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#1450037 - 24/01/2018 23:20 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Knot]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1081
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: Knot
A few of the places I like to keep tabs on as far a heat developments go are Mardie in WA (second hottest Aussie temp on record at 50.5). Oodnadatta ( need I say more) and Marble Bar in WA ( which is still the world record holder for verified number of days at or over the old 100 degrees F. A whopping 160 days in a row back in 1923/24. How is that for a heatwave. Anyway Mardie is a real indicator of heat generation that eventually gets dragged to the east if troughing is right and ridging. Mardie is currently running a few degrees above av for max. A little above for min. Oodnadatta about the same. So heat a plenty to come. Marble Bar is currently a little below for both min and max.


There certainly is some correlation with that Pilbara country area, it is the real "heat engine room", and heat being dragged here.
That temp in Mardie was in Feb 1998 , and corresponded to a ripping hot Feb and March on the east coast.
It is also a good idea to look at temps around that NW corner of the state, around the NSW-SA-Qld border area, a lot of heat generates from there as well.

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#1450039 - 25/01/2018 00:48 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6783
Oh how I miss sub 15C nights we were getting... Currently 23C here and can't get to sleep again because it's so hot.


Edited by Wave Rider (25/01/2018 00:48)
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2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1450042 - 25/01/2018 06:31 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Bit of a stinker all night.
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If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1450043 - 25/01/2018 06:31 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DVC Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/11/2011
Posts: 339
Loc: Goulburn NSW
Ah woken up to rain again unexpectedly. Is it storm remnants from last night? Cool and cloudy.
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#1450065 - 25/01/2018 11:10 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1552
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
This upcoming change doesnt look that spectacular rainwise but hopefully it can bring a few storms and little bit of wet stuff to the coast. It still looks pretty marginal going by GFS.

Access G at the end of its run (10 days) looks pretty special....trying to spin up deep inland low/lanfoon scenario again. I will be doing a girly dance if that comes off.....as I suspect will many others. Will it hold?or is it just another dangling carrot like all the others....

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#1450067 - 25/01/2018 11:37 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: GringosRain]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 311
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
This upcoming change doesnt look that spectacular rainwise but hopefully it can bring a few storms and little bit of wet stuff to the coast. It still looks pretty marginal going by GFS.

Access G at the end of its run (10 days) looks pretty special....trying to spin up deep inland low/lanfoon scenario again. I will be doing a girly dance if that comes off.....as I suspect will many others. Will it hold?or is it just another dangling carrot like all the others....

EC is also running the same thing although it isn't a deep low, the origin of the low seems to be the current low embedded in the monsoon trough(over the top end), so lots of tropical moisture dragged in.

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#1450069 - 25/01/2018 11:43 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Wotz it gonna be 'the carrot or the stick'
I think ants are better at weather prediction. Keep an eye on ant activity Gringo. And other critters. Birds that start hangin round a dried up waterhole etc. You prob do that kind of thing anyhow.

Not too bad weather wise. This annoying high cloud can bugger off though
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#1450073 - 25/01/2018 12:27 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Knot]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1552
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
yeah the ants I have observed are about 7-10 days in front of a big event. They were hard at it yesterday and fairly active this morning.

Problem is they worked hard with the last few dangling carrot events too and everything went around us. So they know something is coming generally, but dont think they guarantee rain over us....

Im building a rainmaker this afternoon, so that should sort things out. It will benefit you in Toronto too mate. They work for 30 miles.

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#1450074 - 25/01/2018 12:38 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1081
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
One thing that may have gone unnoticed is that the big 5-0, ie 50C, has been cracked this summer in western Victoria.
Most summers are close but no cigar, esp around the Pilbara area of WA where high 40's are pretty commonplace.
Whether we get another heatwave burst in Feb remains to be seen. Last year's Feb was quite extraordinary, if we can repeat it.

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#1450076 - 25/01/2018 13:01 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3780
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
That 50 was spurious (mostly likely a 5-degree reading error); another site 6km away was 45.2.

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#1450079 - 25/01/2018 13:20 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10130
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
We are currently travelling about the same average in January as we had in February last year. We have about 5 days official data missing but I suspect it will still be representative, 2 days were several degrees below average but 3 days were well over.

Long term average max for Jan is 28.4 - we are running about 31.5 and each day till month end will likely be above 31/32.

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#1450080 - 25/01/2018 13:24 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1670
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Storms out west again like yesterday,only this time they look to be moving faster east,not like yesterday when they stayed on the ranges,We will see what happens.
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#1450081 - 25/01/2018 13:30 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DVC Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/11/2011
Posts: 339
Loc: Goulburn NSW
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#1450084 - 25/01/2018 14:04 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 585
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Going off Williamtown sounding there is very little shear. Been same all week.

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#1450085 - 25/01/2018 14:15 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DVC Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/11/2011
Posts: 339
Loc: Goulburn NSW
Fantastic intense cell - 5mm in 5 minutes!
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#1450089 - 25/01/2018 14:55 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10130
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Light shower here, it looked much better just north of here, lightning etc.

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#1450090 - 25/01/2018 15:06 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6783
Some storms coming from the west in a squall line but there is a big gap to the west of Bowral so it looks like the storms will go north and south of us if they even make it to the coast.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1450098 - 25/01/2018 16:16 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Wave Rider]
Max744 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2002
Posts: 1585
Loc: Cooks Gap - Kingsgrove NSW
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Some storms coming from the west in a squall line but there is a big gap to the west of Bowral so it looks like the storms will go north and south of us if they even make it to the coast.



Doubt they'll make it Reills. I just ran a fast loop on the radar, and they seem to be evaporating.

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#1450099 - 25/01/2018 16:21 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5709
Loc: Dural
Geez, there some lightning active storms in NSW atm.
Tracker is currently picking up over 100 strikes a minute over various storms.

www.lightningmaps.org
*edit* Just went up to 160/min. shocked



Edited by Homer (25/01/2018 16:22)

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#1450100 - 25/01/2018 16:26 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10130
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Gunna be sticky at tennis tonight!! smile

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