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#1449768 - 23/01/2018 08:16 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Very low cloud, calm with a thin drizzle here atm.

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#1449772 - 23/01/2018 09:33 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1232
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
I think today will be the pick of the week in terms of heat. At least here in the city. Nice to have a day off although it will probably stay muggy. Good exercise weather poke
Not looking forward to the nights on the weekend, Mins of 26! gonna be uncomfortable
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The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1449779 - 23/01/2018 09:57 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6338
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Plenty of showers around from Thursday onwards so pretty muggy for sure.
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1449788 - 23/01/2018 11:20 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Models are very interesting each time they
Update. Gfs wants more moisture and
Heavier storms but only eastern half of state.
Accessg likes it a little drier and warmer?
Imo
But neither model really liking much rain
For the western half of Victoria!
Only when the actual front pushes through
Early next week!!

Fascinating to see which way this all goes?

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#1449790 - 23/01/2018 12:24 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 288
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
The humidity looks incredible this coming weekend! Certainly going to feel like the top end.
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#1449832 - 23/01/2018 18:12 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My post for the past couple of days from here in Belgrave...

Monday January 22nd 2018

Low: 18.8C High: 34.0C Rain: TRACE


Tuesday January 23rd 2018

Low: 15.8C High: 31.7C Rain: 0mm


A spell of mostly settled mid-summer weather, thanks mostly to onshore winds from Bass Strait. Pleasant by night, warm to hot and noticeably humid by day, with an abundance of sunshine and cooling breezes. smile

Yesterday was a little cloudier than today, and it looked slightly unstable with the risk of showers and thunderstorms (but nothing eventuated sadly).


Edited by aussiestormfreak (23/01/2018 18:13)

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#1449836 - 23/01/2018 18:18 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
Blackacubra Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/04/2004
Posts: 775
Loc: Sunraysia, Victoria
Had a much cooler top of 37.2, today.

Predicted for today and the next 6 days:

TUE 37
WED 37
THURS 41
FRI 43
SAT 43
SUN 44
MON 39

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#1449839 - 23/01/2018 18:36 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7261
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS supports all comments above on the looming weekend weather!

Hot, muggy, wet, stormy .....and a challenge ahead for our agricultural growers (not, hopefully, the firefighters):


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#1449866 - 23/01/2018 21:00 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6338
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Streak over. 25.7c for a high today.

Still looks a reasonable chance to be wet out east at the end of the heat.

Showers storms along the ranges and here and there at start of next heat. Saturday perhaps just too hot for anything then Sunday night onwards.

Hopefully by Thursday 00z run it will be much clearer.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1449883 - 23/01/2018 21:55 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My family and I will really going to need to get the bushfire gear organised soon (humidity or no) if we don't get some serious soaking rain ASAP! Latest BOM forecast has 4-15mm predicted for Monday for nearby Scoresby (maybe a little more for us here in Belgrave). Hopefully it comes off, as it's getting desperate! frown

Very pleasant night out there, currently around 17C. smile

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#1449936 - 24/01/2018 10:58 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 12.1C, currently around 21C with fog/low cloud overhead (gradually breaking up) and allowing for sunny breaks. smile

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#1449940 - 24/01/2018 11:37 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6338
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Hi all 12z run doesn't offer a huge amount for central and western parts (except for Canadian). That was the first model to pull back on the overly hyped early December event so I am barracking hard for it right now.

But as said last night, 00z run tomorrow will hopefully paint a clearer and wetter picture though moisture not yet building inland as much as one would like.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1449954 - 24/01/2018 12:29 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah ruck, imo all the models look like they
Have backed off a little with moisture/storm
Activity even in the eastern half of Victoria!
The only real day in my area that could pick
Up something half decent is gfs on Friday,
Apart from that dry and hot?

Storms could end up being more a nuisance
Fire wise than anything ? Especially if there not
Many of them and they don't carry a lot
Of juice

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#1449979 - 24/01/2018 15:33 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6338
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
WRF model has pretty large amounts, pity its not that reliable...

Short range ACC is in and shows a little moisture making it a bit further west.

Straw - clutching.

DP's in SW qld are in double figures now without any weather as such plus storms in NSW inland so finally a bit of moisture building for when the flow returns to N or NE


Edited by Ruckle (24/01/2018 15:35)
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1449988 - 24/01/2018 16:19 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep ruck I reckon access r is slightly better.

Gfs is in and that looks better for moisture
On this arvo run

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#1449989 - 24/01/2018 16:22 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6338
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Yes just checked got a bullseye over my house from Friday into Saturday. Looks more like Canadian did before. LOL maybe the canucks are onto something...def this run of GFS has pulled the moisture west and for those out east keeps the easterlys up into next week as well.


Edited by Ruckle (24/01/2018 16:23)
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1449992 - 24/01/2018 17:00 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
Blackacubra Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/04/2004
Posts: 775
Loc: Sunraysia, Victoria
They've dropped some of our expected temperatures for the next week. Top of 29, expected for next Tuesday. We'll need our jumpers on. Ha Ha

Top of 38 today, is the highest I noticed.

Predicted for today and the next 6 days:

WED 37
THURS 40
FRI 40
SAT 42
SUN 44
MON 37
TUES 29

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#1449995 - 24/01/2018 17:06 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Hopefully the models stay the same
As this arvo?? Probably a day to day
Proposition with this set up lol

Bom has dropped the maximum back for
Tommoz and Friday for my area.

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#1449996 - 24/01/2018 17:07 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Let's see what access g has to say
Later on

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#1450013 - 24/01/2018 18:53 Re: VIC-Remaining hot NOD and becoming hot humid and possibly unsettled over a larger area 22/1-31-1 [Re: Ruckle]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7261
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Heavily overcast and calm day here, 25C, nice golfing conditions at Royal Maffra.

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