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#1446441 - 31/12/2017 07:04 Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc)
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18548
Loc: The Beach.
Welcome to 2018 and happy new year. Please remember that the admin of this site have banned global warming discussion on this forum so kindly take it elsewhere.

The official ENSO status at time of writing is Weak LaNina and there is division about its effect on certain areas of Australia.

I thought I'd start with BoM's rainfall probabilities for Jan-March issued on the 21st of December for the sake of reference in a few months time.


The 30 day SOI



and BoM's most recent ENSO update.



...and October rainfall which broke records around the Wide Bay region. This LaNina was very late developing.



..and November


_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1446623 - 01/01/2018 14:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7348
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Current WV image, shows the ex TC Hilda drifting over NE SA, and plenty of convection happening in NW Qld - ...and the ex Qld coastal ridge pushed up North (well for now at least):



Edited by Petros (01/01/2018 14:06)

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#1446625 - 01/01/2018 14:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
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Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8561
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
I didn't even realise the areas near and around T'sville and Cairns got record rains in Oct as well. Nov above average too, so even if Jan-Apr are average or slightly below, they'll finish with an above avg wet season.

In other news, the disturbance on the NT/QLD border is getting close to the GOC potentially developing into a TC, swinging around the NW and doing a Hilda. Just a theoretical.

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#1446626 - 01/01/2018 14:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18548
Loc: The Beach.
December wasn't so great though in many parts of NQ (we did well here in Wide Bay) and areas like Townsville are off a low base in October also.

_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1446642 - 01/01/2018 15:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2604
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
That trough pushing north is what EC said would drag the monsoon down. That MSC on southern GoC looks like a continental squallline often associated with the northward moving trough developing into a monsoon trough.

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#1446644 - 01/01/2018 16:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8561
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
NE NSW/SE QLD getting their severe storms on an almost daily basis, giant hail at Kempsey and few other places as we speak - typical of La Nina.

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#1446655 - 01/01/2018 16:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2604
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
LRH the problem as I see it is this: people keep judging (or expecting) this La Niña to behave like a full blown late Dec / early Jan La Niña when by ‘age’ it is in fact only an ‘October aged’ La Niña

Whether it has time to explode into the mature stage time will tell. If it does, and those SST’s remain off the east coast, then look out.

Compare standard La Niña spring rainfall



To 2017



Still looks pretty La Nina’ish to me, even with the late start.

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#1446659 - 01/01/2018 16:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
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Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8561
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Indeed, they're also pointing out mostly the negatives and ignoring those big positive falls, even if some are not widespread, are still significant. My bet is a change to troughy conditions for the east coast from about mid-Jan. EC is hinting around the 10th.

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#1446665 - 01/01/2018 17:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3294
Loc: Buderim
December rainfall for eastern Australia was 23.8mm below average - 33% less rain than normal, or 29th driest December out of 118 years of record. Despite this some are ignoring the big picture and claiming that increased rainfall in their backyards reflects increased moisture supplied by La Nina....

For the last few months:

Dec -23.8
Nov -3.3
Oct +33.3
Sep -16

Total for complete months since nino 3.4 went below 0 (mid August) is 10mm below average.

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#1446668 - 01/01/2018 17:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2604
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
And right on queue....

They’re all over the place this mob - one minute “one months great rain doesn’t make it a La Niña” then “one months bad rain means his La Niña is a dud..” sigh wish they’d make their minds up.

Meanwhile it just keeps rolling on, with deep active trough and another day of supercells across QLD and NE NSW.


Edited by Kino (01/01/2018 17:39)

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#1446670 - 01/01/2018 17:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8561
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Ext-GFS will make them make up their minds if it comes off, NW all the way to E NSW under water with that prediction laugh

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#1446671 - 01/01/2018 17:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1818
Loc: Kingaroy
GFS is predicting another big trade wind burst shortly.

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#1446690 - 01/01/2018 18:39 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7348
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
December rainfall for eastern Australia was 23.8mm below average - 33% less rain than normal, or 29th driest December out of 118 years of record. Despite this some are ignoring the big picture and claiming that increased rainfall in their backyards reflects increased moisture supplied by La Nina....

For the last few months:

Dec -23.8
Nov -3.3
Oct +33.3
Sep -16

Total for complete months since nino 3.4 went below 0 (mid August) is 10mm below average.


23mm below normal. For the whole of easte...rn Australia, ....hmm to state a deficiency in terms of mm rain, can I assume that you believe the whole east coast of Aust. experiences identical rainfall averages?

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#1446707 - 01/01/2018 19:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
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Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2338
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
I was under the understanding storm activity is generally not indicative of either an El Nino or a La Nina.

La Nina would mean broad trough systems dumping general rain on a wide scale. Not lots of small isolated storms that might eventually all join up to make it appear like general rain has fallen.

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#1446713 - 01/01/2018 19:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
ColdFront Offline
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Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18548
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Despite this some are ignoring the big picture


laugh laugh laugh
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1446715 - 01/01/2018 19:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2604
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
The irony, right?

RC that’s a misconception. Moderate to strong La Nina’s are more prone to rain events, sure, but cool neutral to moderate la Nina’s imo are prone to Wet storm events.

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#1446746 - 01/01/2018 21:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25302
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
I didn't even realise the areas near and around T'sville and Cairns got record rains in Oct as well. Nov above average too, so even if Jan-Apr are average or slightly below, they'll finish with an above avg wet season.


we had one wet day in october, the average is about 15mm, we smashed it. was the first rains since May, and we have had just one 15mm storm since. one wet day in 7 months does not mean the drought has broken and La Nina has its claws on us.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1446757 - 01/01/2018 21:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5096
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Yeah. Despite oct and November being ok rainwise it is almost irrelevant now. December has been so dry it has completely negated and even reversed any benifit we recieved in the spring. The level of evaporation up here at the moment would have to be nearly unheard of. Hopefully this later start is relevant to the fact it was a late developing nina

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#1446886 - 02/01/2018 17:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2604
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Because of course, a La Niña is purely judged on whether one gets rain over their particular area.

Meanwhile, a thousand km of the east coast today is under severe storm warnings, with massive hail, damaging winds, tornados and torrential rain falling, but hey, nothing to do with La Niña.


Edited by Kino (02/01/2018 17:51)

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#1446911 - 02/01/2018 18:44 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7348
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...

Wow at the current widespread storm outbreak across large areas of QLD/NSW.



Lovely moisture streaming in from the MJO 4-5 Indonesian region?



.....now it's us in SE Aus getting jealous!


Edited by Petros (02/01/2018 18:47)

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