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#1447857 - 07/01/2018 16:49 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 803
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Gone now.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2018]: 10mm (Ave 136mm)
Mar 2018: 679.9mm (avg 329.6mm)
YTD 2018 1787.3mm (Avg 1952.1mm)

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#1447947 - 08/01/2018 10:48 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 803
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Nothing on the models for 2 weeks
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2018]: 10mm (Ave 136mm)
Mar 2018: 679.9mm (avg 329.6mm)
YTD 2018 1787.3mm (Avg 1952.1mm)

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#1448360 - 11/01/2018 11:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4439
Loc: Brisbane
Finally, starting to see some action in the Coral Sea at the end of the most recent extended GFS runs.

Early days yet and will be interesting to see if it persists in coming days.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1448449 - 12/01/2018 11:23 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5221
Loc: Diamond Valley
Well, there's the making of a significant system still towards the end of the latest 18Z run. Something to watch at least even if it is a long way out. Extended GFS has been on the money before with its long term prognostications, but we don't want another Yasi or Debbie.
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The original donut hole

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#1448480 - 12/01/2018 16:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5157
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Latest GFS run....@ 384 for sure so way out in FI, but consistent between a couple of runs. Both runs also showed uppers that look like they would pull it towards the coast:



Long way off so these runs are no more than a flag that we could see some Coral Sea action coming up...if we follow the usual patterns sure we'll see it drop the idea then bring it back on board again a few times over the next week. For me the uppers seem to offer a greater chance of a crossing (and perhaps even a crossing further south) than I've seen for some time...but also aware that even close to events steering in the Coral Sea is a nightmare for most events so actually laughing at myself for bringing this into the discussion @ this time out (but doing it anyway wink )

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#1448573 - 13/01/2018 12:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Stormwithin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/12/2016
Posts: 149
According to Facebook page Brisbane weather, it'll hit with Armageddon force 😂

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#1448576 - 13/01/2018 13:03 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3279
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
CS is cooking with SST's primed, loaded & waiting for something like that to make it go BANG!

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#1448619 - 13/01/2018 16:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 803
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Gfs has had something near the end of the month in the coral for a few days now so its likeing the outcome just not sure where it will go....
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2018]: 10mm (Ave 136mm)
Mar 2018: 679.9mm (avg 329.6mm)
YTD 2018 1787.3mm (Avg 1952.1mm)

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#1448632 - 13/01/2018 17:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25253
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
more likely than not to probably move SE away and take any weather with from Qld. Prefer a widespread rain event but not likely by the looks
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
March 2018 total - 296mm (194mm)
April 2018 total - 12.4mm (66mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 794.4mm (1107mm)

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#1448640 - 13/01/2018 18:27 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 803
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Mike...not sure where you getting that from cos every run Ive seen pushes it sw towards the coast.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2018]: 10mm (Ave 136mm)
Mar 2018: 679.9mm (avg 329.6mm)
YTD 2018 1787.3mm (Avg 1952.1mm)

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#1448641 - 13/01/2018 18:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5072
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Mike is on the money. Firstly because that is the most common scenario. Secondly because with each new run of GFS the trend that is occurring is a trend towards the south and east of where it was the run before. But as others have said, there is zero point of paying attention to any details this far out. It is just worth noting that there is likely to be enhanced activity around that time

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#1448674 - 13/01/2018 21:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 803
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
I am feeling optimistic....not stupid. I know its too far out. But i can dream lol

Each run has the low track everywhere...the path is unreliable but so far the model is holding on to something spinning up deffo worth keeping my eye on. This may not be the rain bringer but its a opportunity to maybe bring some.


Edited by rainthisway (13/01/2018 21:22)
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2018]: 10mm (Ave 136mm)
Mar 2018: 679.9mm (avg 329.6mm)
YTD 2018 1787.3mm (Avg 1952.1mm)

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#1448697 - 14/01/2018 07:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 803
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Latest run on weatherzone at least hasnt moved it further from the coast
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2018]: 10mm (Ave 136mm)
Mar 2018: 679.9mm (avg 329.6mm)
YTD 2018 1787.3mm (Avg 1952.1mm)

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#1448699 - 14/01/2018 08:01 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5072
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
I am feeling optimistic....not stupid. I know its too far out. But i can dream lol

Each run has the low track everywhere...the path is unreliable but so far the model is holding on to something spinning up deffo worth keeping my eye on. This may not be the rain bringer but its a opportunity to maybe bring some.


I am with you on the optimism. I dearly hope GFS is on the money but at this point I will take a big rain event. And I will lose my crap if a big system forms and takes the weather away with it.
Although having said what I just said I am not sure a 945 right into Cairns would be all that great. Even a 980 would trash Cairns


Edited by Brett Guy (14/01/2018 08:06)

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#1448710 - 14/01/2018 09:25 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 803
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Ideally for us down here a crossing near cardwell or ingham work work best.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2018]: 10mm (Ave 136mm)
Mar 2018: 679.9mm (avg 329.6mm)
YTD 2018 1787.3mm (Avg 1952.1mm)

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#1448717 - 14/01/2018 10:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4439
Loc: Brisbane
And the latest GFS run flip flops again in terms of likely track but steadfastly holds onto formation of a system.

There has been zero consistency on tracking for the past 8 runs on GFS but almost every run has seen the formation of a system in the Coral Sea.

This will get within the EC 10 day forecast window soon so it will be interesting to see what it has to say.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1448724 - 14/01/2018 11:30 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1140
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
Just wait until the media pick this up, all the Armageddon headlines will start!

Still a long way out, but GFS has been consistent with something popping up out there. I'll start paying attention when EC start showing it as well as GFS. From memory they did well during Debbie. Although my memory is rubbish I could be wrong there...
_________________________
Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

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#1448727 - 14/01/2018 11:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 803
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Ec and gfs have been pretty good of late but the track is bouncing everywhere. Last one I saw had a crossing near cairns. Next weekend should give us a clearer idea but I think its safe to say something will happen...but where...who knows. Bom has what looks like the beginnings of a low on there last model for 23rd. Which lines up with gfs. Havent checked ec yet, nothing on ec and latest gfs has Mikes scenerio happening but still I expect that to change just like its change every run.

Someone give the media a tip lol wind them up and watch them go.

If the media says its gonna be end of days it will be a flop, if they say little....watch out qld.


Edited by rainthisway (14/01/2018 11:50)
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2018]: 10mm (Ave 136mm)
Mar 2018: 679.9mm (avg 329.6mm)
YTD 2018 1787.3mm (Avg 1952.1mm)

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#1448742 - 14/01/2018 13:36 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25253
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
media already onto, seen it on Mackay and Sunshine Coast paper fb sites already. just way too early to jump up and down, still remember the numpty from Ch9 weather plugging Yasi two weeks out, showing the world hitting Fraser island as a cat5. stupid.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
March 2018 total - 296mm (194mm)
April 2018 total - 12.4mm (66mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 794.4mm (1107mm)

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#1448747 - 14/01/2018 14:01 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mick10]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6940
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mick10
media already onto, seen it on Mackay and Sunshine Coast paper fb sites already. just way too early to jump up and down, still remember the numpty from Ch9 weather plugging Yasi two weeks out, showing the world hitting Fraser island as a cat5. stupid.


Was that Gary Youngberry?

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