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#1447324 - 04/01/2018 23:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
S .O. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1540
Loc: Southern Victoria
The Timor Sea would be classified as part of the Indian Ocean . To atleast Darwin . If you want to really split hairs some may say till the INDONESIA - Papua New Guinea Border . ( Excluding the GoC ) as to my knowledge there is little flow of currents down and through the actual shallow ( massive bay ) . Obviously through Torres Strait there is transfer , but most flow would be further Nth out of the Bay .



Edited by S .O. (04/01/2018 23:15)
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#1447327 - 04/01/2018 23:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Dawgggg]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18406
Loc: Burnett Heads
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg


Where is this average rainfall you were talking about.


You live in Townsville. I still cannot believe you guys complain about lack of rain in that place even after all these years.
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"When it comes to the weather, "occasionally" is better than "not at all".

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#1447340 - 05/01/2018 05:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7016
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Kino
From the BoM:

Originally Posted By: BoM
A surface trough, which extends from the northwest of the state through the central and southeastern interior, will move to the west over the next few days. A coastal trough over Capricornia Waters will move north along the east coast today and Friday


No mention of any upper feature, nw flow nadda, zilch. All that upper trough will be doing is aiding divergence to remove the dead air away from the surface trough & storms and dumping it off the QLD coast.


Yeah there is definitely an upper trough there - it is part of the STJ which runs out off the QLD coast and then becomes part of the low near NZ. Though I'd imagine all it'd be really doing at that level is aiding those thunderstorm's outflow by shearing the rubbish tops off to the SE more than anything else. Probably why the Bureau never bothered to mention it.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018010412/gfs_uv200_swpac_1.png

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View


Edited by Mega (05/01/2018 06:00)

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#1447341 - 05/01/2018 06:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25275
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg


Where is this average rainfall you were talking about.


You live in Townsville. I still cannot believe you guys complain about lack of rain in that place even after all these years.


Perhaps not leaving out the clinch one liner in the quote might help -

Originally Posted By: Dawgggg


This is the worst october-dec ive seen here.

Where is this average rainfall you were talking about.


wink
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1447359 - 05/01/2018 10:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1790
Loc: Kingaroy
Looks like La Nina could be showing signs of strengthening and that warm pool could also be getting pushed back to the west, every trade burst we're getting is deepening that cold pool

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#1447367 - 05/01/2018 11:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mick10]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18406
Loc: Burnett Heads
Originally Posted By: Mick10


Perhaps not leaving out the clinch one liner in the quote might help -





Makes no difference, The result is the same. Townsville went through this in the 90's and will again. It has nothing to do with one liners and plenty to do with geography.
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"When it comes to the weather, "occasionally" is better than "not at all".

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#1447391 - 05/01/2018 14:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25275
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Originally Posted By: ColdFront


Makes no difference, The result is the same. Townsville went through this in the 90's and will again. It has nothing to do with one liners and plenty to do with geography.


so? everyplace has its drought, why does that not mean that people from Townsville cant complain about a lack of rain after 5 years of below average rainfall? Travs comment was that he was of opinion the oct to dec period was the worst he has ever seen, you left that part of his comment out, it is very relevant to the current topic in this thread.

the city has lower rainfall averages than other areas around it because of its geography, however the reason for lower than average years is not because of its geography.
Cairns had a below average year in 2017, was that because of its geography?
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1447392 - 05/01/2018 14:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mick10]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18406
Loc: Burnett Heads
Originally Posted By: Mick10
Originally Posted By: ColdFront


Makes no difference, The result is the same. Townsville went through this in the 90's and will again. It has nothing to do with one liners and plenty to do with geography.


so? everyplace has its drought, why does that not mean that people from Townsville cant complain about a lack of rain after 5 years of below average rainfall? Travs comment was that he was of opinion the oct to dec period was the worst he has ever seen, you left that part of his comment out, it is very relevant to the current topic in this thread.

the city has lower rainfall averages than other areas around it because of its geography, however the reason for lower than average years is not because of its geography.
Cairns had a below average year in 2017, was that because of its geography?


The heat must be insane up there. I certainly don't miss it.

Mean and Median are two different things.
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"When it comes to the weather, "occasionally" is better than "not at all".

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#1447397 - 05/01/2018 15:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
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Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18406
Loc: Burnett Heads
If I could send our rainfall up that way I would. We certainly don't need anymore at the moment.

I've had 170mm in the past 3 hours at home. Bundy is 15 kilometres away in a straight line and hasn't had a drop. It sure is a crazy climate in this country.
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#1447409 - 05/01/2018 16:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23687
Loc: Townsville
Id rather my 9mm 😂😂😂😛😛😛


Edited by Dawgggg (05/01/2018 16:21)
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#1447413 - 05/01/2018 16:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Dawgggg]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18406
Loc: Burnett Heads
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Id rather my 9mm 😂😂😂😛😛😛


I had no idea hand guns were legal wink

Ended up with 187 mm here.
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"When it comes to the weather, "occasionally" is better than "not at all".

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#1447418 - 05/01/2018 16:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2263
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Love the weather's sense of humour at times - Nth QLD'ers complaining (and understandably so) about La Nina and no rain...within a few days torrential rain and storms arrive (and more rain than I've seen in nearly 3 months btw...). Cest La Vie.

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#1447419 - 05/01/2018 17:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5091
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: Kino
Love the weather's sense of humour at times - Nth QLD'ers complaining (and understandably so) about La Nina and no rain...within a few days torrential rain and storms arrive (and more rain than I've seen in nearly 3 months btw...). Cest La Vie.


Haha. Very true. But lets not jump the gun. I have no doubt we will see some decent rain over the next few months but two days does not a wet season make. If this is the switch being flicked all good and well but if is only a short lived reprieve again not so good. December has been extremely notable for any prevailing ENSO state but even moreso given we are in a Nina and even if Nina kicks into gear now the oddity that was December 2017 will always remain

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#1447423 - 05/01/2018 17:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2263
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Why not? You guys wrote-off the La Nina the same way? Some of us on here said it'd be a wet Jan and on and there was much scoffing (and still is...). Yep, it's early days but it's looking promising.

And Dec doesn't surprise me given La Nina formed so late - I made the comment it's more like Sept/Oct weather than December weather. Hopefully the forecast trade bursts will eventuate, the monsoon trough arrives and you get plenty of rain, as I really look forward to the 'I told you so..." wink


Edited by Kino (05/01/2018 17:07)

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#1447426 - 05/01/2018 17:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5091
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: Kino
Why not? You guys wrote-off the La Nina the same way? Some of us on here said it'd be a wet Jan and on and there was much scoffing (and still is...). Yep, it's early days but it's looking promising.


Well I never wrote it off. I think I said something along the lines of 'when it goes it will go hard'. And it does look promising. No doubt about it. But lets wait and see before we decide what is happening. This is not monsoonal and is likely due to the insane build up of energy over the last month meeting the solid easterly flow coming in off the coral sea. will this setup continue and will we keep seeing real 'wet season' rain? That is the question that only time will answer.

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#1447427 - 05/01/2018 17:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18406
Loc: Burnett Heads
Originally Posted By: Kino


And Dec doesn't surprise me given La Nina formed so late


December is often a dry month regardless ,especially in Qld.
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"When it comes to the weather, "occasionally" is better than "not at all".

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#1447428 - 05/01/2018 17:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2263
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
All models now have the tropics firing up with widespread storms, rain and lows and possible TC's. The trigger is there; now we await the pulling.

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#1447431 - 05/01/2018 17:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5091
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: Kino
Why not? You guys wrote-off the La Nina the same way? Some of us on here said it'd be a wet Jan and on and there was much scoffing (and still is...). Yep, it's early days but it's looking promising.

And Dec doesn't surprise me given La Nina formed so late - I made the comment it's more like Sept/Oct weather than December weather. Hopefully the forecast trade bursts will eventuate, the monsoon trough arrives and you get plenty of rain, as I really look forward to the 'I told you so..." wink


December probably didn't surprise you because I highly doubt you understand what it was like. It wasn't like sep/oct weather. It was far drier. FAR drier. The amount of rain was one thing but it was the heat combined with the low humidity levels that made the difference. Driest December since 1951(plus crazy low humidity) and if anyone does not see that as notable then they are not interested in weather and more interested in 'I told you so' wink . I am with you in that I think this Nina will produce but that does not mean those taking note of December are wrong.


Edited by Brett Guy (05/01/2018 17:29)

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#1447433 - 05/01/2018 17:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25275
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Originally Posted By: Kino
Love the weather's sense of humour at times - Nth QLD'ers complaining (and understandably so) about La Nina and no rain...within a few days torrential rain and storms arrive (and more rain than I've seen in nearly 3 months btw...). Cest La Vie.


the weather across NQ this week is what we should be getting in late November not early January. I have had some 80mm this week, which is damn fantastic, but 5km has had less than half that. While signs are great for increasing moisture, it is expected that this time of year it should be there, not one and half months late. hopefully as you say the change is coming up here, but its certainly not here yet.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1447439 - 05/01/2018 17:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3123
Loc: Buderim
Scattered showers and storms as occurred in QLD the last day and a bit, and as forecast for much of the eastern tropics for the next 2 weeks is not going to even get you to average rainfall let alone good rains. Which is only to be expected as the MJO is currently progressing through the western Indian Ocean.

The important factor is what happens when (if) MJO hits the Australian region CFS has MJO stalling in the Indian Ocean which is favourable for ENSO cooling, but not great for Eastern Tropics rainfall. EC has a steady progression and slight weakening of MJO to reach Australian regions about 2 weeks time, the question then being does it progress into the West Pac for another WWB etc.

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