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#1454620 - 25/02/2018 17:46 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - February 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2351
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
19 - same as RF, didn't last long, few good bolts on lightning and away it went
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#1454630 - 25/02/2018 18:40 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - February 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Pacman Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 14/11/2001
Posts: 5235
Loc: Cairns - Upper Bentley Park
The line of storms looked pretty good until the southern flank impacted Lambs Range(1308mtrs)Chejuba Peak(1060mtrs)and Bellenden Ker. Notice the northern flank of the storm did well to make it off the ranges with no vertical interference from mountains.

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#1454632 - 25/02/2018 18:47 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - February 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
scott12 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 950
Loc: maadi Tully area
41mm here today...all gone now though.

48mm yesterday..

What a stormy old season..!...


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#1454641 - 25/02/2018 19:33 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - February 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Pacman Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 14/11/2001
Posts: 5235
Loc: Cairns - Upper Bentley Park
Indeed Scott, was discussing the stormy season with the other half this afternoon; plenty of storms this season and no monsoon (so far ) and yet rainfall for us in Cairns has been above average.

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#1454650 - 25/02/2018 20:17 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - February 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
hickory Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/01/2006
Posts: 1326
Loc: Holloways Beach QLD
The MJO Pulse has gone through Phase 8 and most of Phase 1 in just on a week.
Come on Phase's 4 & 5.

[img:left][/img]

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#1454663 - 25/02/2018 21:09 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - February 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Ronfishes Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3589
Loc: Gordonvale
Pretty sure it nudged Cooktown breifly last time around? Southern side produced quite a bit of Jan totals? Could be wrong.

At least that storm mixed down some cool air this arvo.
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MTD: 39.6mm
2017-2018 wet season(Nov-Apr): 2259mm

YTD: 2133.6mm



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#1454665 - 25/02/2018 21:35 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - February 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
drivenunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2010
Posts: 2063
Loc: Kewarra Beach, Cairns
What is required to get into phase 4 + 5? Does phase 8 reduce our general chances of rain over the coming months?
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Bring on the rain!!!

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#1454668 - 25/02/2018 21:57 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - February 2018 [Re: drivenunder]
hickory Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/01/2006
Posts: 1326
Loc: Holloways Beach QLD
Originally Posted By: drivenunder
What is required to get into phase 4 + 5? Does phase 8 reduce our general chances of rain over the coming months?

Phase 8 & 1 has the pulse over Africa & the Western Hemisphere.
Phase 2 & 3 has it over the Indian ocean heading for NW of W.A.
Then 4 & 5 is over the top of Oz. So we just wait another week or more.

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#1454674 - 25/02/2018 23:05 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - February 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 1650
Loc: Mareeba
I had a look at the BOM's synoptic archive the other day and the MT was running through Queensland, above Cape Melville, from the 27th Jan through and left on the 1st Feb. It dipped below Cape Melville one day, either the 30th or 31st Jan.
The whole time the MT was running through Queensland I received 6mm. Does anyone know how close a MT needs to be to have weather associated with the MT? I don't know much about the MT as it is very rarely around. I much prefer a strong MJO for a more reliable increase in rainfall.
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MTD: 6.4mm
YTD: 985.4mm
2018 Daily Obs

2017: 898.4mm
2016: 491.4mm
2015: 826.2mm

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#1454676 - 26/02/2018 00:10 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - February 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
hickory Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/01/2006
Posts: 1326
Loc: Holloways Beach QLD
From the time the MT fully 'linked' on 26 Jan,- 'til it broke on Jan 30 as TC Fehi moved a fair way S.East, CNS Aero had 162.8 mm.
All I've read over time is it needs to be north of us, not south. From memory, when it has run right through CNS rain hasn't been impressive at all.

We've had about 945 mm for the year (CNS Aero). Filling Tinaroo would be the ultimate achievement.

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#1454694 - 26/02/2018 08:16 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - February 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
FNQ Bunyip Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2004
Posts: 1443
Loc: North bank river Daintree
Yeah Hickory , Been watch that MJO signal as well..

I think to get the best rain you need a strong MJO (the further out from the center the stronger) with the MT between about Princess Charlotte Bay and Cape Trib.

Any one had a look at the longer range models??? Because we need a good go with this next MJO passing or it could be April before we know it and our wet season will be gone..


Cheers


Oh and only 12mm up here frown
_________________________
2015 4060mm
2016 3112mm
2017 3892mm
2018 Rainfall


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#1454702 - 26/02/2018 09:45 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - February 2018 [Re: FNQ Bunyip]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 1650
Loc: Mareeba
Originally Posted By: FNQ Bunyip

I think to get the best rain you need a strong MJO (the further out from the center the stronger) with the MT between about Princess Charlotte Bay and Cape Trib.


So would you say the distance from the MT that you generally have increased rainfall would be about 200kms.
When ever I think of the MT I think of a TL/TC sliding to the SE with all our rainfall lol. I think I have been unlucky since I have been in FNQ.
Here is an example. This is the synoptic from 31st Jan at 5am which shows the MT in an ok position but with the remnants of TC Fehi still tapped in to the MT taking our moisture to NZ.



Edited by Simmo FNQ (26/02/2018 09:45)
_________________________
MTD: 6.4mm
YTD: 985.4mm
2018 Daily Obs

2017: 898.4mm
2016: 491.4mm
2015: 826.2mm

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#1454714 - 26/02/2018 10:44 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - February 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Pacman Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 14/11/2001
Posts: 5235
Loc: Cairns - Upper Bentley Park
Going by the MSLP map above the monsoon was south of Weipa passing through Cape Flattery to Pormpuraaw across the Cape with severe flooding occurring to the north of the monsoon trough. Weipa received 370mm over 2 days. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/201801/html/IDCJDW4133.201801.shtml

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#1454719 - 26/02/2018 11:33 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - February 2018 [Re: Pacman]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4128
Loc: El Arish
Originally Posted By: scott12
41mm here today...all gone now though.

48mm yesterday..

What a stormy old season..!...


We had pretty similar result for a change.

I recorded 43mm against your 48mm and 42mm yesterday, where you had 41.
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Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

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#1454720 - 26/02/2018 11:43 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - February 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25255
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
the best rains for NE Qld come on the southern side of the MT usually due to the ridge pushing SE/E winds in the trough mixing with the NW north of the trough. The problem we had in Jan, as shown in the MSLP chart is that the tasman low stopped the trades (SE winds) pushing into the MT, so no convergence was created south of the MT. All the convergence remained north of it as the NW winds pushed into it. We have struggled all season so far with drier air into Northern Qld which has starved us of moisture, bar on a few occasion, and of course the last week as the upper trough and low have dominated.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
March 2018 total - 296mm (194mm)
April 2018 total - 12.4mm (66mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 794.4mm (1107mm)

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#1454726 - 26/02/2018 12:31 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - February 2018 [Re: Mick10]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 1650
Loc: Mareeba
Originally Posted By: Mick10
The problem we had in Jan, as shown in the MSLP chart is that the tasman low stopped the trades (SE winds) pushing into the MT, so no convergence was created south of the MT.


And there in lies the problem I have seen in majority of cases when we have an active MT. SE bloody sliders. Just when you think yay we are going into an active MT cycle a TL pops up in the CS sucking moisture in to it. Then slides SE, taking the moisture with it and blocking the trades.
Only been in FNQ since July 2012 and from what I have heard this is not always the case just seems to have been regular since then though.
_________________________
MTD: 6.4mm
YTD: 985.4mm
2018 Daily Obs

2017: 898.4mm
2016: 491.4mm
2015: 826.2mm

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#1454754 - 26/02/2018 14:20 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - February 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 1650
Loc: Mareeba
Some cells appearing on radar. Should be in with another good chance today.

Temp 32.1c , Humidity 71%, DP 26.2c
_________________________
MTD: 6.4mm
YTD: 985.4mm
2018 Daily Obs

2017: 898.4mm
2016: 491.4mm
2015: 826.2mm

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#1454807 - 26/02/2018 18:36 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - February 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Mr Dolphin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 662
Loc: Kewarra Beach Qld
Best thunder ever out here! Pure bone rattlers. Very heavy downpour of rain too, just settling now. Once the lightning has cleared Iíll venture out to the nylex.

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#1454811 - 26/02/2018 18:42 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - February 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Mr Dolphin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 662
Loc: Kewarra Beach Qld
Only 11mm out of that cell. It was a very quick 11mm though.

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#1454819 - 26/02/2018 18:55 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - February 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2379
Loc: Chillagoe
Just build-up season cloud here.
Pleasant day.

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