Page 13 of 56 < 1 2 ... 11 12 13 14 15 ... 55 56 >
Topic Options
#1448296 - 10/01/2018 16:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6943
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
GFS Extended has been showing a strong monsoonal surge pushing across the top end in 2 weeks time but I wouldn't want to call it this far out.

Top
#1448297 - 10/01/2018 16:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1902
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mega
GFS Extended has been showing a strong monsoonal surge pushing across the top end in 2 weeks time but I wouldn't want to call it this far out.


Agree, for the BoM to note it they must be pretty confident.

Top
#1448300 - 10/01/2018 17:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 575
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
It's also showing a high pressure system in the coral sea. What's going on there?

Top
#1448303 - 10/01/2018 19:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6883
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Big call that Qld will do poor for rainfall from here-on to end of the tropical season for Qld Mike Hauber. If that happens, I'll be the first to take my hat off to you!

Top
#1448319 - 10/01/2018 22:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1786
Loc: Kingaroy
La Nina could be about to strengthen quite quickly if the current GFS trade wind forecast comes off.

Top
#1448322 - 10/01/2018 22:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 399
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Putting aside the La Niņa "state", the period around Australia Day is always interesting.
My observation (or more specifically unfounded opinion) is that heat absorption peak from the sun lags behind the cycles of daylight hours. Coldest day of year often about four to six weeks after shortest day of year. Hottest days albeit depending on cloudiness often around late Jan early Feb again Four to six weeks after longest day of the year.
There are a remarkable number of Sub topics region most major floods in history that happen at this time.
But that said anywhere south of Fraser Island can get floods at almost anytime of year thanks to ECLs so I don't write off any so called south east Qld wet season until June.

Top
#1448412 - 11/01/2018 22:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 399
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
So BoM issued the 11 Jan climate outlook today.
For much of Qld except the far north cape suggests about 55-60% chance of exceeding February to April median rainfall (that happens anyway 50% of years at this time of year), and past accuracy is about 50% consistent. Sort of pointless producing a colour map for that and it would probably be easier and more widely understood if was said it will be about average and we think we half right👍
For Western Australia though February looking good.
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

Top
#1448416 - 11/01/2018 22:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 399
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Forecast MJO on GFS ensemble "GEFS" for about two weeks away now looking good compared to recent forecasts.
BOMs model MJO forecast (not sure if it is POAMA or ACCESS) also looking good. Hopefully ECMWF will come on board as well.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ncpe.shtml

Top
#1448432 - 12/01/2018 09:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3042
Loc: Buderim
GFS long range has some activity firing up in 2 weeks time which although very long range is in the right time frame considering current MJO movements and forecast. Every run chops and changes where lows may pop up anywhere north of Australia, and which direction they take - this run takes the eastern low SW towards the Qld coast with a strong easterly feed.

It will depend on how the eastern ridge behaves. Maybe it will give way to the monsoon surge, or happen to be weak in between two southern highs when the surge arrives so that it has less impact. Some of the surge could be trapped to the west of the ridge and push south for some big rainfall in central or inland eastern Australia, wich is a little like an el nino modoki type thing with wet season starting late, ending early but intense rains. Or the ridge could deflect the surge more to the north with it pushing into Pacific for the next WWB, similar to the last MJO passage.

Top
#1448438 - 12/01/2018 09:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1786
Loc: Kingaroy
GFS is increasing the size of the trade burst even more, be interesting to see what effects it will have, CFS has responded and has several runs predicting 3.4 to go below -2 which would be dramatic if it did

Top
#1448441 - 12/01/2018 09:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 575
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
SAM forecast to go high positive should help.

An observation. Seems Indonesia has had a very good surf for its off season. Lots of swell.

Top
#1448454 - 12/01/2018 12:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 266
Loc: Golden Beach
In Bali now - constant heavy monsoonal showers and squalls.

Top
#1448456 - 12/01/2018 12:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1527
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
lots of moisture streaming across the continent again......

Top
#1448457 - 12/01/2018 13:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6883
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep Gringo, looks impressive:



Good to see SW Qld getting a little something, while the rest of the state suffers under that well-noted, and persistent, coastal ridge that keeps re-forming.

I feel greedy down here in SW Vic hoping for a storm/12mm+ rain in coming hours when the change impacts us from the SW. .....then there's talk of snow on the alps Nth of here tomorrow night. Australia for you.

Top
#1448473 - 12/01/2018 15:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6943
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
All slips south into southern NT / WA



Just like what happened to last year's wet season:



But then we're supposed to believe that whatever rain falls in WA will transfer into NSW & QLD. Alrighty. Maybe if there wasn't a huge ridge over our side of the country, but otherwise - no.

Top
#1448477 - 12/01/2018 15:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6943
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Given the MJO is stuck in the IO this is completely normal though. When the MJO pushes east it will contract the tropical convection along with it into NT / NW QLD which is more favorable for NSW / QLD IF a front just happens to come along and capture that tropical moisture. If not - then we'll just be ridged in down here, but at least NQ will hopefully see a long awaited monsoon.

Top
#1448478 - 12/01/2018 15:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1527
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Agreed. But if the MJO was stuck there in a neutral or Elnino, the same thing would be happening IMO. It has been raining in SA and Victoria today and its streaming across the country from that highly active region. The blocking high will mean sweet FA in the east until it properly moves and lets low pressure develop over coastal regions....not just once every 3 or 6 months but regularly (or a full change to LP dominance instead of HP off the east coast. TC in coral sea in 12-14 days time.....see what happens.

Top
#1448490 - 12/01/2018 17:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25255
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Originally Posted By: Mega


But then we're supposed to believe that whatever rain falls in WA will transfer into NSW & QLD. Alrighty. Maybe if there wasn't a huge ridge over our side of the country, but otherwise - no.


its all to do with our geographical positioning Mega! crazy
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
March 2018 total - 296mm (194mm)
April 2018 total - 12.4mm (66mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 794.4mm (1107mm)

Top
#1448495 - 12/01/2018 18:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 399
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
The Qld high pressure ridge is getting boring.
When it goes will be welcome
Bring on the MJO...a bit further east please, and maybe some SAM too.

Top
#1448549 - 13/01/2018 08:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4485
Loc: Wynnum
Flowin - Wait for the sun to start its next turn around starting maybe 2019-20.


Edited by retired weather man (13/01/2018 08:53)
Edit Reason: addition.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.6(96)YTD558.2(527.3),

Top
Page 13 of 56 < 1 2 ... 11 12 13 14 15 ... 55 56 >


Who's Online
6 registered (Summ3r, Muzza, Un_stable, Sidney, 2 invisible), 329 Guests and 2 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
MrMeh, outbackellis, snow more
Forum Stats
29543 Members
32 Forums
23882 Topics
1489388 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image