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#1447509 - 05/01/2018 23:39 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 983
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
I think the rain is from thunderstorms on the Thursday afternoon
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#1447521 - 06/01/2018 08:02 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6267
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
The rain on that run 00z ACC is progged to fall after 11pm , point was its suggesting a different type of airmass to the current dry fest.
12z GFS has the somewhere in between scenario, a hot Friday though with some showers storms around the state in the day before a big explosion in central parts Friday evening.
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#1449384 - 19/01/2018 23:08 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 983
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
I don't normally post updates this far in advance but I think this needs to be brought up, largely due to the strong agreement amount the 3 major models ACCESS, GFS and EC - pointing to a very significant heat event over the Australia day long weekend.

This is what the latest ACCESS has to say

The current models are pointing to a change pushing through Monday. Based on the current guidance the majority of the state including Melbourne and Coastal areas pushing up to 4 days in the 40's.


Of course this change but this needs to be watched.


Edited by logansi (19/01/2018 23:14)
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#1449432 - 20/01/2018 13:24 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 983
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Storm Forcast for today:

Isolated high-based showers are possible over much of Victoria this afternoon and evening. There is a small chance of damaging wind gusts, particularly in the west of the State.



For once lets hope these storms don't fire - they will be dry and cause more fires.
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#1449480 - 20/01/2018 20:37 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6788
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
...well that was wrong for N Central Gippsland, we had 2 weak/high based storms brew up here this arvo.

Looking at the models for next 7 days or more, seems like a ground hog repeat of the current synoptic?:



Persistent humidity from the NE, storms possible in many regions each day, partly cloudy, lower bushfire threat, lower electricity power blackout threat?

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#1452383 - 12/02/2018 18:49 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6788
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Despite Australia being between a pair of concurrent cyclones soon, looks to be no significant rain for Vic over the next 8 days?:



But good news is no low humidity windy heatwaves either.....

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