, SA - 102m
I thought so, but wasn't quite sure. I was thinking to myself "I know Chris is smarter than that!" poke

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#838166 - 24/02/2010 22:34 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: seaworthy]
-Deano- Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/10/2008
Posts: 2931
Loc: Melton VIC
I did say that only having 7 years worth of data to go on is no where near enough to really prove anything, but having not one single February in that period reach even half of average is pretty astounding and may be an indicator of things to come if climate change does continue...

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#838186 - 25/02/2010 00:51 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: -Deano-]
Skysthelimit Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2008
Posts: 1131
Loc: Gladstone Sth Aust
Hmmm, it just goes to show. Get lucky enough to be under a random thunderstorm and make a mockery of monthly averages. I know it a little late but these are pics from Feb 10. First the rain shaft that gave us at Happy Rock 17mm. The same storm hitting Crystal Brook and another cell that, from memory, gave Snowtown over an inch of rain. Those with good vision may be able to spot smoke in the R/H bottom corner at the shaft base from a lightning fire.






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#838199 - 25/02/2010 02:04 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Skysthelimit]
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6458
Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
Looks like Perth and Adelaide aren't going to have similar temps now on Saturday eg Perth 39 and Adelaide 37 deg. I think last time I checked you guys are in for 33deg instead.



Edited by vinny06 (25/02/2010 02:05)
_________________________

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#838220 - 25/02/2010 10:16 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Vinnie]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17558
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
yep thats because we are under the influence of 2 completely different weather patterns!!!!!

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#838229 - 25/02/2010 10:41 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: teckert]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17558
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Originally Posted By: teckert
Keep an eye on that monsoonal low up north that is coming down into central Australia.
Apart from it likely to give SA/NT border areas up to 350mm in the next week (Moomba might get ANOTHER 150mm), EC actually has it moving well south (centred around Flinders Rgs) by this time next week, while GFS has it heading more into NW NSW to give the Darling another drink...


Interesting to see EC remove the low pretty much, while GFS has it now coming down over us middle of next week....
Will be very interesting to monitor the models over the coming week....

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#838232 - 25/02/2010 10:47 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: teckert]
Stargate Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/09/2003
Posts: 731
Loc: Daveron Park, Northern Suburb...
This monsoonal low still deepening is there anything that could bring it Southward, it looks very cyclonic to me 'could' it change direction? blush nerd

Sorry for a dumb question!! What is stopping the tropical infeed from the N & NW to the South?

Steve

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