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#1449102 - 17/01/2018 15:56 NSW/ACT Heatwave burst Jan 18-23 2018
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1057
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Looks like the surprising and pleasantly mild weather this week, is coming to an abrupt end tomorrow:

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/prolonged-heatwave-on-the-horizon/527378

Places like Penrith going for 42C on 3 out of the 5 days.
Lower Hunter into the low 40s Sun-Mon, Tocal as high as 44C on Monday.
Places in the NW of the state getting as high as 46C.
Easily a heatwave burst by most definitions, the coast will be spared the full brunt of this event by the looks of it.

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#1449103 - 17/01/2018 16:00 Re: NSW/ACT Heatwave burst Jan 18-23 2018 [Re: DerekHV]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2779
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
The annual family camping trip on the River Murray in full swing, possibly going to be out hottest trip yet. In Swan Hill this year. cool


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#1449105 - 17/01/2018 16:11 Re: NSW/ACT Heatwave burst Jan 18-23 2018 [Re: DerekHV]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10095
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Could be warm indeed CS22 smile Enjoy smile

Our forecast temps have been increased for the weekend by a degree.

Surely will be warm.

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#1449107 - 17/01/2018 16:24 Re: NSW/ACT Heatwave burst Jan 18-23 2018 [Re: DerekHV]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1057
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Forecasts just upgraded in the last 10 minutes.
Penrith and Richmond all going for 4 days in a row over 40C, Singo going up to 44C for Monday as well, 43C in Maitland and Cessnock.

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#1449108 - 17/01/2018 16:26 Re: NSW/ACT Heatwave burst Jan 18-23 2018 [Re: DerekHV]
Thundersnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/06/2007
Posts: 216
Loc: Tamworth, NSW 440m
Noticed Tibooburra currently sitting on 38.4 with RH at 2%. Dew point is -19 (!) Is a dewpoint so far in the negative uncommon?

Tamworth forecast for 5+ days of 40 or higher. Right on schedule for the CM festival, too.

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#1449110 - 17/01/2018 16:37 Re: NSW/ACT Heatwave burst Jan 18-23 2018 [Re: DerekHV]
Homer Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5619
Loc: Dural
Penrith and Richmond now going for 4 consecutive days over 40. Yuk.

Interestingly, the diurnal range will be quite large at 25 and 26 deg's for Friday/Saturday, due largely in part to the cooler overnight minimums of late.
That changes on Sunday/Monday when the diurnal range drops back to 21 deg's. Still quite decent.
So, two more nights of decent sleeping conditions until we are back into above 20 degree minimums - above the sleep comfort zone.
The past 4 days/nights have been bliss for January.


Edited by Homer (17/01/2018 16:38)

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#1449115 - 17/01/2018 17:47 Re: NSW/ACT Heatwave burst Jan 18-23 2018 [Re: DerekHV]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Hope Blair has plenty of truth serum on hand for his co workers before they run their mouths and tweets off to the ignorant media about non record records
_________________________
If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1449120 - 17/01/2018 18:34 Re: NSW/ACT Heatwave burst Jan 18-23 2018 [Re: DerekHV]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4669
After this cold snap wink poke I'm looking forward to this slight warmth. Hopefully it goes deep into next week.

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#1449126 - 17/01/2018 19:20 Re: NSW/ACT Heatwave burst Jan 18-23 2018 [Re: Knot]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1057
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: Knot
Hope Blair has plenty of truth serum on hand for his co workers before they run their mouths and tweets off to the ignorant media about non record records


That will be interesting, I don't think any records are under threat, possibly days in a row over 40C maybe?
Places like Scone have 2 days in a row of 44C forecast.
The old Richmond RAAF record of 47.8C in Jan 1939, which is the real target, I doubt will be challenged. (Penrith was oh so close earlier in the month though)


Edited by DerekHV (17/01/2018 19:24)

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#1449131 - 17/01/2018 20:04 Re: NSW/ACT Heatwave burst Jan 18-23 2018 [Re: DerekHV]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4035
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Even the forecast of four consecutive days of 31+ for OH is 'courageous', given that's pretty uncommon there. Given the weak general Northerly circulation with little or no offshore component except on Monday, I think OH would struggle to reach the forecast on Friday or the weekend.

Penrith can look forward to five consecutive 38C (100F) days from tomorrow according to the forecast, Parramatta four days of 37+.

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#1449140 - 17/01/2018 21:05 Re: NSW/ACT Heatwave burst Jan 18-23 2018 [Re: DerekHV]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1935
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
With you there EddyG. Four days of that southerly gale is quite enough. The whole house was covered in a fine dust. Spent the afternoon mopping the floors.

Mr Creed was mentioning records tonight. Specifically, the count of days over 40 in a season will be broken in Richmond. A record set last season.

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#1449144 - 17/01/2018 22:04 Re: NSW/ACT Heatwave burst Jan 18-23 2018 [Re: DerekHV]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4669
With a bit of luck we should some thunderstorms too.

Nice little setup you have CS22, I take it the esky is under the tree? smile

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#1449150 - 18/01/2018 07:19 Re: NSW/ACT Heatwave burst Jan 18-23 2018 [Re: DerekHV]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 221
I think the consistent high temps with this event if come off as forecast are quite significant. Katoomba with 5 days straight of 30C+ is crazy! Iím not sure if thatís a record but canít imagine itís far off. Plus this will see Penrith and Richmond record 10+ days above 40C for the summer, absolute madness if you ask me. Imagine if we reversed the situation and were setting cold records like this.

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#1449168 - 18/01/2018 09:36 Re: NSW/ACT Heatwave burst Jan 18-23 2018 [Re: DerekHV]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10095
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
The coming period is going to be a bit rough for us less than excited about heat. smile

I also think it's basically a 10 day to 2 week burst of well above average heat, certainly out here.

Such a long period of above average (even if not extreme) is not common in this area.

However I'm seeing indications of a fairly large cold change about Feb 1st.

It appears it could have the size to impact on the heat line for a number of days. Possibly rather like the previous week.

Hopefully not just wishful thinking on my part smile

This morning at around 8 or 9 was lovely but sadly the last proper cool morning - has been nice though. smile

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#1449170 - 18/01/2018 09:49 Re: NSW/ACT Heatwave burst Jan 18-23 2018 [Re: kizz]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Originally Posted By: kizz


Mr Creed was mentioning records tonight. Specifically, the count of days over 40 in a season will be broken in Richmond. A record set last season.


Wasn't he a boxer or something he he he.

Coming at ya from the beautiful shores of the northwest corner of Lake Macquarie. If the seabreeze doesn't push much inland it will be pretty damn hot for awhile on this side of the lake. Have to top 43.7 from 1942 at Rathmines ww2 site just up the road to set a record for Newcastle area.


Edited by Knot (18/01/2018 09:59)
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#1449172 - 18/01/2018 09:52 Re: NSW/ACT Heatwave burst Jan 18-23 2018 [Re: DerekHV]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3770
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
If Penrith and Richmond get four 40s (possible, but far from certain), both sites will equal their record (set last summer) for most 40s in a summer. Penrith has not previously had four consecutive 40s, Richmond has had it once.

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#1449179 - 18/01/2018 10:29 Re: NSW/ACT Heatwave burst Jan 18-23 2018 [Re: Blair Trewin]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 221
Any ideas whether Katoomba has ever recorded 5 days of 30C+ Blair?

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#1449180 - 18/01/2018 10:43 Re: NSW/ACT Heatwave burst Jan 18-23 2018 [Re: DerekHV]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 221
This run of heat also looks to be very significant in areas such as Orange. I guess being further from the coast itís more likely to see a continued hot spell than say Katoomba but gosh these temps are rough. I find the heat in the elevated regions like Katoomba, Oberon, Orange and the like to be of more interest as there is less room for the effects of mind boggling stupid developments to impact on temps (I believe Richmond was always a hotter place than Penrith but itís the development around Penrith that has seen it become the hottest spot) and because there are ecological niches already on the margins in these areas, the sub alpine woodland on Cannobolas and around Oberon, the cool temperate rainforest in the valleys around Katoomba. All these environments will surely suffer under continued summer extremes like this. A really key indicator of how much the climate is changing.

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#1449186 - 18/01/2018 11:12 Re: NSW/ACT Heatwave burst Jan 18-23 2018 [Re: DerekHV]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4035
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
This event will mainly be an 'inland' event, although 'inland' in this context seems to start around Strathfield (e.g. four consecutive 35+ forecast for sydney Olympic Park from tomorrow). It does look like a very significant event for the Tablelands, in terms of both intensity and duration.

-----

Just something for the heat haters: I note that OH has had five consecutive below average minina. That's pretty unusual these days at any time of year. The same would probably have applied to coastal and tableland areas in Central-SE NSW. There's one more cool night to go.

----

GFS does seem to be showing a major break in the current pattern towards the end of its run to a cooler, wetter regime. But it's early days yet. Still, my gut feeling is it will end in a 'Monsoon' like last Summer (late Feb in the case).


Edited by Steve777 (18/01/2018 11:14)
Edit Reason: last para

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#1449188 - 18/01/2018 11:22 Re: NSW/ACT Heatwave burst Jan 18-23 2018 [Re: DerekHV]
rain gauge Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/02/2006
Posts: 4516
Loc: Gorokan NSW 4klm West of the ...
At the end of the day it will be damn hot
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