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#1452096 - 10/02/2018 13:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6976
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
I would never say it was common.


Especially not from that far out.

With current system, we basically get 3-4 days worth of ridging across the Tasman & CS followed by another endless stream of trough development between NSW & NZ. Doesn't seem fair that our window of opportunity is always so small. Personally had a gutful of the endless troughiness through that area for the past month. Everyone was hyping up those hot SSTs in the Tasman Sea and so far they've done jack for us but enhanced rainfall for the west coast of NZ.

This doesn't look good no matter how you look at it:


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#1452098 - 10/02/2018 14:18 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5133
Yep there's often been talk of big rains coming whenever SST's become really warm off the east coast but there's often cases when no big rains eventuate due to unfavourable synoptic patterns - this summer being a classic example.

Social media has also been rife (again) with ongoing rumours about a "twin cyclone" impact on NE NSW/SE QLD within the next couple of weeks based on extended GFS.

Below is the latest track spread for TC Gita from a range of deterministic models and ensembles colour-coded by intensity (via the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program). Uses the non-Australian intensity scale:



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#1452140 - 11/02/2018 06:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 218
Awesome graphic Ken. Very greatful for your input as always.

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#1452166 - 11/02/2018 11:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 803
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Yep most models have it saying hi to NZ. But still there is a very slight chance we might get something but its a chance that isnt even worth giving a second thought really. Maybe March is our TC month but with this seasons record im not holding my breath
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2018]: 10mm (Ave 136mm)
Mar 2018: 679.9mm (avg 329.6mm)
YTD 2018 1787.3mm (Avg 1952.1mm)

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#1452233 - 11/02/2018 20:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 434
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Current forecasts not favouring Australia albeit with low but not impossible chance.
Canadian CMC model appears to deviate.. As it did in TC Debbie
A few days to watch yet though.
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/..._model_late.png


Edited by Flowin (11/02/2018 20:34)
Edit Reason: Link

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#1452247 - 11/02/2018 21:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23673
Loc: Townsville
It aint hitting qld
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1452251 - 11/02/2018 22:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 803
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
I have to agree with Trav...this TC is not.for us.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2018]: 10mm (Ave 136mm)
Mar 2018: 679.9mm (avg 329.6mm)
YTD 2018 1787.3mm (Avg 1952.1mm)

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#1452258 - 11/02/2018 23:10 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1145
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Its gone
Not even looking at models for that.....silly thing
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1452259 - 11/02/2018 23:10 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5709
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
It aint hitting qld


Agreed. Not even close.

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#1452321 - 12/02/2018 12:24 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 803
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
I predict we will get a cyclone cross the coast anytime between now and when Australia drifts outside the TC risk zone lol bet I get it right.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2018]: 10mm (Ave 136mm)
Mar 2018: 679.9mm (avg 329.6mm)
YTD 2018 1787.3mm (Avg 1952.1mm)

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#1452402 - 12/02/2018 21:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 434
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
I predict we will get a cyclone cross the coast anytime between now and when Australia drifts outside the TC risk zone lol bet I get it right.


I had to read that several times. I kept interpreting as to get a coast crossing, we the need the coast to move into the path of a cyclone. LoL

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#1452404 - 12/02/2018 21:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Homer]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 434
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
It aint hitting qld


Agreed. Not even close.


Based on what models overwhelming say now and last 2-3 days on balance of probabilities I would agree Gita and Qld are an unlikely engagement.
But I am not so bullish in confidence of model predictions 6 days beyond forecast time zero. It took models a while to turn TC Debbie south from the original forecast path that was to Northern Territory 👀. One of the first models to turn Debbie south was CMC. This is what is also out there yet to be proved right or wrong https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09P_geps_00z.png
Don't take that as a forecast, it is cherry picked to show a point... Let's see where she goes, and noting that forecast intensity is somewhat broad http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/...ensity_late.png

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#1452409 - 12/02/2018 22:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 434
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld

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#1452415 - 12/02/2018 23:10 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Flowin]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 218
Originally Posted By: Flowin


I must admit, I was impressed with HWRF for TC Debbie and Hurricane Irma. The Model performed well very early in the piece I thought, and didn't disappoint as the systems approached and crossed the coast.

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#1452419 - 12/02/2018 23:18 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5133
The HWRF is quite well-known for its low track errors for TC's compared to many other models so it's one of the better ones to watch.

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#1452421 - 13/02/2018 00:05 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 434
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Thanks Ken your info on models (and weather!) is a great value to us
HWRF has brought the forecast track for Gita further north closer to New Caledonia over the last 36 hours or so. Be interesting to watch further developments and forecasts, and other models as well

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#1452428 - 13/02/2018 05:48 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 218
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
The HWRF is quite well-known for its low track errors for TC's compared to many other models so it's one of the better ones to watch.


Thanks for the info Ken. Have been watching Hurricane Hunters (NOAA) on Netflix. The deep history and work they're tasked with sure does make one reflect on the work going on in the background by the official monitoring and agencies, when mother nature is or about to unleash her wrath. Pretty cool show.

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#1452429 - 13/02/2018 06:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1178
Loc: Toowoomba
It would be amazing if the almost impossible(hitting the coast in a weakened state of course) happened, but would it give rain though to areas that desperately need it?

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#1452495 - 13/02/2018 14:25 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Flowin]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 803
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
I predict we will get a cyclone cross the coast anytime between now and when Australia drifts outside the TC risk zone lol bet I get it right.


I had to read that several times. I kept interpreting as to get a coast crossing, we the need the coast to move into the path of a cyclone. LoL


Well that would work too lol

This heat is beyond ridiculous. 36c atm. If that cyclone follows the forecast track, that is worse...so close yet so far.


Edited by rainthisway (13/02/2018 14:32)
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2018]: 10mm (Ave 136mm)
Mar 2018: 679.9mm (avg 329.6mm)
YTD 2018 1787.3mm (Avg 1952.1mm)

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#1452632 - 14/02/2018 09:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1641
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Here is a 24 hour timelasse of satellite images covering the Gita area. New Zealand may be in for a bumpy ride if the models are correct.
http://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/HimawariSatellite-CentralPacific.aspx

(Updates every 30 minutes)
_________________________
Ocean View, QLD. (Alt. 412m)

GFS + Long Range - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/GFS
Himawari Satellite Images - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/Satellite

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