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#1448966 - 16/01/2018 11:51 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Homer]
Morham Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2017
Posts: 104
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Originally Posted By: Homer
Latest forecast has eased off ever so slightly for the Penrith maximum temperatures. Only a degree or so, but geez, it still looks like being a prolonged spell of heat.

I'll take every degree i can!!

Feels extremely cool and windy today which is fantastic.

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#1448971 - 16/01/2018 12:23 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10132
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Penrith is certainly too warm for me to enjoy.

Fingers crossed it's not as extreme a peak this time for you.

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#1448978 - 16/01/2018 13:13 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Rob G Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/07/2003
Posts: 712
Loc: Porters Retreat NSW
If you thought it's been extraordinarily dry in Sydney and surrounds lately, you'd be right. Stats show that Sydney is on track for its 3rd driest July - Jan period over a period of 160 years. Only 208mm has fallen so far (no rain observations were recorded on October the 9th and 12th 2017, but it is unlikely there would have been more than a few mm).

The only drier comparable periods were July 1907 to Jan 1908 with 179.4mm, and July 2002 to Jan 2003 with 192mm. This event could be considered the worst due to persistently elevated temperatures. I noticed when in Sydney over the holiday a number of dead trees: doubtless victims of this drought.

Further west in our area, and 1.2km higher than Sydney, 38mm of rain over the last week and cooler weather has saved the pasture and garden from the worst. The turnaround has been pretty impressive. However the prospect of heat persisting until the long weekend will put us in a worse situation than we were in on January 7th. Only bright spot is cooler unsettled conditions on the models from around 26th on.

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#1448981 - 16/01/2018 13:27 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Rob G]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 364
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Originally Posted By: Rob G
If you thought it's been extraordinarily dry in Sydney and surrounds lately, you'd be right. Stats show that Sydney is on track for its 3rd driest July - Jan period over a period of 160 years. Only 208mm has fallen so far (no rain observations were recorded on October the 9th and 12th 2017, but it is unlikely there would have been more than a few mm).

The only drier comparable periods were July 1907 to Jan 1908 with 179.4mm, and July 2002 to Jan 2003 with 192mm. This event could be considered the worst due to persistently elevated temperatures. I noticed when in Sydney over the holiday a number of dead trees: doubtless victims of this drought.


Further west in our area, and 1.2km higher than Sydney, 38mm of rain over the last week and cooler weather has saved the pasture and garden from the worst. The turnaround has been pretty impressive. However the prospect of heat persisting until the long weekend will put us in a worse situation than we were in on January 7th. Only bright spot is cooler unsettled conditions on the models from around 26th on.

It's even worse in my area where the nearest observation sites are Holsworthy and Bankstown (I live equidistant to them) each received 153.2mm and 139.6mm respectively. I am really lucky there has been some rain lately otherwise bushfires would be a huge risk.

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#1448995 - 16/01/2018 16:55 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5855
Loc: Dural
I've been very surprised at the consistency of the strong winds from this Tasman low. It's been 3 days now and even overnight, there were gusts in the 80-107 km/h range around the metro region.
It's been very consistent. At least it has been a brief respite in between extremes of heat.

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#1448996 - 16/01/2018 17:15 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1990
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
I'd prefer the heat to this wind tunnel. Amazing to watch some of the massive eucalypts in this wind. You would swear on your life they will tip over in some of the gusts. My front and back lawn is covered with shredded leaves and other vegetation. Not even sure where some of the leaves come from. Certainly not mine or the neighbours.

I was mucking around with the Obs Hill data for rain the other day and the 183 day accumulation has been in or near the driest 1% for ANY time period. Been like this for over a month now. Pretty significant for records that go back to 1858.

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#1448997 - 16/01/2018 17:35 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4953
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Yeah that Tasman low has produced some impressive swell, if you can get to a beach to have a look, do yourself a favour its certainly worth looking at.
No doubt there will be lots of coastline with major sand erosion!!

Jimmy's beach has some major erosion, I wouldn't be surprised if the road is in the bay by tomorrow morning.
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD - 12.4mm
YTD - 813.5mm
https://www.instagram.com/eddygroot/

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#1449000 - 16/01/2018 18:09 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Perfect Storm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 950
Loc: Carramar, Sydney, NSW
GFS last couple of runs has been showing some significant (compared to last couple of months) precipitation next week after the intense heat. Access G latest run coming on board too for some more notable rain.

ECMWF showing some general rain throughout (1-5 or so mm) but nothing major at this stage.

Will be one to watch with my fingers and toes crossed towards a wetter signal.
_________________________
If life was a synoptic map it would probably be full of highs and lows.

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#1449008 - 16/01/2018 19:26 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 244
I don’t live there anymore (thankfully) but was wondering about this upcoming hot spell. Specifically, Katoomba is forecast to 30C or above for 5 days straight. This would have to be in record territory I would think? Anyone got any thoughts?

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#1449015 - 16/01/2018 20:52 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4953
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Jimmy's Beach
IMG_2538 by Eddy Groot, on Flickr

Waves as far as the eye can see!!
IMG_2541 by Eddy Groot, on Flickr
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD - 12.4mm
YTD - 813.5mm
https://www.instagram.com/eddygroot/

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#1449024 - 16/01/2018 22:16 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4226
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Right, we've all had a chance to cool down, that Southerly can go away now.

Actually, it's here for another day, slowly moderating. It was pretty gloomy at lunch time today, windy, overcast, 19 degrees but feeling like 15, looking like it was about to rain. In any case, no rain came and it soon cleared up to a fairly sunny afternoon, but still cool in the wind.

It's now a cool, windy, starry night with blowing patches of low cloud.

-------

It still looks like a warm week coming up, not quite as hot as it looked a couple of days ago, with not much heat reaching the coast. Towards the end of next week, GFS seems to be showing a wetter, Easterly pattern, more typical of late Summer. Although it has been showing this at the end of its run for a while now, I think it means it this time, given the BOM's outlook, the weak La Niña and that it will be nearly February by then.

EDIT: Eddy - that sand is really encroaching on the road there. Just looked at Jimmy's Beach in Google. It faces South. Anyone walking or driving along that road in the wind must have risked being sand blasted.


Edited by Steve777 (16/01/2018 22:26)

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#1449063 - 17/01/2018 09:22 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Steve777]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4953
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: Steve777

Eddy - that sand is really encroaching on the road there. Just looked at Jimmy's Beach in Google. It faces South. Anyone walking or driving along that road in the wind must have risked being sand blasted.


I'm about to go and have a look at Jimmy's, its nearing high tide. And yeah it stings being sand blasted as I experienced that feeling the other day grin

Have a look at that video I posted above, that was taken at Jimmy's Beach, you can hear the sand hitting the car!!
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD - 12.4mm
YTD - 813.5mm
https://www.instagram.com/eddygroot/

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#1449077 - 17/01/2018 10:41 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1576
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Extended 18z run of GFS has the best looking rain event I have seen in a long time.
There does look to be some decent stormy conditions starting Tuesday Wednesday next week, but the scenario I have mentioned before and have been waiting for has been thrown into the mix 14 days out...that is a cyclone forming in the GOC and travelling south as a landfoon through NSW. Its just one run, but I need runs like that to keep me sane. Between now and then we have to continue with the evil that is.

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#1449090 - 17/01/2018 12:32 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: GringosRain]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 364
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
Extended 18z run of GFS has the best looking rain event I have seen in a long time.
There does look to be some decent stormy conditions starting Tuesday Wednesday next week, but the scenario I have mentioned before and have been waiting for has been thrown into the mix 14 days out...that is a cyclone forming in the GOC and travelling south as a landfoon through NSW. Its just one run, but I need runs like that to keep me sane. Between now and then we have to continue with the evil that is.

It will certainly be a drought breaker if it comes off, but i'm worried that the EC model might not show that much interest.

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#1449091 - 17/01/2018 13:55 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Stormy3 Online   happy
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1719
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
GringosRain,I hope your excitement in the future models pays off,but I am trying to get you's to everything slowly burning up and drying up,that looks to what is happening around here at the moment.


Edited by Stormy3 (17/01/2018 13:58)
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Click here for Ellalong live weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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#1449095 - 17/01/2018 15:06 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4953
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
I hope it comes off for you GR!!

Here are a couple of pics from this morning and I promise I wont bore you with my photos for a while.

IMG_2565 by Eddy Groot, on Flickr

IMG_2582 by Eddy Groot, on Flickr
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD - 12.4mm
YTD - 813.5mm
https://www.instagram.com/eddygroot/

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#1449096 - 17/01/2018 15:18 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6877
Great pics Eddy, that erosion sure is bad.

Well it is a fantastic day here, 25 and low humidity. There's also not a cloud in the sky.


Edited by Wave Rider (17/01/2018 15:19)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1449100 - 17/01/2018 15:41 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5855
Loc: Dural
Eddy, your photos never bore us
Keep 'em coming.

Yes WR, it is a lovely day today. Unfortunately, the last for a while for us in western parts of the metro.

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#1449104 - 17/01/2018 16:10 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10132
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Naaaahh I hate his photos - always rubbish!!!! grin

He does ok with his box brownie.

That road under a bit of threat Eddy!!

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#1449109 - 17/01/2018 16:35 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4226
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Yes Eddy - keep the photos coming.

---

A beautiful sunny day here, still a bit cool in the wind, although maxima across Sydney were close to normal after a cool night: OH 17-26, Penrith 16-30. Olympic Park was a bit cool, just reaching 24.9 c.f. Bankstown 27.5. That's a bit odd - maybe the site is particularly exposed to the Southerly.

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