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#1449650 - 22/01/2018 10:24 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12986
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Looks like Townsville might see 100mm in total this week, even less for Southern parts of the Herbie Burdie.

This time of year is a forecasting nightmare, even more so when the MT is hanging around.
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Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1449692 - 22/01/2018 15:51 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1141
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
GFS is now moving the heavier stuff north and west - in the last 3-4 runs the line of heavy rain has consistently crept further north. By the time Friday comes around i reckon i will show H-B receiving very little.
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Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

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#1449694 - 22/01/2018 16:08 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12986
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
That's only one model though. OCF (which takes into account 8 computer models) is still forecasting 60mm for Townsville in the coming week, areas around Ingham significantly more.

http://www.australianweathernews.com/OCF/OCF_032.HTM

Still abysmal totals for Townsville taking into consideration how active the MT is. BUT given how unpredictible and volatile the effects of a strengthening MT can be, I wouldn't be crying into my beer just yet.
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Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1449697 - 22/01/2018 16:46 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1141
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
True this^^

last week is a prime example. 100-150mm was predicted in areas that got over 300mm.
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Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

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#1449710 - 22/01/2018 18:04 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
That ocf forecast is disappointing. Not much rain forecast. I joked about that rain in oct and nov being all we will get. Sadly seems true so far. Although plenty time left yet for good falls. Just amnoying to waiting.
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1449736 - 22/01/2018 20:02 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Nah right off January too folks. Few showers this week, 20mm if lucky.

Be another year of below average January rainfall. My last above average January at home was 2011. Sickening really for our second wettest month of the year.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1449767 - 23/01/2018 08:16 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Agreed Mick. Lets hope feb is better.
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1449778 - 23/01/2018 09:45 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1141
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
OCF has even backed off quite a bit now...

Next please
_________________________
Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

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#1449786 - 23/01/2018 10:34 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14224
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
OK almost 3 months in and I'm calling it for what it is, another failed wet season. Come on mother nature prove me wrong, again, I dare ya, I double dare ya.

FFS I need a cyclone like a red headed step child needs a friend.
_________________________
Oct 27mm
2018 Total 770mm






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#1449816 - 23/01/2018 16:36 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Looking good in radar down south...may not be heavy but least its something.

Also bit early to call it. Still got Feb, march and April left. Dont forget April is a player, granted not a big player but occasionally can be. Even May can be a player on the even rarer occasion. Come June if its more of the same then call it LMAO.


Edited by rainthisway (23/01/2018 16:42)
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1449880 - 23/01/2018 21:44 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
models not showing anything for February, in fact well below average. March average (just).
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1449882 - 23/01/2018 21:53 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12986
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
What models predict accurately that far out though Mick?
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1449884 - 23/01/2018 21:56 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
hey RD,

i look at the long range CFS on tropical tidbits -
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...012212&fh=1
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1449886 - 23/01/2018 22:06 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12986
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Based on that forecast, Feb in Townsville looks like it will be 30-50mm below average. That's a big chunk out of the mean average of 296.8mm, but even if we got 50mm less that's still 247mm for the month.

I think it's waaayy to early to write anything off just yet.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1449894 - 23/01/2018 23:05 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
gazzatsv Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/03/2011
Posts: 664
Loc: Townsville
You don’t need a model RD. Once this mjo and monsoon burst passes we are in a supressed phase and the chances of getting meaningful rain are lower. And even if we get to 247mm for the month, that won’t put a dent in the dam.

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#1449898 - 23/01/2018 23:30 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1141
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
So much for La Niña!
_________________________
Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

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#1449904 - 24/01/2018 01:00 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
I cant see us getting anymore than 100mm next month RD.
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2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1449916 - 24/01/2018 08:19 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12986
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
7.5mm in BG overnight.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1449917 - 24/01/2018 08:45 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 809
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
This sucks. So once this monsoon burst ends we prob wont get another till what march?
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1449929 - 24/01/2018 10:04 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
looking likely mate, obviously we dont need an mjo to get rain events in February, decent coral sea trough moving west can do wonders, but with upper system not favourable, its unlikely that anything significant in the coral sea will move towards the coast. and i cant remember the last time we had a SE moving system from the GOC - been a long long time.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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