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#1452340 - 12/02/2018 15:49 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Looks like the Pilbara at the moment... glad for it to slide by looking at modelled intensity....

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#1452343 - 12/02/2018 16:05 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Sepo]
Delta-T Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 35
Loc: Peachester
Hell of a forcast...

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#1452344 - 12/02/2018 16:08 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Delta-T Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 35
Loc: Peachester
...Queensland actually gets a cyclone. Did you spot it?

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#1452353 - 12/02/2018 16:47 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
I think its a low that then forms into s cyclone when it crosses the top end and into WA😁

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#1452385 - 12/02/2018 19:17 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah even EC is cranking the intensity now. I think 930hPa down around Degrey/Pardoo area. No doubt a bit will change but wild weather ahead and to think that GOC might be the next one to cruise on over. haha WA magnet this year.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1452550 - 13/02/2018 19:57 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Looking pretty gnarly for Pardoo to Hedland now....

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#1452610 - 14/02/2018 02:58 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3770
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Broome Airport is already sitting on its 8th wettest year on record. Another 250mm over the next week (by no means beyond the realm of possibility) would be enough to lift it to 3rd.

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#1452629 - 14/02/2018 09:29 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Delta-T]
croc crew Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2007
Posts: 187
Loc: Maningrida, Arnhem Land, NT
I reckon that Low in the GOC has been put in with Photoshop.

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#1452645 - 14/02/2018 12:10 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Blair Trewin]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
Broome Airport is already sitting on its 8th wettest year on record. Another 250mm over the next week (by no means beyond the realm of possibility) would be enough to lift it to 3rd.

Thanks for that stat there Blair. It has definitely been an amazing season to date. One system after the other with more to come by the looks. Not as many individual storms adding to the total just big events ticking the totals over. To think that so many of those storms have just missed us aswell. Cheers
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#1452649 - 14/02/2018 12:50 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Started a new thread for this system here http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1452648#Post1452648. It might flush out a few of the Pilbara crew on here as it looks like it might menace that area down the track.
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#1452753 - 14/02/2018 21:00 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: croc crew]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 440
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: croc crew
I reckon that Low in the GOC has been put in with Photoshop.

Yea no low mentioned on Latest Colour Mean Sea-Level Pressure Analysis on BOM.

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#1452813 - 15/02/2018 12:39 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Red Watch]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 440
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: Red Watch
Originally Posted By: croc crew
I reckon that Low in the GOC has been put in with Photoshop.

Yea no low mentioned on Latest Colour Mean Sea-Level Pressure Analysis on BOM.

Sorry didn't realise that was Feb 21st forecast, but now GFS puts a low/cyclone further east in the Coral sea on that date.

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#1453547 - 20/02/2018 11:04 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
More potential for something to pop up over the next week to 10 days. Interesting little feature appearing to be modeled inland NT around Tennant Creek pushing WNW through the interior towards the Southern Kimberley while another weaker LOW coming around the top. Be interesting to see if one or the other dominates or whether there might be any interaction between the two. A bit of Fujiwara interaction with both lows circulating around Broome for a week haha another 500mm coming up. The way this season is going some kind of freak event might be on the cards.

Imagine the inland LOW developing over land as it approached to move offshore. A bit like Kelvin intensifying over land but this one coming from the other direction. So much random strange stuff going on this year.
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#1453560 - 20/02/2018 12:36 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Popeye - I think your imagination has become a bit over active with all the rain... wink

Mate - you're not wrong though models are hinting at both those scenarios at the moment.....


Edited by Sepo (20/02/2018 12:39)

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#1453572 - 20/02/2018 13:42 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 803
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Can you throw some of your rain over here, 434mm for us this year...shocking....Seem the WET tropics are turning dry
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Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2018]: 10mm (Ave 136mm)
Mar 2018: 679.9mm (avg 329.6mm)
YTD 2018 1787.3mm (Avg 1952.1mm)

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#1453611 - 20/02/2018 18:46 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
So based on the intensification of TC Kelvin and the latest EC run it looks like the Great Sandy Desert is the new spawning ground for TCs 😜

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#1453637 - 20/02/2018 21:13 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2376
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: Popeye
A bit of Fujiwara interaction with both lows circulating around Broome for a week haha another 500mm coming up. The way this season is going some kind of freak event might be on the cards.

I thought it was interesting that New Zealand is going to break Cyclone Gita in half.

Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Can you throw some of your rain over here, 434mm for us this year...shocking....Seem the WET tropics are turning dry


New Zealand will have had more than us in FNQ, with Cyclone Gita apparently still a Category 1 last time I looked.

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#1453653 - 20/02/2018 22:14 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Sepo]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Sepo
So based on the intensification of TC Kelvin and the latest EC run it looks like the Great Sandy Desert is the new spawning ground for TCs 😜

Yeah I think that area is the one to watch. Tennant Creek shifting WNW to be up this way and moving offshore. Be interesting to see what it could do rain wise being detached from the Monsoon. I would imagine some nude circulation in previous years but who knows this season. It could gain some nice structure and dump rain again.
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#1453710 - 21/02/2018 10:55 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Sepo]
scott12 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 950
Loc: maadi Tully area
Originally Posted By: Sepo
So based on the intensification of TC Kelvin and the latest EC run it looks like the Great Sandy Desert is the new spawning ground for TCs 😜


Maybe not so far fetched after all..

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/cyclo...nland-wa/527537

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#1453861 - 22/02/2018 11:12 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Looks like its all slowly being phased back now. Time for some sun and blue sky with some nice evening thunderstorms instead.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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