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#1450360 - 26/01/2018 21:57 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4762
Thanks GR, much appreciated.

Gee you must have been awfully close to some precipitation this afternoon?

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#1450392 - 27/01/2018 00:39 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1670
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
I am near GR EddyG,yes a huge storm just west of us here booms of thunder but it just stayed there, for an hour,then just fizzed out,it pees you off when there is a deluge only about 7kms away,maybe tomorrow the storms here seem to be getting closer every day.


Edited by Stormy3 (27/01/2018 00:41)
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Click here for Ellalong live weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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#1450397 - 27/01/2018 08:53 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Sweaty as a fish.
_________________________
If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1450409 - 27/01/2018 09:53 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4762
Nice to see a bit of convection way offshore this morning.

So far this morning we have clear skies, a lot better start to the day than yesterday.
Hopefully the Noreaster doesn't become a sea gale.

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#1450411 - 27/01/2018 10:11 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1552
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Access now looks rubbish for eastern NSW. Inland QLD would be happy though. Just another carrot.

Rather have GFS showers then the bunch of nothing Access turned into....

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#1450413 - 27/01/2018 10:47 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6789
I reckon there will be some decent coastal showers on and off from Wednesday but it's hard to say how far inland they will go. It's not a cool, dry southerly change but more of a moist E/SE change which generally don't deliver huge rainfall rates but it gradually adds up. It should be rainy for the Illawarra at least with assistance from the escarpment.

Bloody hell it's humid 28/24 here.


Edited by Wave Rider (27/01/2018 10:51)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1450414 - 27/01/2018 11:06 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1950
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
The worst thing about next week's southerly pattern is the duration. Some models are pushing for six consecutive days of onshore southerlies and showers.

Hopefully that doesn't pan out otherwise we're looking at a catastrophic ice cream vendor alert. Businesses here really suffer in these weather patterns.

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#1450418 - 27/01/2018 11:19 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4106
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The upcoming pattern reminds me of the typical 4 day forecast for Sydney in the Summer months of the mid 1990s: (Showers, 18-22) * 4. They didn't have 7 day forecasts back then, otherwise you could have replaced the 4 with a 7.

GFS shows it lasting for 8 or 9 days, while Access has it lasting a few days before a high pressure ridge forms over the coast. EC is in between, lasting 5 or 6 days. EC has a bit of a bullseye on the Illawarra on the 31st but apart from that the models just small rainfall totals of the coastal strip (1-5mm) and nothing West of the Blue Mountains.

A good time for a short holiday inland if I didn't have commitments.

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#1450419 - 27/01/2018 11:31 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 588
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Another day of an unstable atmosphere with no shear. 😔

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#1450420 - 27/01/2018 11:36 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
ashestoashes Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 311
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Another day of an unstable atmosphere with no shear. 😔

I've always wondered how much shear we need for a decent storm.

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#1450430 - 27/01/2018 12:48 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
corsto Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2005
Posts: 354
Loc: Chittaway Pt, n.s.w - Cent. Co...
NE'r starting to kick over 5kts here at 12:45.

32.5 @ 56% making things rather sticky.

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#1450432 - 27/01/2018 13:00 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Norah Head over 30 again in a nor easter. No cool breeze
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If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1450437 - 27/01/2018 13:21 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Knot]
corsto Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2005
Posts: 354
Loc: Chittaway Pt, n.s.w - Cent. Co...
Originally Posted By: Knot
Norah Head over 30 again in a nor easter. No cool breeze


Blows my mind how warm the sea-breeze is. Oh well we're into another night of atleast 26+ at midnight.

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#1450444 - 27/01/2018 14:44 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Norah does seem to get a bit warmer at times in a nor easter than a comparable site like Nobbys. But often they level peg. Elevation and aws position a factor I guess.
Cloud has broken up a lot. Which is good
_________________________
If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1450446 - 27/01/2018 14:57 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: ashestoashes]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6789
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Another day of an unstable atmosphere with no shear. 😔

I've always wondered how much shear we need for a decent storm.


If a storm forms on top of you it's okay to have no shear but because most storms form on the ranges you need a fairly decent amount of shear to bring them to the coastal plain.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1450447 - 27/01/2018 15:02 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8472
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
This is usually how a drought starts to break, daily slow moving storms over the inland, today hardly moving meaning big totals for anyone under them. Every day they sit in a different spot, over time it all accumulates.

The trough will continue to sit there before the big break comes mid week, the further E/SE the tropical low moves, the more interaction it'll have with the next front.

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#1450448 - 27/01/2018 15:03 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4762
We have a small cell trying to get going here, probably only 30ks away from the coast.

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#1450451 - 27/01/2018 15:08 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5714
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Another day of an unstable atmosphere with no shear. 😔

I've always wondered how much shear we need for a decent storm.


If a storm forms on top of you it's okay to have no shear but because most storms form on the ranges you need a fairly decent amount of shear to bring them to the coastal plain.


.......and then most of them die anyway!!

I noticed in the BOM's 9.55 am update that they increased the chances of a storm in Sydney's west to medium and 50% for this afternoon.
Still looks unlikely, well at this stage anyway.

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#1450454 - 27/01/2018 15:31 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1670
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
The NEter is blowing here now,there was some closer storms out to my west starting to get going,NEter soon stopped them in there tracks,but there is heaps further out west, we will wait to see what they can do.


Edited by Stormy3 (27/01/2018 15:32)
_________________________
https://www.facebook.com/supercell1
Click here for Ellalong live weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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#1450457 - 27/01/2018 15:52 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2035
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
It’s not the shear that’s the problem, though storms defin need some push, it’s the strength of the ne’erlies that is killing them - maritime air, while humid, is stable and cooler, hence killing updrafts as they push to the coast. Inland, different story as they have a chance to heat up and actually fuel storms.

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