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#1449025 - 16/01/2018 22:25 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
So basically until that buggers off. The monsoon is not gonna happen. Has there been a year with no monsoon at all?
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Nikko

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#1449028 - 16/01/2018 22:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Stormwithin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/12/2016
Posts: 152
And then gfs cooks up a goc low and sends it west 😂😂

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#1449029 - 16/01/2018 22:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I'm guessing that broader tropical patterns and MJO progress make cyclone development in coral sea highly likely in 10 days. However movement will depend on where the cyclone forms in relation to any subtropical/upper level ridges or troughs, and this far out it is impossible to accurately predict where these will be.

Absolutely agree.. Something brewing in coral sea or gulf is quite a different forecast opinion for confidence perspective compared to confidence of where it will go, and different again for confidence in what it may bring to the "random" location of impacts.
One model only gives a limited "view" or speculation at best for such long lead time..
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#1449066 - 17/01/2018 09:38 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
A few other models have jumped on board, some less reliable but access has a low forming right near the coast on the 10th day
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1449074 - 17/01/2018 10:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I'm guessing that broader tropical patterns and MJO progress make cyclone development in coral sea highly likely in 10 days.


Or at least a tropical depression. Current GFS has upper unsuitable for development in the coral sea so the low dies and instead the Gulf low develops and moves south.

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#1449202 - 18/01/2018 13:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Seems the low in the cs has been dropped completely now
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#1449211 - 18/01/2018 14:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 389
Loc: Golden Beach
Is the activity across Cape York, Gulf and NT the monsoon trough? If not it will do till it arrives as it looks very active up that way. Unusual to see activity up that way streaming down from due north, usually Nw or easterly feed. That area is desperate for rain some all, time record dry areas on maps posted on wz forums recently.

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#1449224 - 18/01/2018 17:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Now multiple models have a low forming. Gfs 8 day having a goc low give us rain followed by a coast hugger in the cs at the end of the 8 day.
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1449234 - 18/01/2018 18:01 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5236
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
The biggest thing for me over the last week has been the complete inconsistency of the GFS model - sure it indicates something might form, but the complete about turns pretty much every run are poor form. Longer term (10-15 day) EC has been more consistent with a system forming in the Coral Sea but moving off to the east / south east.
Appreciate the problems models have forecasting movement before anything has formed, but even by GFS standards it's feeling pretty poor. Guess it's a case of waiting for something to spin up before the models settle down.

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#1449250 - 18/01/2018 20:42 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: KevD]
Hailin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 1018
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Thursday 18 January 2018
for the period until midnight CST Sunday 21 January 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant tropical lows in the region. The monsoon trough located over the northern Top End coast is becoming more active during the next few days. A tropical low may form within the trough and slowly develop. If a low does form it is likely to move towards the Kimberley Coast in WA over the weekend.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Friday:
Very Low.
Saturday:
Very Low.
Sunday:
Very Low.

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#1449256 - 18/01/2018 21:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Pfft....bloody wa is lucky this year
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1449294 - 19/01/2018 09:36 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
God I hope we get that GoC low. That would bring good rain.
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1449331 - 19/01/2018 14:35 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 535
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
God I hope we get that GoC low. That would bring good rain.

And then moving inland and crossing Townsville as a deep low giving us more rain.

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#1449332 - 19/01/2018 14:38 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
And keep moving further south giving us some rain as well...

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#1449346 - 19/01/2018 15:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5159
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Obviously not going to amount to anything but the vis sat loop is showing some distinct rotation west of Cooktown. I guess this is what is leading to the far larger than forecast falls on the NTC

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#1449369 - 19/01/2018 19:26 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Id say so lol
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1449460 - 20/01/2018 17:15 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
Hailin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 1018
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Saturday 20 January 2018
for the period until midnight CST Tuesday 23 January 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough extends northwest to southeast across the Top End. A weak Tropical Low, 1002 hPa, is located in the monsoon trough over the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria. The Low is expected to remain slow moving over the next day or two, before moving to the west early next week. If the Low remains over water there is only a low chance of it developing into a Tropical Cyclone in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria on Monday.
Although the movement of the Low is uncertain in the longer term, the risk of a Tropical Cyclone developing remains low on Tuesday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Sunday:
Very Low.
Monday:
Low.
Tuesday:
Low

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#1449461 - 20/01/2018 17:16 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5159
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
The eddy that was west of cooktown has dissapeard now which seems to have lessened the amount of rain coming onto the coast but jeez things are starting to look lively in the southern gulf. really getting interested now to see where it consolidates

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#1449467 - 20/01/2018 17:51 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
BOM says likely to move west early in the new week, latest GFS pushes it into SE GOC coast, sadly a weak low/trough in the coral sea stops any decent convergence along the east coast from the lows inflow.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

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#1449486 - 20/01/2018 21:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Why is there over 300 mm forecast for this week by gfs and about 200mm on bom watl.
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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