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#1451195 - 01/02/2018 19:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
You keep saying we're in a La-Nina state which is true (at least the Pacific still is) but nobody seems to want to have a go at WHY those areas that are normally affected the most, aren't, so far.

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#1451196 - 01/02/2018 19:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18549
Loc: The Beach.
Its already been discussed. It isn't strong enough to overcome the persistent ridging over Eastern Australia and troughing over the Coral Sea.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1451197 - 01/02/2018 19:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2609
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mega
I agree with you on that but what will the below rainfall anomalies through most of QLD and NSW be attributed to? Or do we just ignore that?


Whos ignoring it? Pretty sure Ive mentioned it nearly every time Ive talked about it. Im sure if we knew the reasons wed prob have an indicator or measure named after us - the Mega-Kino Index sounds fab. For me - its the lateness of the start that has hurt QLD, so far. Still holding out for a wet Feb to erase those anomalies. La Nia is an atmosphere primer - other events will still interact with that atmosphere and either enhance or restrict IMO e.g. that quidge has led to humid warm conditions along the coast thanks to more surface moisture but no mid or upper support thus trapping the moisture. The next week or so looks wetter because a colder airmass can interact with more moisture leading to showers etc.

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#1451198 - 01/02/2018 19:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18549
Loc: The Beach.
Late developing and weak. Biggest impact in October and no real surprise there. I am not sure why some are demanding it impact Nth East Australia now.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1451199 - 01/02/2018 19:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 690
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Quote:
Seems to be something else in play? Previous trades didn't really aide cooling hey. Some serious upwelling going on, and NCEP looks juicy. Hope to comes off, should be a big wet summer for eastern Aus, western Aus will be very hot and dry.
Your second post on this forum not to long ago Kino.

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#1451200 - 01/02/2018 19:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Late developing and weak. Biggest impact in October and no real surprise there. I am not sure why some are demanding it impact Nth East Australia now.


I noticed its biggest impact for us started in October as well and continued into November but then seemed to taper off during summer. What do you mean by your last sentence CF? Do you mean there's every chance it could just be late to arrive up north?

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#1451201 - 01/02/2018 19:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2609
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Quote:
Seems to be something else in play? Previous trades didn't really aide cooling hey. Some serious upwelling going on, and NCEP looks juicy. Hope to comes off, should be a big wet summer for eastern Aus, western Aus will be very hot and dry.
Your second post on this forum not to long ago Kino.


And your point? Or do you only come here to troll?

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#1451202 - 01/02/2018 19:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 202
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
MJO is atmospheric activity. The MJO index is a measure of this activity.

The MJO is the tendency of tropical convective activity to be focused in one area of the tropics, and for this area of focus to move eastwards over time due to atmospheric dynamics. This activity is then modified by SST infleunces, in particular ENSO, so if ENSO is suppressing tropical activity in a location the MJO will be weak or non-existent through that area.



Thanks for that - concise and dynamic definition.

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#1451203 - 01/02/2018 19:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18549
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Late developing and weak. Biggest impact in October and no real surprise there. I am not sure why some are demanding it impact Nth East Australia now.


I noticed its biggest impact for us started in October as well and continued into November but then seemed to taper off during summer. What do you mean by your last sentence CF? Do you mean there's every chance it could just be late to arrive up north?


No, I mean it may not have enough left in the tank to make a difference. They may have to rely on the law of averages to deliver some rainfall between now and the end of April.

Unless the events are strong they typically start with a big kick and then slowly taper off looking at previous seasons, but we should still have reasonable easterly flow, elongated highs and low pressure systems being slow moving across the Top End and well out into the CS. North Eastern Australia needs this Quidge to break down. It is an Autumn pattern and has no place in the middle of Summer.

_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1451204 - 01/02/2018 19:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 690
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Quote:
Seems to be something else in play? Previous trades didn't really aide cooling hey. Some serious upwelling going on, and NCEP looks juicy. Hope to comes off, should be a big wet summer for eastern Aus, western Aus will be very hot and dry.
Your second post on this forum not to long ago Kino.


And your point? Or do you only come here to troll?


Hahaha! Who's the one trolling?

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#1451205 - 01/02/2018 19:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Thanks CF.

I saw you mention Cape Town before - I've been following what's happening over there recently and yeah it looks BAD. Makes you wonder if something is up with the SH's pole or something. Summer snow in Tassy, etc etc. Definitely needs to be more study in those areas that aren't IOD or ENSO.

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#1451206 - 01/02/2018 19:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2609
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mega
Thanks CF.

I saw you mention Cape Town before - I've been following what's happening over there recently and yeah it looks BAD. Makes you wonder if something is up with the SH's pole or something. Summer snow in Tassy, etc etc. Definitely needs to be more study in those areas that aren't IOD or ENSO.


Im thinking its directky linked to that cold/very cold anomalies off Eastern Africa coast atm - assume theyd get usual moisture from easterly infeeds?

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#1451207 - 01/02/2018 19:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 441
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Originally Posted By: Kino

Im thinking its directky linked to that cold/very cold anomalies off Eastern Africa coast atm - assume theyd get usual moisture from easterly infeeds?

It won't be cold anomalies of the Eastern Africa coast, South-eastern section of the continent has been seeming to get good rainfall as off late but, the West Coast (where cape town is) is very dry though. So probably it is due to something going on in the South pole.

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#1451208 - 01/02/2018 19:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18549
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Quote:
Seems to be something else in play? Previous trades didn't really aide cooling hey. Some serious upwelling going on, and NCEP looks juicy. Hope to comes off, should be a big wet summer for eastern Aus, western Aus will be very hot and dry.
Your second post on this forum not to long ago Kino.


And your point? Or do you only come here to troll?


Hahaha! Who's the one trolling?


I read your post as baiting. On all the evidence it should not be so dry in Nth East Queensland through February, so he shouldn't be ridiculed for suggesting it would turn wet.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

Top
#1451210 - 01/02/2018 20:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2609
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
And then this looks set to happen...will erase those Jan anomalies in one fall...and start a return to a wetter period?

QLD is expected to FINALLY be given some relief from the heat with widespread SIGNIFICANT rainfall likely between February 2nd and 6th. For parts of Inland QLD, this could be the best 2-day rainfall in several years which may lead to some flash flooding, while for those in the Tropics is likely going to be significant to push some yearly totals towards the 1000mm mark after areas picked up 600-800mm for January already!!

Over the 2nd and 3rd of February, a surface trough and low pressure region are likely to develop over Inland QLD, with the surface trough also running through Central and Southern Coastal regions. This combination is likely to draw in VERY HIGH amounts of moisture into a warm and humid environment leading to rain areas and heavy storms developing.

Over the 48hrs...
50-100mm is likely over Central and parts of Southern Inland QLD, the Capricornia and Central Coast / Whitsundays. Isolated higher falls of 100mm+ are also likely within this area. This has the potential to produce flash flooding which may cut some roads, particularly over Inland regions.
Falls of 25mm+ are likely over the Wide Bay, Southern Inland, Central Inland and Northern Inland regions.

During February 4th to 6th, the system is expected to feed into the Northern Tropics where its likely to produce further moderate to high instability (as seen over the previous few weeks) leading to further heavy storms and rain areas. Daily totals could exceed 100mm for some areas but as a general overview...
Falls of 100-200mm are highly likely between Port Douglas and Ingham with the heaviest falls around Innisfail
Scattered to widespread falls of 50mm+ are likely from Townsville to North of Cooktown
Widespread falls of 25mm+ are likely to linger over Northern Inland and Central Coastal regions, whilst also impacting the Peninsula and remainder of the Tropics.



Edited by Kino (01/02/2018 20:06)

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#1451211 - 01/02/2018 20:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 690
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Yuk
Originally Posted By: Mega
But couldn't we spin the argument the other way and say that a big area where La-Nina is supposed to be felt the most hasn't seen the most impact so far?





Just sayin'.

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#1451212 - 01/02/2018 20:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3301
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino
But the rain that has fallen will be attributed to a La Nia. Simple as that.


Why can't the rain that fell be attributed to something else. Most of it fell in areas that aren't influenced by ENSO, and there are other things that influence our climate. Convective activity has been very active in Indian Ocean. The rain that has fallen has been obviously biased to the Indian Ocean side. Maybe the rain has something to do with what is happening in the Indian Ocean.

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#1451213 - 01/02/2018 21:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3301
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront


I read your post as baiting. On all the evidence it should not be so dry in Nth East Queensland through February, so he shouldn't be ridiculed for suggesting it would turn wet.


So simply pointing out that the prediction of someone you like went wrong is baiting. Whereas the abuse heaped with personal attacks and accusations of agendas and bias on predictions I have made and gone wrong is fair game?

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#1451214 - 01/02/2018 21:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2609
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
As far as I know, Summer is still not over. So, its not wrong as yet.

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#1451215 - 01/02/2018 21:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18549
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: ColdFront


I read your post as baiting. On all the evidence it should not be so dry in Nth East Queensland through February, so he shouldn't be ridiculed for suggesting it would turn wet.


So simply pointing out that the prediction of someone you like went wrong is baiting. Whereas the abuse heaped with personal attacks and accusations of agendas and bias on predictions I have made and gone wrong is fair game?


I hadn't seen that with any of your forecasts to be honest.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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