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#1451819 - 07/02/2018 10:03 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6778
That is interesting Knot, I could definitely see myself using that more. I notice that at 12:15 the sun is directly above (if I'm interpreting it correctly) but slightly to the north which would make sense.

Yeah only got to 18.3įC which I find surprising given that the humidity was in the 80's. It might have been cloudy last night. Albion Park is my go to because the climate there and here are quite similar becuase we are also a bit away from the coast.
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1451822 - 07/02/2018 10:48 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10130
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
I don't overly enjoy the prospect of every day being 30 degrees or above for the next week.

Luckily nights still not too bad.

Looks a little more like patterns may start to change a little around the 20th or thereabouts as mentioned by others before.

No real precip in sight out here in the next 10 days or so.

Maybe I can hope for a damper March - might be wishful thinking but fingers crossed.

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#1451830 - 07/02/2018 12:09 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
GringosRain Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1552
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
The lower pressure down the coast seems to be lingering in the models as noted. The ridge is still there too, but the inland trough seems to be more along the ranges (ridge weaker and further east). I suspect there is some movement of the jetstream in the uppers too with higher shear around which should help things, though I cant see beyond the 7 day mark. Its just been upper high after upper high, so some upper cold features would really help.

Nothing proper lands inside the the 7 days forecast window (it always fizzles or pushes out)....so until it does its probably all still wishful thinking. If in 5 or 6 days time the event is holding, maybe we are onto something.

Further out there looks like a big MJO pulse that will dip far south across the continent from the 2nd week of March. Should bring floods with it right!!!

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#1451831 - 07/02/2018 12:11 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
@WR 12.15 un adjusted for DST. An angle of 70.77 degrees. And just a smidge west of North. So good one dude. If you could get up to say Cooktown by 12.30 qld time the sun will be much higher at around 89 degrees.


Edited by Knot (07/02/2018 12:16)
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#1451832 - 07/02/2018 13:18 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Meanwhile right about now the sun is at its highest point in sky here. A few degrees higher in sky than at Albion Park. About the same position in relation to North though.

Not too hot here. Light eastish wind. Dryy dry dry





Edited by Knot (07/02/2018 13:19)
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#1451833 - 07/02/2018 13:59 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6778
Hmmm 28įC at Norah Head right now, a bit sus I think. Do you have temp recordings at Toronto Knot? I reckon it would be less than 28 there too as Gosford is only 26. Damn rocky outcrops!! poke

Even Bellambi's 26įC is pretty impressive given that this airmass is not a hot one. The ocean must be toasty. But I think 28 is pushing it as per Norah Head.


Edited by Wave Rider (07/02/2018 13:59)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1451838 - 07/02/2018 15:43 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Don't have my own pws WR. As far as aws go that prob capture Toronto temps, I would lean towards Nobby in an E/NE as the wind blows un impeded from the east side. Maybe add a degree or 2.On a hot day which typically means a NW I would lean towards Lake Mac at Cooranbong. Perhaps Williamtown or Tocal. Cessnock isnt too far away as crow flies. In a NW bakeoff Cessnock is cooking on a par with other sites I mentioned. Lake Mac was around 45 along with Cessnock during the scorcher of Jan 18 2013. Tocal and Williamtown not much less. So get a good idea of Toronto temps in most conditions.


Edited by Knot (07/02/2018 15:48)
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#1451839 - 07/02/2018 16:21 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W


Edited by Knot (07/02/2018 16:23)
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#1451840 - 07/02/2018 17:09 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Knot]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4096
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Isn't that hot water headed South? Looks like some upwelling near Eden and especially East Gippsland. MHL shows sea temps off Sydney at about 24, although upwelling might occur here if that NE'er keeps up.

-----
Pretty much a photocopy of yesterday, although the sea breeze is a bit stronger. Last night was back up to 20 degrees. It reached about 27-30 across most of Sydney, up to 34 at Penrith, a particular hotspot.

Not sure which official station best represents my part of Sydney. For maxima probably OH in a Southerly or SE'er, Sydney Airport in a NE'er, which covers about 90% of Sydney Summer days. In a Westerly, maybe Olymic Park Canterbury. I don't think it's as hot here as the Airport and we don't get the marginal sea breezes which nearly always reach OH. Alternatively, maybe Terrey Hills in all conditions, adding about 0.6 for lower elevation.

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#1451842 - 07/02/2018 17:20 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Kind of looked like the cooler water closer to coast was further north to me than when I had a peek a week ago Steve. The tip of the area of real warm water might be a bit little further south though I guess.
Interesting stuff about which aws might represent the area where zoners live the best.


Edited by Knot (07/02/2018 17:25)
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#1451846 - 07/02/2018 18:37 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6778
I went for a surf earlier this arvo and the water was very nice, I would about that 24įC mark that Steve mentioned. Was not cold at all, could've stayed in for hours but I only caught a few messy waves and I was out of there. Not bad size though, about 2-3ft, I was expecting less than 1ft with the mundane weather patterns lately. Will have to look into that, maybe there's a pulse of surf originating from somewhere. I don't think it was NE windswell.

Ah ha, a small pulse of southerly swell came up earlier today according to swellnet.


Edited by Wave Rider (07/02/2018 18:42)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1451850 - 07/02/2018 19:55 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1949
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
The eddies have not been kind for most of the NSW coast this Summer. If you look at the history on the IMOS website you can see that the warm East Australia Current has been steered towards NZ. Basically robbing the coast of warmth from the Hunter southwards.

Manly Hydraulics bouys now 'seem' to show a more normal pattern with some typical SSTs of late. Time will tell if another Evil Eddy appears.

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#1451858 - 07/02/2018 20:49 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 895
Loc: Cammeray
I can say that the water here in Mollymook is the warmest Iíve ever experienced here (been coming here more than 20 years though the first 10 were school holidays which means earlier in summer). Usually there is some sort of a cool shock but itís astonishing how warm it is - itís warmer than the last time I surfed in Sydney about a fortnight ago.


Edited by Jimi (07/02/2018 20:49)

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#1451863 - 07/02/2018 21:39 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Jimi]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6778
Originally Posted By: Jimi
I can say that the water here in Mollymook is the warmest Iíve ever experienced here (been coming here more than 20 years though the first 10 were school holidays which means earlier in summer). Usually there is some sort of a cool shock but itís astonishing how warm it is - itís warmer than the last time I surfed in Sydney about a fortnight ago.


Yeah no initial cold shock here either for the first time this summer. I've noticed most the time the water doesn't get warm til Feb anyway so no too unusual. Meanwhile December is always a little on the chilly side.


Edited by Wave Rider (07/02/2018 21:40)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

Top
#1451877 - 08/02/2018 06:44 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Synoptic looks so uninspiring as far as prospect of inclement weather goes.


Edited by Knot (08/02/2018 06:45)
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#1451885 - 08/02/2018 09:10 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Jimi]
Dipole Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/01/2013
Posts: 338
Loc: Hervey Bay 48m,Tuross Head
Yes, Tuross has been warm all January and February so far, as you say, no cold shock, warmer still on the outflow of the lake towards low tide.
A very pleasant summer swim.

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#1451893 - 08/02/2018 10:35 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Pickle Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 10/01/2018
Posts: 40
Loc: Bonnells Bay, NSW
Here's hoping we get some rain this weekend. The Weatherzone thunderstorm outlook is indicating potential storms from Friday through to Sunday.

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#1451895 - 08/02/2018 11:06 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4743
Here's hoping they do Pickle, but will probably be more confined to the ranges, Sunday might be our best chance.

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#1451897 - 08/02/2018 11:46 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10130
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Aaah - hey KIZZ "Evil Eddy" has reappeared - he posted above me grin

Bit warm again today.

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#1451899 - 08/02/2018 11:55 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6778
Hahaha Dave, yes indeed he has.

Well look at that, it has just ticked into the 30's which is the first 30 degree day since January 23rd. It does feel pretty warm out there but quite nice with the lowish humidity. I suspect the NEer will be here soon.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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