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#1451259 - 02/02/2018 08:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2032
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
I think they’re annual Pete they can’t be wet season only.

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#1451263 - 02/02/2018 08:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18394
Loc: Burnett Heads
They are annual.

Regarding the comment about Bundaberg region, it was drought declared until October like the rest of the South East. It doesn't change the maps regardless and simply serves to highlight how quickly things can change . We've had a metre of rain since then.

You can tell you haven't gazza 🤣
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#1451266 - 02/02/2018 09:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5168
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
States on the maps that Mick linked to "This map compares the rainfall received since the start of the current Northern Wet Season with the long-term average for the entire season (October to April)." Does not state that on the deciles, so the deciles are just for the period detailed but the other two run to end of April...which is traditionally a wet time along the east coast so going to show much lower percentages.

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#1451267 - 02/02/2018 09:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18394
Loc: Burnett Heads
Mick's maps are October to April . You know something's up when Broome leads the charge smile

Maybe Townsville is just cursed.

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"Don't steal. The government hates competition."

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#1451268 - 02/02/2018 09:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25266
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
so the maps i was view are giving mean data for the entire seasonal period until April hence the lower figures yet calculating the rainfall total only up until 1 February?
i assumed it was taking the wet season mean rainfall from 1 October to 1 February. Apologies for any confusing if i was mistaken.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
March 2018 total - 296mm (194mm)
April 2018 total - 12.4mm (66mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 794.4mm (1107mm)

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#1451269 - 02/02/2018 09:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mick10]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18394
Loc: Burnett Heads
Originally Posted By: Mick10
so the maps i was view are giving mean data for the entire seasonal period until April hence the lower figures yet calculating the rainfall total only up until 1 February?


Correct. They are showing the deficiency remaining until the end of April. How much rain you would need by the end of April to abolish the indicated shortfall.
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#1451305 - 02/02/2018 16:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3059
Loc: Buderim
Major westerlies now for day 1-5 of forecast.


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#1451318 - 02/02/2018 16:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6928
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Curious to know why you used the 850 hPa winds, not the surface Mike? - nothing behind this question.

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#1451332 - 02/02/2018 18:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 159
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: ColdFront


He was referring to Kino. It's not that your predictions went wrong. Many others have also. It's how you chose to deal with it . In fact you're still doing it 6 months on.


That is not an excuse for the number of personal attacks and insults you direct at me. Most other members of this forum are decent enough to disagree with me without the abuse. This forum would be a much nicer place if you did the same.

And your regular distortions of what I say:

Quote:
I've seen heaps of discussion from many members prepared to accept that there were flaws in certain parts of all models over the years, but not you. EC is always right and the rest are wrong despite it being pointed out to you countless times by other members that it kept reacting to input change throughout last year.


I accept there are flaws. How could I not when I've been arguing for more warming than the models have been predicting? EC is not always right, and the rest are not always wrong. However EC has the best verification stats according to the latest research I have seen (which is 5 years old so if anyone knows of anything more recent..)

edit: and as for the way I deal with it: I actually admit I made a mistake. You might not like that I try and minimise it when I can, and to point to things that I did say that were right. But at least I don't accuse the person who pointed out I was wrong of being a troll.


insults only turn people away from reading the posts which is counter-productive since the complaint is often about the lack of proper attention to what they say. the views of anyone reverting to this sort of tactic, unfortunately, is bound to be regarded as suss

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#1451333 - 02/02/2018 18:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3059
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Petros
Curious to know why you used the 850 hPa winds, not the surface Mike? - nothing behind this question.


Surface anomalies aren't available - at least on that site or the ones I know about. Generally surface winds are similar to 850hp, but there are differences at times.

Some of the impact of trade winds is changes in currents, and I can't think of any reason why it would be anything but 100% surface level winds impacting currents. But a lot of it is evaporation, and I think trade winds throughout the lower level would be relevant to evaporation - faster trade winds just above the surface would mean more mixing of drier air from above the saturated layer directly at the surface of the ocean. Although I wouldn't know if the relevant layer would extend as high as 850hp. My gut feel is that maybe 950hp or so would be best level to judge evaporation effect. Presumably the experts that routinely include 850hp winds in their trade wind forecasts when discussing ENSO do so for a reason.

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#1451335 - 02/02/2018 18:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18394
Loc: Burnett Heads
Snowbooby the information I provided to counter certain wild claims is straight off the BoM and Long Paddock websites. If you think it is suss you should contact them rather than doing the very thing you are accusing others of.

Blind Freddy could see the difference in those maps.

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"Don't steal. The government hates competition."

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#1451337 - 02/02/2018 18:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 159
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Petros
Curious to know why you used the 850 hPa winds, not the surface Mike? - nothing behind this question.


Surface anomalies aren't available - at least on that site or the ones I know about. Generally surface winds are similar to 850hp, but there are differences at times.

Some of the impact of trade winds is changes in currents, and I can't think of any reason why it would be anything but 100% surface level winds impacting currents. But a lot of it is evaporation, and I think trade winds throughout the lower level would be relevant to evaporation - faster trade winds just above the surface would mean more mixing of drier air from above the saturated layer directly at the surface of the ocean. Although I wouldn't know if the relevant layer would extend as high as 850hp. My gut feel is that maybe 950hp or so would be best level to judge evaporation effect. Presumably the experts that routinely include 850hp winds in their trade wind forecasts when discussing ENSO do so for a reason.


I'm sure this question was asked many weeks ago and the suggestion was 850hpa reading generally to avoid boundary layer/friction effect

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#1451338 - 02/02/2018 18:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 159
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Snowbooby the information I provided to counter certain wild claims is straight off the BoM and Long Paddock websites. If you think it is suss you should contact them rather than doing the very thing you are accusing others of.

Blind Freddy could see the difference in those maps.



I didn't have you in mind on this occasion - I included "unfortunately" because there is probably something in the views of people who use insult, but human nature as it is, the insulted are inclined to avoid giving those views the attention they probably deserve

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#1451348 - 02/02/2018 19:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3059
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Snowbooby the information I provided to counter certain wild claims is straight off the BoM and Long Paddock websites.



The insults and abuse you direct at others is not straight from BoM or Long Paddock.

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#1451351 - 02/02/2018 19:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18394
Loc: Burnett Heads
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Snowbooby the information I provided to counter certain wild claims is straight off the BoM and Long Paddock websites.



The insults and abuse you direct at others is not straight from BoM or Long Paddock.


Neither is your inability to acknowledge that Eastern Australia is bigger than Buderim. You're always the victim. It's easier than addressing the evidence presented against your claim that all of Eastern Australia has has a dry summer. Divert all you like Mike.
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#1451352 - 02/02/2018 20:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Barronriver Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 07/02/2015
Posts: 22
Loc: Kuranda
Where are the moderators? I've had enough of this tit for tat stuff.

Usually this forum is a great source of info - including varying opinions on what is or isn't going to / or is happening.

If you are going to have a go at each other, may I suggest you send personal mails rather than airing your disagreement in public. Sorry ... but for me ... it's totally inappropriate.

Would love this thread to get back on topic.

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#1451356 - 02/02/2018 20:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: snowbooby]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18394
Loc: Burnett Heads
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Snowbooby the information I provided to counter certain wild claims is straight off the BoM and Long Paddock websites. If you think it is suss you should contact them rather than doing the very thing you are accusing others of.

Blind Freddy could see the difference in those maps.



I didn't have you in mind on this occasion - I included "unfortunately" because there is probably something in the views of people who use insult, but human nature as it is, the insulted are inclined to avoid giving those views the attention they probably deserve


There were only two people in your quote, though you are right. It doesn't help. I have decided to opt for the ignore option for the sake of others. There is far more to ENSO than WWB's and just warming and I'll engage in discussion with those that recognise as much.

On the actual topic it seems the Quidge isn't planning to go away anytime soon if the models are to believed .EC barely moves it over 10 days . It is drizzly and just 21 degs at home. Quite bizarre for the first week of February.
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#1451358 - 02/02/2018 21:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18394
Loc: Burnett Heads
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
I should probably add too that the last map in BoM's sequence of 4 also shows the warm sub-surface anomalies in the west have subsided . This is often the case in their last map so it is quite plausible that those cool waters in the east are actually cooler than the -2 degs that is shown here over a vast area.

...and if people cannot see the difference in those two maps above then I believe Specsavers have a sale on at the moment. Most of Victoria and Tasmania and coastal NSW saw an almost total reversal for starters.


I probably should have posted up this full image initially to better explain what I was alluding to. This has been observed numerous times over the years with the last of the 4 sequences where it appears to be washed out. Given the passage of the MJO you'd expect there would be a reinforcement of the warm anomalies in the western subsurface, not the erosion shown here.

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"Don't steal. The government hates competition."

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#1451368 - 02/02/2018 23:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1787
Loc: Kingaroy
CFS is going for more cooling again in it's current runs, it appears La Nina could be putting up a fight.

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#1451404 - 03/02/2018 12:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6928
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Re 850 hPa - thanks Mike and SB.

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