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#1452051 - 09/02/2018 20:21 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10419
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
GFS has been interested in producing some early morning / morning thunderstorms tomorrow on the northern MNC. ACCESS-R showing a mild interest. EC has nothing happening though. I guess we'll see what ends up happening.
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South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
September 2018 Rainfall: 77.6mm (September Avg. 55.9mm) // September 2018 Raindays: 13 (September Avg. 8.3 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1078.6mm (Jan-Sep Avg. 1150.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 95 (Jan-Sep Avg. 101.8 raindays)

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#1452062 - 09/02/2018 21:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5047
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
GFS has been interested in producing some early morning / morning thunderstorms tomorrow on the northern MNC. ACCESS-R showing a mild interest. EC has nothing happening though. I guess we'll see what ends up happening.


Looking at the radar, you could have some storms around midnight if it holds!!
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Rainfall
MTD - 44.4mm
YTD - 875.9mm
https://www.instagram.com/eddygroot/

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#1452066 - 09/02/2018 22:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 776
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
The weak southerly that moved through central parts this afternoon brought with it some storm activity and peter's out as it travels north. In the past, southerly changes seemed to be much more common even throughout summer and were quite strong, known in those days as southerly busters and they always brought with them wild weather, all the way from south up into Queensland. Nowadays we seem to have fewer cold fronts even in spring when in the past it was not uncommon to get a southerly change every couple of days. I'm talking about 20/30 years ago.

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#1452068 - 09/02/2018 23:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5303
I still have fond memories of just how frequent cold and strong westerly/southwesterly blasts used to be in winter here. Not to mention how common it used to be for cold fronts to penetrate well up into QLD, accompanied by big rainbands sweeping across the state. They were good times that's for sure.

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#1452075 - 10/02/2018 08:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1546
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
I'll second that ken. I remember even in winter to that we would get very heavy frontal rain followed by that sharp crisp clearance followed by cold westerlies.
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If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1452080 - 10/02/2018 08:55 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5303
Looks like the majority of activity today will initiate over higher ground a bit inland of the coast in NE NSW and possibly SE QLD before being steered north-northeastwards (for the non-severe stuff).

On one hand, you have the capping near the coast, marginal instability and marginal moisture but on the other hand, the SSW steering winds aloft are reasonably strong so they could try to advect some of the activity closer towards parts of the coast.

Strong shear + marginal instability + dry'ish low levels = any storms that do form in the above areas could be gusty.

So all in all, I'd say reasonable chance for the northern NSW tablelands and possibly inland SE QLD and outside chance for coastal parts in the south.





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#1452100 - 10/02/2018 15:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10419
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
1.8mm from some early morning rain. A little distant thunder was heard. There was occasional lightning spotted to the west and northwest. A storm that moved through parts of the Nambucca and Bellinger Valleys early this morning might've woken Kev up.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
September 2018 Rainfall: 77.6mm (September Avg. 55.9mm) // September 2018 Raindays: 13 (September Avg. 8.3 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1078.6mm (Jan-Sep Avg. 1150.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 95 (Jan-Sep Avg. 101.8 raindays)

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#1452101 - 10/02/2018 15:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3429
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
The 7 day baking session has commenced, 36.5C atm & rising!

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#1452114 - 10/02/2018 17:57 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4681
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth Sat max 30.2C.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep30.2(32)YTD717.6(833.8),

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#1452116 - 10/02/2018 18:13 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 776
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Nothing dramatic down here today but nice to hear some faint rumbles from an appealing looking storm just off the coast.

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#1452117 - 10/02/2018 18:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3429
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
37.2C Max today.

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#1452118 - 10/02/2018 18:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5303
Just about on my doorstep now. Image via Weatherzone:



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#1452127 - 10/02/2018 21:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
seaweed Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/10/2001
Posts: 1561
Loc: Robina SEQ
Had a sprinkle of rain late in the afternoon. There must of been some strong upper winds because I went outside and it was all blue sky above the house. Any possible rain clouds were some distance away.

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#1452147 - 11/02/2018 08:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5303
The lightning was pretty spectacular here yesterday evening. Big bright bolts. A brief burst of heavy rainfall also.

Southern (and possibly inland parts) of SE QLD look good for showers & storms later today... NE NSW in particular. Might not be til fairly late though.
Could be some localised strong gusty winds with them as well.

Somewhat similar to yesterday with reasonable S to SW steering winds, marginal moisture away from those southern & inland areas and capping near the coast.

Also looking like close to, or above 40C for inland places such as Gatton... mid to high 30's for many other places away from the coastline... and low to mid 30's near the coastal fringe.

The wet signal for later this month over some sections of eastern Australia also still appearing in some ensembles as well. I'll believe it when I see it though.






Edited by Ken Kato (11/02/2018 08:35)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1452148 - 11/02/2018 08:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4681
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 0.4mm, from ex TS that died in 5 minutes about 5km away.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep30.2(32)YTD717.6(833.8),

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#1452156 - 11/02/2018 10:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 776
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Thanks Ken, could be worthwhile later, hope so. I know we need the rain bad but I"m more than happy watching cumulonimbus develop and listening to the sound of thunder.

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#1452164 - 11/02/2018 11:40 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 442
Loc: Salisbury
0.7mm for Salisbury from yesterday afternoons activity...i was out at Ipswich at the Hotter then Hell concert in a marquee when it passed through, we didn't even realise it was raining outside until the band onstage mentioned it. Was much nicer / cooler once that passed through, no longer had sweat dripping off me....lol.

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#1452165 - 11/02/2018 11:40 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3429
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
33.7C & 46% RH atm, definitely knocking at 40C or above today. Hoping for a bit of stormage later.

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#1452179 - 11/02/2018 14:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Whisper Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 196
Loc: Gympie
35C in Gympie now at 1pm

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#1452196 - 11/02/2018 16:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4681
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth Sun Max temp 31.9C.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep30.2(32)YTD717.6(833.8),

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