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#1449967 - 24/01/2018 14:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Just had a look at NZ Metservice Tropical Cyclone Outlook until 1200 UTC Saturday 27 Jan 2018.
A depression is expected to develop in the Coral Sea later this week. There is a low risk of this depression developing into a cyclone before Saturday. Increasing to a moderate risk on Saturday.
BOM has a very low risk until Friday, very interested in their new update this afternoon.

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#1449986 - 24/01/2018 16:06 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Wednesday 24 January 2018
for the period until midnight EST Saturday 27 January 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.
Potential Cyclones:

A weak trough currently extends across the northwest Coral Sea. This trough is expected to deepen and become more active as a monsoon develops through the Coral Sea from Friday through the weekend.
A low may develop within the monsoon trough over the Coral Sea in the coming days, well offshore from the Queensland coast, with a moderate chance of cyclone development from Saturday as the monsoon strengthens. If a low or tropical cyclone did form, it would move east-southeast, away from the Queensland coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Thursday:Very low
Friday:Very low
Saturday:Moderate

Considering the decent rotation already evident on the Willis radar, surprised they are saying 'a low may develop'.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

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#1450002 - 24/01/2018 18:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Locke]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 535
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: Locke
Bah.

GFS seems to have a "conga line" of TC's or lows heading towards NZ at least in the foreseeable future.

I guess plenty of wet and windy weather for FNQ whilst this goes on.

Yea far north as in north of Cairns, so Cooktown should see some wet wild weather if that low/cyclone that comes through the gulf and crosses the cape near Cooktown happens as GFS predicts.

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#1450003 - 24/01/2018 18:08 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mick10]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 535
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: Mick10
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Wednesday 24 January 2018
for the period until midnight EST Saturday 27 January 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.
Potential Cyclones:

A weak trough currently extends across the northwest Coral Sea. This trough is expected to deepen and become more active as a monsoon develops through the Coral Sea from Friday through the weekend.
A low may develop within the monsoon trough over the Coral Sea in the coming days, well offshore from the Queensland coast, with a moderate chance of cyclone development from Saturday as the monsoon strengthens. If a low or tropical cyclone did form, it would move east-southeast, away from the Queensland coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Thursday:Very low
Friday:Very low
Saturday:Moderate

Considering the decent rotation already evident on the Willis radar, surprised they are saying 'a low may develop'.

The bureau has a 1004 low there on the "Analysis for 00:00 UTC on Wednesday 24 January 2018". GFS and EC has it at 1001 on www.windy.com


Edited by Red Watch (24/01/2018 18:10)

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#1450006 - 24/01/2018 18:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Can only just make out its rotation to the north of willis now, still spinning away but gee its moved quickly since this morning. get some good cloud around it on sat pic.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

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#1450016 - 24/01/2018 19:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5159
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
AccessG seems to have zero interest in the gulf low but GFS is still pretty determined to go with it. You would think this close they should be a little better aligned

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#1450018 - 24/01/2018 19:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Its been like that for weeks...no models align.
_________________________
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Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1450026 - 24/01/2018 20:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4219
Loc: El Arish
That always makes me laugh, when you see the term "a low may develop"

Sometimes on their synoptic chart there will have been a low sitting there for 3 or more days.
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1450088 - 25/01/2018 14:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
gazza townsville Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2012
Posts: 438
Well typical Townsville Bulliten fashion scare mongering. You would have to assume that they have stake of some kind in coles and woolies ffs

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#1450102 - 25/01/2018 16:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Stupid article. Total joke.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

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#1450120 - 25/01/2018 18:15 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mick10]
Hailin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 1018
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Thursday 25 January 2018
for the period until midnight EST Sunday 28 January 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.
Potential Cyclones:
A weak low pressure system is currently located to the southeast of Papua New Guinea. Due to the developing monsoon across the northern Coral Sea, the low is forecast to intensify over the next few days.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone, well offshore from the Queensland coast, with a moderate chance of development on Saturday and Sunday as the monsoon strengthens. If a tropical cyclone did form, it would move east to southeast, away from the Australian east coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Friday:Very low
Saturday:Moderate
Sunday:Moderate

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#1450121 - 25/01/2018 18:16 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Hailin]
Hailin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 1018
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:19 pm CST on Thursday 25 January 2018
for the period until midnight CST Sunday 28 January 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough extends across the base of the Top End. A Tropical Low, 1000 hPa, is located over land in the monsoon trough approximately 180km southwest of Katherine. The Low is expected to slowly move westwards over the next few days. The low is expected to remain well inland.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Friday:Very Low.
Saturday:Very Low.
Sunday:Very Low.

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#1450134 - 25/01/2018 19:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
gazza townsville Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2012
Posts: 438
Stupid article i agree but just went to coles. No bread no milk and thats pretty much all i went there for pain in the arse what happens over crap every single time.

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#1450147 - 25/01/2018 21:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
the Townsville Bulletin, supporting local grocers every wet season since 1881!
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

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#1450154 - 25/01/2018 21:32 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Weren't there times in the past where some of you guys sent in complaints about such articles? I guess they'll never learn.

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#1450180 - 26/01/2018 01:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
sure did, journos, editors come and go. esp regional papers.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

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#1450187 - 26/01/2018 08:10 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1664
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Hopefully it is time to wake up from my boring weather hibernation!

This satellite image timelapse, which updates every 30 minutes, gives a good idea of how things are potentially building up in our region.

http://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/HimawariSatellite-Pacific.aspx
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https://www.WeatherForum.com.au

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#1450206 - 26/01/2018 11:15 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1928
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Every bit of moisture helps.
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.

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#1450222 - 26/01/2018 13:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
But don't all the models have everything roaring off to the SE or westward and leaving most of Eastern Australia bone dry?

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#1450284 - 26/01/2018 17:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13367
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Current GFS has a TC hitting FNQ near Cairns on Feb 10.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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