Page 281 of 301 < 1 2 ... 279 280 281 282 283 ... 300 301 >
Topic Options
#1449283 - 19/01/2018 09:09 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10135
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
WOW at those early temps!!! Obviously big NW winds/airflow to do that.

Well lads, 12 days till end of Jan and then 4 weeks till end of Feb.

Up here we will have temps in the 30's until about Feb 1st I reckon.

Running well above average as are a lot of places AGAIN.

This warming business is damned annoying for all us cool lovers.

Hang in there. smile

Top
#1449302 - 19/01/2018 10:19 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2012
Loc: Westbury
Odd quirk of the todays setup, Hobart reached 31.2 around 830 this morning, which will actually stand as the max temp for yesterday. With it cooling down ever since, the 9am temp of 29.4 may well be todays max.

We were running an average Jan temp of 25.2 at home after yesterdays effort, with another 10-11 days well over 25 to come we could be averaging well into the 27's or even 28's for Jan. Which is high for Tas. Nights are still cool. Even after yesterday reaching 31, it still cooled to just 12.8 this morning.


Edited by Snowies (19/01/2018 10:23)

Top
#1449327 - 19/01/2018 13:45 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10135
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
The weather's gone MAD, mad I tell you grin

We have similar stories, looking forward to a change in the patterns (for the better hopefully) grin

Top
#1449329 - 19/01/2018 14:27 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2012
Loc: Westbury
Completely mad, I wouldn't want to be forecasting the seasons - even the day to day weather can vary by so much depending on the timings of wind changes etc.

St Helens topped 39.2 which is there equal highest Jan temp at 2pm, at 2:10pm it was 25.5. Fingal also reached 39.2.

Eddystone point set its highest ever max temp after 107 years, moving the marker from 36.4 to 38.2 (temp jumped 10 degrees between 11:20 and 12pm) then crashed 13 degrees in the half hour between 1:30pm and 2pm.

Wind direction is driving temps up or down depending on the direction very quickly.

33.7 at Wynyard so far is hot for Wynyard, but still short of a record.



Edited by Snowies (19/01/2018 14:28)

Top
#1449338 - 19/01/2018 15:30 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10135
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yes it's not often Wynyard gets to 30. The ole evaporative cooler works too well normally.

Top
#1449340 - 19/01/2018 15:33 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Winter_lover Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2016
Posts: 81
Loc: Tasmania, Rokeby Hobart Easter...
Anyone have a crystal ball and know if February is shaping up to be cooler? =P

The cool change we had last week here in Hobart was nice though and brought the averages down a bit.


Edited by Winter_lover (19/01/2018 15:33)

Top
#1449361 - 19/01/2018 18:01 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2012
Loc: Westbury
Topped out at 35.5 at home, currently 31.

Me thinks the heat will roll well into March with the odd cooler spell.

Top
#1449367 - 19/01/2018 19:09 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1750
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
I was down there for 6 weeks back in 2007 it was around Feb Till March,it was hot and dry back then in the 35degs mark,and humid as well. It looks like it is getting hotter in Tas as well.
_________________________
https://www.facebook.com/supercell1
Click here for Ellalong live weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

Top
#1449387 - 19/01/2018 23:16 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 735
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Sorry W-Lover my crystal ball has melted , what a putrid day spent sweating it out in the king gees .
Hobart is now sitting on exactly 24 c average , about a degree under the monthly record . I'm afraid to say that yet another month and another record is looking doomed ?
The 15 day forecast looks warm to extremely hot now , most days next week 27 c and Friday 29 c and the both Sat and Sunday 33 c each and Monday week 25 c. Even this Sunday will see at least 25 c
The retirement idea of spending six months in Canada in our Summer and coming back in their Summer is looking better by the year . If ever see I another Summer any place on this Earth it will too soon smile

Top
#1449388 - 19/01/2018 23:27 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2178
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Very hot next weekend, could see 2 days of 37 degrees!

Top
#1449472 - 20/01/2018 18:43 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 419
Loc: Hobart
We will have an average maximum of 25.0c for the month in Hobart by Sunday 28th. I imagine the bush/grasses will be cured to extreme next weekend. Just checked out that Hobart area has had just under 20mm since December 8. Perhaps fortunate that there has been no windy periods with our heat cycles this summer (yet).

Top
#1449498 - 20/01/2018 23:03 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2012
Loc: Westbury
If the BOM 10 day is on the money, then you wouldn't mind betting that the odd 40 degree temp is on the cards, probably the upper east coast possibly Cressy or Ross or somewhere in the upper Derwent Valley. Not sure about Hobart just yet. BOM isnt being too bullish with its early forecasts.


Edited by Snowies (20/01/2018 23:08)

Top
#1449532 - 21/01/2018 10:37 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 419
Loc: Hobart
It used to be rare to get a 40-degree day in Tasmania. Maybe not so much anymore, BOM is increasing the chances by adding more sites to its network. But I think its still exciting to see a place go down to a 40-degree day especially older places. Inarguable of course those very hot days are increasing in frequency and impacting more areas and creating new records.

This was what I found for 40 degree days in Tasmania from BOM's page: Daily Extremes Tables. I didn't venture back before the 1970s.

From 1977 to 2002, there were only two recordings of 40 degrees in Tasmania, on January 3 1991 ( at Hobart AP and Grove ).

Then 2003 ( at Swansea and Campania* ), 2006 ( Campania* ), 2009 (Scamander, St Helens*, Ross, Flinders Island, Cressy, Launceston AP, Fingal ), 2010 ( Ouse* ), 2013 ( Hobart, Campania*, Bull Bay*, Denness Point*, Grove, Hobart AP, Bushy Park, Geeveston, Friendly Beaches* ), 2014 ( Bushy Park, Melton Mowbray* )

I added the asterisks to show sites that are newish ( opened in the 1990s or even later, such as Campania ). I see they have closed Scamander which is odd to me, site of Tasmania's maximum temperature of 42.2c in 2009 ).


Edited by yep (21/01/2018 10:40)

Top
#1449562 - 21/01/2018 14:54 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
pwa54 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 52
Loc: Kingston, Tasmania

Here's some sites and years for 40 plus up to 1977

BOM's old records had Hobart over 40 in 1897 and 1899

1943 (Swansea)
1945 (Bushy Park, Risdon)
1959 (Bushy Park, Grove, Hobart)
1973 (Geeveston, Hobart, Hobart Airport, Kingston, Risdon)
1976 (Hobart)

Top
#1449564 - 21/01/2018 14:57 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2178
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Very interesting stufff!
Not sure how we will go with the sea breeze down south.
A bit variable at time as we have had some really hot days with little wind and some cooler days as well, due to the sea breeze.
Agree it looks very interesting.
Maybe a few really hot days.

Top
#1449566 - 21/01/2018 15:21 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 419
Loc: Hobart
I would like to know why Bushy Parks 40c+ days in 1945 and 1959 are not documented anymore. Online has daily records in Bushy park from 1957 only, then there are three missing years after that. So both big readings disappear. I remember the 1945 reading is mentioned in an old BOM booklet, but what happened to that one? Swansea is the same, daily records listed as starting in 1957 , erasing out the 1943 reading. Maybe Blair Trewin can explain the missing temperatures.

Top
#1449573 - 21/01/2018 16:11 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
pwa54 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 52
Loc: Kingston, Tasmania
That 1959 heatwave was impressive and spread over several days. Bushy Park hit 40.6 and even Maydena got to 39.4.

(Maydena's extremes online are from 1965 although records for mean maxima are used from when the station opened in 1952, so the 1959 record no longer appears)

I've got photocopies from the 1980s of the BOM's monthly extreme maxima records which for Swansea go back to 1899 and Bushy Park back to 1931. Maybe there are quality control issues but extremes from those dates were listed as the official record as late as 1988.

Top
#1449604 - 21/01/2018 21:56 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 735
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
The Spring and Summer from hell , just when you can't imagine it could get any worse . I swear in 2 years time Hobart and most of Tasmania will be just like Adelaide temp wise during the warm months , as Dylan said " the times they are a changin' ".

Top
#1449605 - 21/01/2018 22:01 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2012
Loc: Westbury
Could push some of those site records come sat/sun...850tmps in the mid 20's will allow a few sites to nudge up toward 40. Some of the models hinting at decent rain after the weekends heat.

Top
#1449644 - 22/01/2018 09:54 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: pwa54]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 419
Loc: Hobart
Originally Posted By: pwa54

Here's some sites and years for 40 plus up to 1977

BOM's old records had Hobart over 40 in 1897 and 1899

1943 (Swansea)
1945 (Bushy Park, Risdon)
1959 (Bushy Park, Grove, Hobart)
1973 (Geeveston, Hobart, Hobart Airport, Kingston, Risdon)
1976 (Hobart)


I will just add to your list, Hobart reached 40 in December 1897 twice ( consecutive days ) and also in 1900. So 8 days altogether from 1882-2017.

You are right I guess, there are chunks of data out there for a number of sites that have either been wiped clean because of quality control issues, or the BOM haven't gotten around to putting the paper records online, or they can't find them. What they need to do is add a note to every site information page online and explain what they have got and why there may be missing data from the past. I expect that type of thoroughness from a scientific organization. That would be really helpful for every weather enthusiast that loves statistics, it's also questions like this which just fuels conspiracy gossip which is unfortunate for the reputation of people in the field.

Anyway, I don't know whether anybody has noticed yet but starting from today Hobart has a forecast of 7 days in a row of 25c or above, which would equal the all-time record if we get it.

Hobart's warmest January for mean temperature ( max+min combined ) was in 2003 with a min av: 13.6 and a max av: 25.0. I think there is a high chance now we'll beat it.

If so this follows on from the warmest October on record, followed by the warmest November, and second warmest December. A groundbreaking run of heat.

Top
Page 281 of 301 < 1 2 ... 279 280 281 282 283 ... 300 301 >


Who's Online
5 registered (LightningGus, ashestoashes, Steve O, Mcbobbings, 1 invisible), 48 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Andrew_C, Bindon, Leasy, Nikko, rainthisway, sutek, Tropicana
Forum Stats
29654 Members
32 Forums
23961 Topics
1497762 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image