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#1452264 - 12/02/2018 00:07 SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10419
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Thread for the current heat and storms. I will move posts over to this thread from the day-to-day thread.






Edit: Posts have now been moved from the day-to-day thread and into here (had to done one-by-one). Cheers and nice pics too!


Edited by Seabreeze (16/02/2018 21:15)
Edit Reason: extended by a day
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
September 2018 Rainfall: 77.6mm (September Avg. 55.9mm) // September 2018 Raindays: 13 (September Avg. 8.3 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1078.6mm (Jan-Sep Avg. 1150.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 95 (Jan-Sep Avg. 101.8 raindays)

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#1452268 - 12/02/2018 03:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 571
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
Strong coloured Set from backyard yesty arv,
,


Then followed by extensive close Crawlers ,
,

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Weather or not ?

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#1452269 - 12/02/2018 06:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1531
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
Thread for the current heat and storms. I will move posts over to this thread from the day-to-day thread.






Edit: Posts have now been moved from the day-to-day thread and into here (had to done one-by-one). Cheers and nice pics too!

Thanks Seabreeze !!

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#1452270 - 12/02/2018 06:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1531
Loc: Australia
Wow PlumbBob amazing

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#1452271 - 12/02/2018 06:57 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1531
Loc: Australia
Awesome shots George

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#1452272 - 12/02/2018 06:59 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Namarrkun]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1531
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Namarrkun
Couple pics i snapped on my tablet as the storm arrived here at Salisbury...the wind as the storm hit was fantastic for blowing the hot air out of our house, had just over 10mm so far and still falling.










Awesome Cloud structure, well done


Edited by gleno71 (12/02/2018 07:00)

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#1452278 - 12/02/2018 08:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5303
Originally Posted By: whynot
Just having a second look at the CAPE and LI for this afternoon. They certainly were juicy enough, but there was a significant CAP that one would have expected to keep a lid on things near the coast. That said, it is always on the cards on a very hot day for the CAP to break, and it looks like that what happened today.


I think people make too much of the cap - it's not the be-all and end-all. We have countless times when there's sizeable capping near the coast but when steering winds aloft are strong, they advect strong storms into that environment and they either erode the cap or ride over the top of it and survive for awhile due to their existing intensity. Happens all the time (provided the steering winds are strong, conditions just inland are favourable and the cap isn't TOO enormous).

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#1452279 - 12/02/2018 08:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2118
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Great shots guys.

Today is going to be very interesting to watch and a good learning experience. On the surface it looks extremely similar to yesterday's setup, but there are a few fine differences which might affect the location and severity of storms.

* Today's CAP seems stronger along the coast. As Ken said though with steering quite strong that might not be a big issue.
* Winds are northerly at 850 compared to southerly yesterday. This means we now have a full 180 degrees of turning with height.
* Mid-levels around the 500 are a little warmer today and uppers slightly warmer.
* Surface temps could get hotter than yesterday (40+) in the Brisbane Valley.
* Some patchy mid/high cloud drifting across SEQ for most of the day

It'll be good to compare the outcome of today to yesterday and see how those small differences did/didn't affect storms.

Like yesterday GFS and Access-R are not keen on much at all. EC has patchy activity starting early afternoon and continuing throughout.

I think today is our last chance for coastal centred activity before the inland show begins in the next few days and we are relying on steering.


Edited by Nature's Fury (12/02/2018 08:44)

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#1452282 - 12/02/2018 08:48 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 776
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
N.E. NSW got affected by what looked like outflow from the storms that built up inland and charging up into S.E.Qld.It was just an overcast wish wash down here but we still got some nice lightning off the coast. What is going to be the hotshot of activity today we wonder. Access R doesn't look too exciting.

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#1452283 - 12/02/2018 08:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 776
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Good summary thanks for your thoughts NF

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#1452285 - 12/02/2018 08:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4681
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 21.4mm. Max wind E 62kph at 1955, which was well after the storm passed. An earlier gust of 59kph from the W during the storm itself at 1831.
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Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep30.2(32)YTD717.6(833.8),

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#1452286 - 12/02/2018 08:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5303
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Looking at the GFS modelling and soundings I'm also interested how we had the storms in the first place. There was good CAPE (1500+), strengthening seabreeze in the afternoon with 10-15 kts in surface up to 950, good steering from the S/SW at the mid-levels and pretty steep lapse rates particularly in the mid-uppers. Despite that, I would have thought that the poor moisture and sluggish steering would have ruined storm chances?
Very interested to hear Ken's and other's thoughts on this.


I'd probably echo what I just replied to whynot with. That is, "I think people make too much of the cap - it's not the be-all and end-all. We have countless times when there's sizeable capping near the coast but when steering winds aloft are strong, they advect strong storms into that environment and they either erode the cap or ride over the top of it and survive for awhile due to their existing intensity. Happens all the time here (provided the steering winds are strong, conditions just inland are favourable and the cap isn't TOO enormous)."

In yesterday's case, steering wasn't too bad... around 25kt at 600hpa (I've always used winds at that height for steering and it's usually very reliable for "typical" size storms here) which is more than enough to advect storms into the capped environment near the coast.

Dewpoints near the coast were also close to 20C and a bit above so I'm inclined to think that all the outflows from the storms and mixing also helped to churn up the high dewpoint air near the surface and get ingested by the storms, hence the classic shelf clouds/low ragged bases appearance they took on as they got closer to the coast.

There was also a lobe of cooler air aloft which moved across the region which wouldn't have hurt.

Also, storms moved into the environment near the coast which were dominated by low level northeasterlies (undercutting the SW'lies above) which would've increased the shear for them as the storms encountered the seabreeze front.

P.S. Oh and dry low levels (even if the near-surface air has high DP's) are always a red flag for potential strong wind gusts with storms due to the evaporative cooling and downward acceleration of the precip-filled air,


Anyway here's the latest output for today:







Edited by Ken Kato (12/02/2018 09:02)

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#1452288 - 12/02/2018 09:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 442
Loc: Salisbury
Originally Posted By: gleno71



Awesome Cloud structure, well done
cheers Gleno...those 3 pics are in order of the storms arrival at my place, the 90kph winds that hit Archerfield just down the road hit here after that last pic was taken. I was in awe standing on the front verandah watching the clouds strutuce constantly changing, was an awesome show to watch.

Great pics as usual also everyone else

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#1452294 - 12/02/2018 09:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
chamellieon Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/12/2010
Posts: 111
Loc: Brisbane North East
Got absolutely smashed out at Moggill.
I got to the storm about 5mins before it started raining... and then the tree branches and leaves were everywhere... very dangerous driving through it.
Having troubles showing this correctly in the thead...
Pic of the shelf cloud:
[img]https://scontent-syd2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t...ec9&oe=5B18C2DC[/img]
_________________________
I love bad weather!
www.melsinclair.com.au
Landscape Photography in Australia and around the World!

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#1452298 - 12/02/2018 09:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3429
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Great pics everyone, thanks for posting.
30C atm, before 9am.

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#1452309 - 12/02/2018 11:15 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7123
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Going by obs, the outflow boundary from yesterday's storms reached as far north as Rocky early this morning (5am). Incredible. Here it is pushing through the Fraser Coast last night (you can also see the seabreeze from the beginning of the loop): http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR08I-gympie/2018-02-11-00/2018-02-12-00

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#1452310 - 12/02/2018 11:17 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
LDRcycles Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/03/2017
Posts: 46
Loc: Kin Kin, Qld
Accidentally posted in the wrong thread last night, I can easily blame exhaustion though!

Monster storm here, had a beautiful shelf cloud in front of it (wasn't able to get a photo unfortunately) and then a total whiteout with very strong wind. Luckily no damage to our house but the shed roof was threatening to come off, and our steel gate got blown off it's hinges. Trees down everywhere, had to cut my way out of my road to start working on a huge one down on a main road until the fireys arrived to finish the job. 3+hrs I was going flat out, I can barely walk today.

[img]https://scontent-syd2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t...2a3&oe=5B227DD3[/img]

[img]https://scontent-syd2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t...316&oe=5B1B355E[/img]

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#1452313 - 12/02/2018 11:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
whynot Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/10/2001
Posts: 539
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato


I think people make too much of the cap - it's not the be-all and end-all.


Shrug. At my level of (low) competence in weather forecasting, looking at the CAP serves as a good rule of thumb when making operational decisions. (In my past life of running a Control Room, one really doesn’t have time to be mucking around with multiple computer models. Have a quick look, make a call, and then take what comes…) I have seen plenty thunderstorms come raging in, only to be cut to shreds by the strong capping layer near the coast.

The point that I was trying to make is that the numerical model that I looked at yesterday afternoon (GFS) had a very strong CIN of 206 j/kg (from memory) over metropolitan Brisbane. What made yesterday so interesting is how the storms interacted with the sea breeze front to override the CAP, which was probably weaker than forecast.

Yesterday just confirms the old storm chasing lore around Brisbane; the best storm days are the ones you don’t expect to eventuate.

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#1452314 - 12/02/2018 11:40 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
bber36 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/01/2011
Posts: 103
Loc: Albany Creek Qld
Very strong wind at Albany Creek and lost power which was finally restored at 3.30am this morning.

My sister was extremely lucky as she was driving in Arana Hills and a large tree fell right in front of her. Managed to slam on the brakes and avoid hitting it but still got rear ended by the car behind.
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The village called......they want their idiot back

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#1452316 - 12/02/2018 11:52 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Heat & Scattered Thunderstorms - 10th to 17th Feb 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1023
Loc: Warwick, QLD
1.3mm here yesterday. All action north and east of here. Glad to see a bit of temporary heat relief for most of us however.
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Michael - your eyes to the west.

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