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#1448752 - 14/01/2018 14:36 a warm to hot week with slight potential for rain storms at the end 14/1-21/1
liberator Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2010
Posts: 309
Loc: Kyabram
Mild to warm starting off this week leading up to some significant heat towards the end of the working week. Potential for rain/thunderstorms at the end of the week. North of the divid quite warm to damn hot AGAIN. South of the divide a little milder but chances of getting the heat as well by the end of the week.I picked the right time to get my rc ac installed. Too old and too soft to suffer any more.

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#1448785 - 14/01/2018 18:18 Re: a warm to hot week with slight potential for rain storms at the end 14/1-21/1 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5980
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Yeah looks like summer is about to return with a vengeance across Victoria this coming week. Just one more cold front to come tomorrow, which will temporarily re-enforce the polar air behind what's already been the first potentially major winter storm for 2018!

We should see a few showers with tomorrow's frontal passage, mostly along and south of the Great Dividing Range, which will clear towards Gippsland as the day progresses. Conditions will be drier and warmer over the northern half of the State.

Then high pressure muscles into Southeastern Australia and takes control of the weather, with a spell of mild to warm, dry weather that eventually leads to a potentially dangerous heatwave by late-week! Thank goodness for the recent rain to help hold back the bushfire risk for a while longer. frown

Forecast tops of 21C, 27C, 31C, 38C and 37C for Melbourne, and 31C, 33C, 39C, 42C and 43C for Mildura, Monday-Friday inclusive! eek

By next weekend a trough should arrive from the north, bringing with it a humid, unstable northerly airflow followed by milder southerlies; associated cloud cover should cap the temperatures a fair bit, and hopefully showers and thunderstorms will develop. smile

I'm likely to be heading out on a day trip with friends from Melbourne to Echuca/Moama next Saturday. By that time the temperature should be around 32-35C, and hopefully some great storms will flare across the vast open Northern Plains and over the Murray River into the NSW Riverina! smile


Edited by aussiestormfreak (14/01/2018 18:21)

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#1448791 - 14/01/2018 18:56 Re: a warm to hot week with slight potential for rain storms at the end 14/1-21/1 [Re: liberator]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6795
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep. The end of the week looks interesting in terms of the chance of humid air over Vic. Here's GFS's (out there) guess:


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#1448877 - 15/01/2018 16:38 Re: a warm to hot week with slight potential for rain storms at the end 14/1-21/1 [Re: liberator]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1137
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Looking very hot back at home Thursday/Friday!!
Talk about up and down weather lol
Hopefully get follow up rain after this next
Heat event, otherwise the good rain we just
Received will be very short lived.

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#1448899 - 15/01/2018 18:48 Re: a warm to hot week with slight potential for rain storms at the end 14/1-21/1 [Re: liberator]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6795
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Going by GFS, it's a fair chance on latest run, for enough mid/upper level moisture to be advected in from the West ahead of the weekend change to allow the possibility of storms. At this stage not to the extent we saw in central/E Vic over the last weekend. ....something to watch though.

Could see high electricity prices for Vic into this Friday, ....unless a couple of brown coal generators can make it back on-line prior to then.

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#1448918 - 15/01/2018 22:31 Re: a warm to hot week with slight potential for rain storms at the end 14/1-21/1 [Re: liberator]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2414
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Oh Heat days

TUES 31C
WED 35c
THURS 41C
FRI 43C
SAT 33cC
SUN 35C

Northern Country will have warm nights until late next Tuesday morning south breeze.

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#1448976 - 16/01/2018 12:55 Re: a warm to hot week with slight potential for rain storms at the end 14/1-21/1 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5980
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 10.6C, currently around 22C and sunny with a cooling southeasterly breeze! Gloriously fine, mild to warm summer weather, perfect for being outside! grin

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#1449018 - 16/01/2018 20:59 Re: a warm to hot week with slight potential for rain storms at the end 14/1-21/1 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5980
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a top of 27.6C here in Belgrave today, with only a bit of high cloud in the sky today (mostly late-afternoon and evening). Otherwise a pleasing warm sunny mid-summer's day with a pleasant breeze. smile

Currently around 19C.

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#1449089 - 17/01/2018 12:10 Re: a warm to hot week with slight potential for rain storms at the end 14/1-21/1 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5980
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 9.4C, currently around 24C and mostly sunny, with just a bit of high cloud, mainly towards the north. smile

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#1449112 - 17/01/2018 17:13 Re: a warm to hot week with slight potential for rain storms at the end 14/1-21/1 [Re: liberator]
Blackacubra Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/04/2004
Posts: 775
Loc: Sunraysia, Victoria
Had a top of 37.4, that I know off, here in Red Cliffs today. 37 was predicted.

Predicted for the next 6 days:
THURS 42
FRI 44
SAT 43
SUN 43
MON 37
TUE 35

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#1449116 - 17/01/2018 17:53 Re: a warm to hot week with slight potential for rain storms at the end 14/1-21/1 [Re: liberator]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 697
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Keep cool, Blackacubra. Keep cool. Much cooler down here - Friday the only day progged to reach 40C.

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#1449123 - 17/01/2018 18:50 Re: a warm to hot week with slight potential for rain storms at the end 14/1-21/1 [Re: liberator]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6795
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Around 28C down here today, with light easterly during the arvo, great golf weather (not that I did it any justice).

Regarding the power system for next 2 days, - all Vic brown coal generators are online as I type, but despite this, with the closure of Hazelwood Power Station, ...Victoria needs imported power from other states to support us through both afternoon peak periods. Means high wholesale prices, ....which in turn reflect on higher power bills for all of us due to increasing futures pricing for the electrical power retailers, which will reflect in upped power bills for us later this year. The increased power costs we will notice on our next bills (now to March), will be due to the rolling off of hedged prices for the retailers (typically contracts for price, ..up to 2 years ahead), that now need to be re-contracted in the new (post Hazelwood shutdown) wholesale world.

If you have an Iphone, download the "PocketNEM" app - we can all be experts.

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#1449240 - 18/01/2018 19:03 Re: a warm to hot week with slight potential for rain storms at the end 14/1-21/1 [Re: liberator]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6795
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
38.9C on my gauge here today.

Super-high afternoon electricity wholesale prices for Vic and SA.

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#1449242 - 18/01/2018 19:23 Re: a warm to hot week with slight potential for rain storms at the end 14/1-21/1 [Re: liberator]
Blackacubra Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/04/2004
Posts: 775
Loc: Sunraysia, Victoria
Well, that's one day of 42, out the way. Still 41 here, on the front verandah.

Predicted for the next 6 days:
FRI 45
SAT 44
SUN 43
MON 38
TUE 36
WED 38

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#1449247 - 18/01/2018 20:19 Re: a warm to hot week with slight potential for rain storms at the end 14/1-21/1 [Re: liberator]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6267
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
36.3c for a high here, 30.6c atm
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1449303 - 19/01/2018 10:29 Re: a warm to hot week with slight potential for rain storms at the end 14/1-21/1 [Re: liberator]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 983
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Happy to be back home in Portland again for a week (after a disastrous train ride home - yes I was on the train with the broken aircon suck at Lara at 6 yesterday) where its only going to be 28 today.

Some very high temps out there already with the Mallee already in the high 30s and Melbourne in the mid 30's. Going to be a hot one!
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1449310 - 19/01/2018 11:26 Re: a warm to hot week with slight potential for rain storms at the end 14/1-21/1 [Re: liberator]
vjknight Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2012
Posts: 192
Loc: AscotVale, Inner NW Melb
been watching the progress of the wind change all morning. moving thru the surf coast right now, so hoping for the significant cool down a few hours earlier than originally mentioned.

it appears the city folk wont get to see the 42c promised.

yay.

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#1449318 - 19/01/2018 12:02 Re: a warm to hot week with slight potential for rain storms at the end 14/1-21/1 [Re: liberator]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5980
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My post for the past couple of days from here in Belgrave...

It reached a top of 36.1C on Wednesday afternoon.

And as for yesterday and today...

Yesterday it ranged between 16.7C in the morning to 41.5C in the afternoon (my hottest day so far this season); conditions felt very unpleasant while I was in Gembrook and Menzies Creek. I find this sort of weather can give me bad headaches. frown

It was a very hot evening while I was down in Dandenong (between 7pm and 11pm). And by the time I came home it was around 31C. At midnight it was 30C. And at 1am it was a little cooler but still very warm, around 28C.

For a brief while last night after I came home it looked like it was going to tie with February 9th 2014 as my hottest night on record (30.7C). Once I realised that wasn't going to be the case I then thought it might at least turn into my hottest January night over, beating the 27.7C record set on January 3rd 2015.

In the end it dipped to 25.8C last night, my hottest night for the 2017/2018 Warm Season and my first 25C+ night since February 9th last year when it dropped to 26.9C.

Outside it's heating up really quickly, currently around 36C. Looks like we'll easily soar into the early 40s again. I'll be glad when the cool change arrives in Melbourne this afternoon/evening.

In short it's a very hot, dry, windy, mostly sunny period. This is the type of weather that can fan dangerous bushfires, and I'm thoroughly sick of it! We need more heavy soaking rain. frown mad


Edited by aussiestormfreak (19/01/2018 12:09)

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#1449320 - 19/01/2018 12:14 Re: a warm to hot week with slight potential for rain storms at the end 14/1-21/1 [Re: liberator]
Blackacubra Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/04/2004
Posts: 775
Loc: Sunraysia, Victoria
It's 40 degrees, before Midday. Here comes a really hot one.


Edited by Blackacubra (19/01/2018 12:19)

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#1449321 - 19/01/2018 12:15 Re: a warm to hot week with slight potential for rain storms at the end 14/1-21/1 [Re: vjknight]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 983
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: vjknight
been watching the progress of the wind change all morning. moving thru the surf coast right now, so hoping for the significant cool down a few hours earlier than originally mentioned.

it appears the city folk wont get to see the 42c promised.

yay.


Wind change is very slow




Edited by logansi (19/01/2018 12:15)
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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