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#1451108 - 01/02/2018 08:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3044
Loc: Buderim


The recent trade wind burst has been the strongest yet in the west, but hasn't been as strong in the central regions. However the SSTs have overall warmed a little. This is because of the warming impact of the Kelvin wave generated by the last WWB. I also think part of this is due to the strongest trade winds being too far west. This trade wind surge is moving further east and the forecast WWB is just barely starting to have an impact within TAO monitoring region.



In the subsurface the Kelvin wave is pretty much on its last legs in the far east. Given the trade winds I'd say the cooling in the middle is not just relaxation, but a cool Kelvin Wave, which may combine with surface cooling as the last of the trade wind burst moves further east for a double whammy cooling effect.

But already the next warm Kelvin wave appears to be developing in the far west and forecasts suggest this WWB will be stronger than the last one. It does seem interesting that overall variability in both directions with trade winds seems to be increasing. Obs now confirm a very strong MJO signal has entered the western Pacific.


EC has it continuing at a typical pace and then weakening after it passes through. CFS says it will stall in West Pacific and only weaken slowly, which could sustain a long and powerful WWB, but is there enough energy available to sustain such a strong convective signal in one region for that long?

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#1451109 - 01/02/2018 08:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1902
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Nope. Chris called it days ago re cold Kelvin Wave. Looking more likely this will be a back-to-back event, with next year looking like a typical La Niña if this continues.

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#1451115 - 01/02/2018 09:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1786
Loc: Kingaroy
Like I mentioned in another post I think the models are overcooking the strength of the MJO a bit because where is the energy coming from to fuel an MJO of that magnitude?
Earth.nullschool still has healthy looking trade winds, perhaps the Pacific as a whole is slowly trending towards La Nina.


Edited by Chris Stumer (01/02/2018 09:22)

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#1451118 - 01/02/2018 09:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3044
Loc: Buderim
Since November easterly anomalies have outdone westerly anomalies by quite a lot if you look at what I posted above. Yet the subsurface cool pool has pretty much disappeared, and surface temp has stayed about the same. This is because the subsurface is heavily stacked for warming.

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#1451121 - 01/02/2018 10:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
gazzatsv Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/03/2011
Posts: 659
Loc: Townsville


Yep this Is a La Niña if I’ve ever seen one 😂🙄

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#1451125 - 01/02/2018 12:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3044
Loc: Buderim
Rainfall last 48 months:



Rainfall for the prior 48 months which was the 15/16 el nino, and the previous year of borderline warm neutral/el nino



The difference for east Australia is pretty thin, although Western Australia has definitely done better over the last two years. West side means more likely Indian ocean related rather than Pacific related.

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#1451129 - 01/02/2018 12:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18365
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Yet the subsurface cool pool has pretty much disappeared


Bulldust !

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#1451131 - 01/02/2018 13:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18365
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
I should probably add too that the last map in BoM's sequence of 4 also shows the warm sub-surface anomalies in the west have subsided . This is often the case in their last map so it is quite plausible that those cool waters in the east are actually cooler than the -2 degs that is shown here over a vast area.

...and if people cannot see the difference in those two maps above then I believe Specsavers have a sale on at the moment. Most of Victoria and Tasmania and coastal NSW saw an almost total reversal for starters.
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#1451132 - 01/02/2018 13:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5159
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Yet the subsurface cool pool has pretty much disappeared


Bulldust !



We all know that different models / different sources can all show a range of information that does not always match. Just look at SSTs. Great to see other posts with alternative facts / maps / charts but no need to attack those that post other info; all that does is frighten people off posting, which is a loss for us all.

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#1451133 - 01/02/2018 13:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18365
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Posting info is one thing, but posting up a blatant fabrication of the truth to push an agenda is something entirely different. This obsession with warming has become beyond monotonous.

Where is his source for the claim the sub-surface cold pool has disappeared KevD?

2016-2017



Thin difference huh? There is more to Eastern Australia than Buderim.

2014-2015




Granted areas north of Mackay on the coast have done it tough and some areas inland however as previously pointed out, many areas received average rainfall in the past two years.

Enough with the agenda based tripe please !
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#1451136 - 01/02/2018 13:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3044
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Yet the subsurface cool pool has pretty much disappeared


Bulldust !



Combination of model output blended with TAO observations

Actual TAO observations obs:



And that is after some noticeable cooling again.

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#1451138 - 01/02/2018 13:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3044
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront


Thin difference huh? There is more to Eastern Australia than Buderim.



I posted nothing about Buderim. I posted a map showing all of Australia from Weipa to Hobart. Thin difference does not equal no difference.

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#1451141 - 01/02/2018 13:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18365
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Your map shows green shading (0 degs and above) from around 120 degs west all the way to the South American coastline ON THE SURFACE. Do you really think that is plausible Mike?



Edited by ColdFront (01/02/2018 13:48)
Edit Reason: added "on the surface"
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#1451142 - 01/02/2018 13:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3044
Loc: Buderim
Heat content for Equator:



Looks like the cool has pretty much disappeared there doesn't it?

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#1451143 - 01/02/2018 13:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18365
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
One of them has to be wrong?





These surface temps simply do not support your charts. Even NOAA's own surface anomalies map does not support your subsurface data at 100W


Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: ColdFront


Thin difference huh? There is more to Eastern Australia than Buderim.



I posted nothing about Buderim. I posted a map showing all of Australia from Weipa to Hobart. Thin difference does not equal no difference.


No but it is not even close to a thin difference in the lower 50% of "Eastern" Australia.
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#1451146 - 01/02/2018 14:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3044
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
One of them has to be wrong?


These surface temps simply do not support your charts. Even NOAA's own surface anomalies map does not support your subsurface data at 100W


Surface anomalies are not subsurface anomalies. The surface ic currently cool, and the subsurface is near normal.


Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


No but it is not even close to a thin difference in the lower 50% of "Eastern" Australia.


Lower 50% of eastern Australia is not Eastern Australia. You would be quite welcome to point to this difference. However making accusations such as

Quote:
blatant fabrication of the truth to push an agenda


Is simply poison.

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#1451147 - 01/02/2018 14:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18365
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


Surface anomalies are not subsurface anomalies.


Thanks for pointing out the bleeding obvious. Your map shows those subsurface anomalies reaching the surface west of 120W as I have already pointed out. It does not simply cut off 20 mtrs below the surface. So they are clearly wrong. Either that or all the maps that show 2 degs cold anomalies on the surface are wrong. Take your pick !

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


Quote:
blatant fabrication of the truth to push an agenda


Is simply poison.


Indeed it is and it killed the AGW threads. So why keep doing it here?

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


Lower 50% of eastern Australia is not Eastern Australia. You would be quite welcome to point to this difference.


I did, it is half of Eastern Australia, and you are still in denial. You can dance around it all you like but why not just address the elephant in the room. There is a blatantly obvious difference in those two maps.
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#1451152 - 01/02/2018 14:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3044
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


Surface anomalies are not subsurface anomalies.


Thanks for pointing out the bleeding obvious. Your map shows those subsurface anomalies reaching the surface west of 120W as I have already pointed out. It does not simply cut off 20 mtrs below the surface. So they are clearly wrong. Either that or all the maps that show 2 degs cold anomalies on the surface are wrong. Take your pick !



The temperature can change quickly near the surface and the TAO diagram is not designed to show what the temperature is at the surface. It still shows quite clearly that the surface is cool over roughly the same region as the surface SST maps you show.

And if one is wrong and one is right, why would it be the TAO is wrong and not the SST maps? The SST maps really only have two possible data sources - satellite obs and TAO obs (also ship obs but I'm pretty sure those are very sparse compared to TAO). I'd back a thermometer sitting in the water being measured against measurement of radiation as detected through kilometers of intervening air, haze and cloud.

Quote:
There is a blatantly obvious difference in those two maps.


The difference was blatantly obvious to me as well. I thought it was small enough to label as thin. You think it is too big too describe as thin. Disagreement is fine. Accusing me of fabricating data to push an agenda because you don't like the label I put on the difference is poisonous.

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#1451154 - 01/02/2018 15:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18365
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
It is your continued refusal to see what is right under your nose when pushing a warmist agenda that is poisonous.The difference in Vic , Tasmania and Coastal NSW is so far from thin it's not funny. They are close to being polar opposites.
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#1451155 - 01/02/2018 15:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18365
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
....and I'm not a fan off that Unysis map for reasons already stated but it is just one of several in disagreement with your source.
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