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#1448405 - 11/01/2018 21:46 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7348
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Read back a few Siera, the "Record" was against a closed dataset of years. NOT very clear, one had to read the fine print.

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#1448406 - 11/01/2018 21:47 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 689
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Can't have The looney lefties be right.

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#1448407 - 11/01/2018 21:50 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Petros]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7579
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: Petros
Read back a few Siera, the "Record" was against a closed dataset of years. NOT very clear, one had to read the fine print.

I was referring to the word universally. I quoted a section of your post based on that.

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#1448409 - 11/01/2018 21:57 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Seira]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7348
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Seira
Originally Posted By: Petros
Read back a few Siera, the "Record" was against a closed dataset of years. NOT very clear, one had to read the fine print.

I was referring to the word universally. I quoted a section of your post based on that.


OK, ta.

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#1448420 - 11/01/2018 23:22 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 689
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Clear many have politics over science. That's okay. I'll listen to the pros,

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#1448436 - 12/01/2018 09:30 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Dusty Rusty Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 30/01/2017
Posts: 13
Loc: Capricorn Region
So in January during a La Niņa year, we have drought like conditions along the Qld east coast, and rain & mudslides in California. Something seems backwards or very wrong indeed.

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#1448500 - 12/01/2018 18:56 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7348
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
...or our perceptions of what we expected for localized weather, under the current climatic conditions, is wrong.

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#1448568 - 13/01/2018 12:19 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Petros]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7579
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: Petros
...or our perceptions of what we expected for localized weather, under the current climatic conditions, is wrong.

Yes...I'd even go so far as to say our understanding is an issue.

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#1448578 - 13/01/2018 13:19 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Seira]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2604
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Seira
Originally Posted By: Petros
...or our perceptions of what we expected for localized weather, under the current climatic conditions, is wrong.

Yes...I'd even go so far as to say our understanding is an issue.


The problem is promulgated by the BoM and anors because they push the "average" as what we should expect, every day, week, month and year, whether it be temp or rain. If Dorothea McKellar can understand it in the 1900's; why are we still struggling in the 21st Century?

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#1448726 - 14/01/2018 11:42 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2137
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
My observations (from 2000) show that the three hottest years at Manilla were:
Rank 1: 2014 19.01°
Rank 2: 2009 18.85°
Rank 3: 2017 18.65°
https://climatebysurly.com/2018/01/03/december-2017-as-in-2016/

Mike Hauber says BoM figures for Australia show the three hottest to be 2013, 2005 and 2017. BoM published a table giving Australian area-averaged mean annual temperature anomalies and their ranks from 1988 here:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/2017/annual-summary-table.shtml
Rank 1: 2013 +1.20°
Rank 2: 2005 +1.03°
Rank 3: 2017 +0.95°

For global temperature, preliminary estimates using data to November give this ranking:
Rank 1: 2016
Rank 2: 2015
Rank 3: 2017
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2017/11/supplemental/page-1

The 1961-1990 base for determining what temperature is "normal" was selected a long time ago. It is planned to select a new base 1991-2020 when that becomes possible.
I have done a brief summary of "Climate Normals" as a note to this post:
https://climatebysurly.com/2017/05/28/when-is-the-first-frost/
_________________________
Data are cheap; information is expensive!

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#1448768 - 14/01/2018 16:37 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Kino]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7579
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Seira
Originally Posted By: Petros
...or our perceptions of what we expected for localized weather, under the current climatic conditions, is wrong.

Yes...I'd even go so far as to say our understanding is an issue.


The problem is promulgated by the BoM and anors because they push the "average" as what we should expect, every day, week, month and year, whether it be temp or rain. If Dorothea McKellar can understand it in the 1900's; why are we still struggling in the 21st Century?

I believe it can depend on whether one is asking for an opinion - one of millions - or whether one is after concrete research.


Edited by Seira (14/01/2018 16:45)

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#1448783 - 14/01/2018 17:55 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7348
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Anyhow, chewing through the data, formulating positions/prejudices et. al is surely better for us here than putting our attention into punting on the horses smile

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#1448917 - 15/01/2018 22:19 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Petros]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7579
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: Petros
Anyhow, chewing through the data, formulating positions/prejudices et. al is surely better for us here than putting our attention into punting on the horses smile

I put facts above all else, because I know they can be relied upon, and do not come and go based on popularity.

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#1449253 - 18/01/2018 21:12 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7348
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep agree, ....un-altered facts.

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#1449502 - 20/01/2018 23:34 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7579
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Admin and moderators, you have some serious coding glitches on this forum...and it's not the first time!

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#1449505 - 20/01/2018 23:46 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7579
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: Seira
Admin and moderators, you have some serious coding glitches on this forum...and it's not the first time!

This is not a criticism, but it does need to be sorted out.

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#1449611 - 21/01/2018 22:46 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Petros]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7579
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: Petros
Yep agree, ....un-altered facts.

If others on here wish to learn more about the weather and climate, learning is not achieved by restricting what we can learn.

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#1449620 - 22/01/2018 00:56 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Seira]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1895
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Seira
Originally Posted By: Petros
Anyhow, chewing through the data, formulating positions/prejudices et. al is surely better for us here than putting our attention into punting on the horses smile

I put facts above all else, because I know they can be relied upon, and do not come and go based on popularity.


What are "Facts" when it comes down to weather records though ?

As they were originally recorded, or as they were compiled,corrected,adjusted recompiled,compared,anomalies,data periods,reported ?

As noted above, third hottest year compared to what climate period ?, and I'd also add by what metric, down to the 100th or thousandths of a degree C ? Add a few stations here, subtract a few there from the records over the years, then adjust/compare/smooth/convert from F to C add a dash of lime and coconut for flavour, chuck it all into a blending algorithm with a touch of reactive modeling and Viola, a new headline sprouts forth.

Meanwhile B.O.M seem to be playing catch up with the actual weather as opposed to predicting it recently.

Not a popular opinion here I know, but given the last twelve months alone, even the last three months or last month even with the monsoon prediction that was changed within three day's of posting, one has to wonder what the millions spent by taxpayers on supercomputers are actually really achieving.

I read this thread daily, but refrain from posting my thoughts regularly out of due respect for those who have a much greater understanding and grasp for the mechanism's of weather than I do, and in an effort to not rock the boat or to release the Kraken of that which must not be spoken of, though that is exactly what is been discussed here, in a round about, mostly gentleman/woman,ly way.

Surely everyone here is aware of the Federation Drought, Birds falling from the sky due to the heat, the temperature records of the 30's-40's here and abroad, the never ending adjustments to such official records over the years, the obvious problems with current models that are reliant upon inputs based upon such records and the discrepancies that are occurring right now as a result.

Inconvenient real time empirical instrument data is now classified as defective instruments, an individual eyeballing satellite data is now recorded as accurate information until otherwise proven far past the event.

It seems that as time passes, more precise inaccurate records are leading to a more confused predictive/reactive outcome the more money is being spent.

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#1449641 - 22/01/2018 09:38 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: marakai]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 73
Loc: Peachester
"...those who have a much greater understanding and grasp for the mechanism's of weather than I do."

I put myself in the same boat - that there are many with a greater understanding than me. For that reason I choose to rely on their judgement about long-term patterns because their judgement is based on understanding wrung from peer-reviewed studies published in respected scientific journals.

As far as Observations of climate variation goes, I just hope the multi-year dry I am experiencing here is not going to turn into a decades long run a la SW WA.

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#1449734 - 22/01/2018 20:00 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: marakai]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7579
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: marakai
Originally Posted By: Seira
Originally Posted By: Petros
Anyhow, chewing through the data, formulating positions/prejudices et. al is surely better for us here than putting our attention into punting on the horses smile

I put facts above all else, because I know they can be relied upon, and do not come and go based on popularity.


What are "Facts" when it comes down to weather records though ?

I could convey what I understand about the 1st or 2nd law of thermodynamics, without judgement or being patronising, but then the listener has to be a willing listener.


Edited by Seira (22/01/2018 20:04)

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