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#1450314 - 26/01/2018 19:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5159
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: Raindammit
Current GFS has a TC hitting FNQ near Cairns on Feb 10.


Can't wait for the media to get a hold of that. grin

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#1450322 - 26/01/2018 19:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
There have fun with that lol
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Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1450328 - 26/01/2018 20:30 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Brett Guy]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 229
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Originally Posted By: Raindammit
Current GFS has a TC hitting FNQ near Cairns on Feb 10.


Can't wait for the media to get a hold of that. grin


That'll be interesting to watch for sure.

I wonder if the Queensland Tourism Industry Council shall complain at that as well. lol

http://www.news.com.au/travel/australian...9965b0f25b05525


Edited by MangroveJack70 (26/01/2018 20:41)

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#1450358 - 26/01/2018 21:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Raindammit]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Raindammit
Current GFS has a TC hitting FNQ near Cairns on Feb 10.


Gone. Another swimmer off to the graveyard on their update.
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#1450449 - 27/01/2018 15:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
If we get a coast crosser I am betting its in march or april.
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Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1450549 - 28/01/2018 10:44 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 389
Loc: Golden Beach
Looks like some rotation on a line just north of weipa. What a waste!

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#1450580 - 28/01/2018 14:36 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Anyone seen the latest access....a low enters cs from CYP and just sits almost stationary for days intensifying. Thoughts?
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1450588 - 28/01/2018 15:53 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Probably hanging around waiting for that bastard upper trough to p.o. & then do a coast hugger all the way to Coolangatta!
I wish!


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (28/01/2018 15:53)

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#1450594 - 28/01/2018 16:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Haha. That would be awesome.
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Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1450635 - 28/01/2018 21:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 229
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Anyone seen the latest access....a low enters cs from CYP and just sits almost stationary for days intensifying. Thoughts?


Think you'll find it was captured within the GFS modelling runs around Monday (22 Jan) - low enters cs from CYP.


Edited by MangroveJack70 (28/01/2018 21:34)

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#1450651 - 28/01/2018 23:03 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
And access has it slipping to the SE. I still say we will get a crosser in march maybe april.
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1450733 - 29/01/2018 15:53 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4219
Loc: El Arish
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Monday 29 January 2018
for the period until midnight EST Thursday 1 February 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant lows in the region and none are expected to develop today or during Tuesday. A strengthening monsoon flow will develop in the northwest Coral Sea from mid-week, leading to an increase in the risk of tropical cyclone potential later in the week. If a tropical cyclone was to form in the northwest Coral Sea, it would move east-southeast, away from the Queensland coast.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Tuesday:Very Low
Wednesday:Low
Thursday:Moderate


http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/cyclone.shtml
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#1450775 - 29/01/2018 19:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
SnowedIn Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/02/2011
Posts: 243
Loc: Mt Baw Baw Village, Victoria
I'm heading to Cairns and Port Douglas from the 10-18 Feb. what are the chances of anything significant?

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#1450778 - 29/01/2018 19:30 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13366
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
At this stage, slim.
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Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1450875 - 30/01/2018 13:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 504
Loc: Elimbah 4516
This morning most models were indicating better steering flow more favourable for QLD in around 7-10 days time so hopefully by then there's a system out there taking advantage of this.
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#1450896 - 30/01/2018 15:51 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Hello Hurricane Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/04/2012
Posts: 70
Loc: Rockhampton, Qld
Likelihood of a Tropical Cyclone for Friday - High.

Quote:
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Tuesday 30 January 2018
for the period until midnight EST Friday 2 February 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.

Potential Cyclones:
There are no significant lows currently in the region and none are expected to develop today or during Wednesday. Strengthening monsoon flow in the northwest Coral Sea will increase the chance of tropical cyclone development from Thursday, more likely along the monsoon trough.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Moderate
Friday:High

Conditions for tropical cyclone development, or a tropical cyclone to persist, remain favourable over the weekend, with the best chance along the monsoon trough in the northern Coral Sea.

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:less than 5%Low:5% to 20%
Moderate:20 to 50%High:Over 50%
The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

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#1450901 - 30/01/2018 16:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
latest GFS moving the system east south east still, expect the other models to say the same tonight.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

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#1450903 - 30/01/2018 16:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1232
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
EC and Access briefly push it towards the coast then it scoots off to cyclone never-never
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Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

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#1450905 - 30/01/2018 16:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
We all know everything will be pushed SE.

Once conditions are favourable we will get nothing lol


Edited by rainthisway (30/01/2018 17:01)
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1450907 - 30/01/2018 17:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
This morning most models were indicating better steering flow more favourable for QLD in around 7-10 days time so hopefully by then there's a system out there taking advantage of this.
Gone, trough over the CS on every single day of GFS 14 day.

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