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#1449603 - 21/01/2018 21:52 VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6338
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Hi all,

Current thread has expired, looks like being hot north of the divide without break though perhaps a slight moderation Tuesday or even into Wednesday. The hot air overspreads most parts particularly by the weekend. Interestingly, looks to be a bit of moisture with this lot, certainly over eastern parts and possibly more widespread depending on your model. Certainly the northerly will remain unbroken well inland which may allow moisture from the far north to make its way down.

I have made thread till Wednesday next week,so Blackie has somewhere to vent poke and as as there is some model spread around the timing of the next real change and the nature of that (as in decent rain). The time frame should capture this next instalment of weather and allow us time to discuss as models figure it out and post obs in the meantime.
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1449621 - 22/01/2018 01:05 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
logansi Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1086
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Unlikely to go this high but the current ACCESS G run is spitting out temps as high as 47C on Saturday in the Mallee.....
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1449627 - 22/01/2018 07:41 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks for the thread ruckle👍

Looked at gfs this morning (back up what
Logansi has said above) it looks potentially
Really really hot from Friday through to
Monday, but sat and Sunday could be
Exceptional!!

Bom heatwave charts have us in severe
Heatwave from Thursday through the
Weekend

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#1449633 - 22/01/2018 08:48 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6338
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
12z run of GFS and EC have sped up the cool change but lessened the rain/storm activity, even in the east.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1449637 - 22/01/2018 09:10 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Woken by an hour of mid-distance thunder and lightning about 4am. Only a trace of rain.

Others will interpret better than me ... but I think scenarios for next Fri-Mon are still very dynamic. May have potential for significant event esp re sustained temp; moisture progs are varying; wind not extreme but if the front (which I can't properly pick) speeds up, a steeper gradient might form. Interesting to watch over next few days.

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#1449672 - 22/01/2018 13:28 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
liberator Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2010
Posts: 316
Loc: Kyabram
Thanks Ruckle - good to see we're now considering to post these heat events along with rain/thunderstorm events so we can all post back what we are observing. Never been a summer fan here - give me the winter any day so I'm suffering this heat big time being up north of the divide. I look at the weather radar and feel envious of the milder weather down south. Craving a good thunderstorm even with the humidity it brings.
Fingers crossed but as noted another hot week NOD and for the weekend coming up - I get less motivated to do things about the house when it's like this.

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#1449678 - 22/01/2018 14:14 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2060
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Lightning strikes just now N/E of Dargo, radar shows busy cell passing to the E.

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#1449681 - 22/01/2018 15:00 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Logansi, I can hear it rumbling away to my north though I don't have a few of it.

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#1449683 - 22/01/2018 15:05 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: ThunderBob]
logansi Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1086
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: ThunderBob
Logansi, I can hear it rumbling away to my north though I don't have a few of it.


Lets hope no new fires - air resources are very stretched atm
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#1449684 - 22/01/2018 15:11 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
That should be of course " I don't have a view of it."

Yes, agreed. The next few days are likely to continue doing this sort of thing. I'm still not convinced the weekend won'yt be dangerous - we certainly don't want a dozen or more established fires in the mountains at that point.

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#1449688 - 22/01/2018 15:33 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah it's an interesting little period coming
Up!! Potentially dangerous fire wise!

Tb - do u know if those storms north
Of u contain much rain? Or are they
Pretty dry with lightning?

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#1449690 - 22/01/2018 15:41 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
I don't get a clear view to my north ...so I can only go on what you can see too - the radar shows only small patches of "precip" moving quite fast. So I don't think there'll be significant rainfall from it - to all extents, dry.

Still rumbling away.

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#1449693 - 22/01/2018 15:59 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks tb 👍

Looks fairly stormy over the next few days
Out east according to the models, just
Have to hope they develop some juice with
Them

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#1449695 - 22/01/2018 16:12 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Gfs has updated and is showing
Some good storm/rain activity for
The eastern part of state from Thursday
To Saturday.
Wether it happens or not is another thing? Lol

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#1449696 - 22/01/2018 16:39 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: doogasnow]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Gfs has updated and is showing
Some good storm/rain activity for
The eastern part of state from Thursday
To Saturday.
Wether it happens or not is another thing? Lol


And the just-issued BoM forecasts reflect that - will be relatively-speaking humid and some showers and storms but nothing significant offered on the forecasts before Monday. Many places will have double-days of 38C, or 39c or 40C+ and, on the Murray, even more.

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#1449700 - 22/01/2018 17:05 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
Blackacubra Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/04/2004
Posts: 775
Loc: Sunraysia, Victoria
So much for a temp of 37 today. I noticed 38.4 here, but they just said 39 was the top, on the National News for Mildura.

Predicted for today and the next 6 days:

MON 37
TUE 37
WED 38
THURS 41
FRI 43
SAT 43
SUN 44

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#1449706 - 22/01/2018 17:50 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Gee black!! That's terrible sustained heat!!

Makes us south of the ranges look like
Winter time!!

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#1449709 - 22/01/2018 17:53 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah agree TB! For around my area
They only predicting up to a mm on each
Day from Thursday to Saturday lol

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#1449715 - 22/01/2018 18:43 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2060
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Very little rain with that E moving storm, best I could see was 1.6mm.

Nice cooling SE in Sale atm.

Warmish day, fairly humid.

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#1449721 - 22/01/2018 19:17 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6338
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
32.9c for a high today so 6 days in a row above 30. Few anvils off to NE this evening.

SSE bit more grunt this arvo as well, back to 21.2c atm
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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