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#1453123 - 17/02/2018 01:46 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
262mls and climbing. I wonder if we will go to yellow. Would bot surprise me if we stay on blue. As the purpose of yellow is to prepare for imminent cyclonic weather. Eg red. And I dont think us here in Broome will get that. Think he is losing steam and direction and potential. The rain is incredible, and this is a very significant system. Just my 2 cents. Lovong the weather atm. So glad I moved this year. Haha

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#1453167 - 17/02/2018 13:05 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3503
Loc: Broome

Not too bad ...wind only 65kms/hr and 371mms of rain .
A few big potholes around town today.

Thunder last night with heavy rain made it for a fairly sleepiness night until about 4am.

Colour bond roofs make lots of noise when rain gets heavy and pelts down so much so they sometimes drown out the constant croaking of the tree frogs..

Still not a cyclone yet though ....see what happens with it later today off the coast of Sandfire.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1453173 - 17/02/2018 13:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
Haha. Yes Desie! I told them they could take a break from croaking her in. Job done guys. They are so cute, just wish they would stay off the roads.

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#1453174 - 17/02/2018 13:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2028
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Least your Low looks healthier than that mess in the Pacific grin

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#1453175 - 17/02/2018 14:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3503
Loc: Broome


Got to love our frogs even if they can keep you up for half the night.
Got one in a drainpipe in the bathroom and the noise is personified ,wish he'd go and find himself a nice girlfriend and live somewhere else...

Low has good shear environment but steering from upper equatorial ridge and NT ridge not strong enough to affect it atm except being squeezed in a slow movement to the south.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1453189 - 17/02/2018 18:01 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3503
Loc: Broome

Finally TC Kelvin is born ..but how long will he survive?

BOM Issued at 2:49 pm AWST Saturday 17 February 2018

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin has developed off the far west Kimberley coast. The system will be slow moving before tracking southeast towards the coast. Kelvin may reach category 2 intensity prior to crossing the far west Kimberley or far east Pilbara coast during Sunday morning.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1453216 - 17/02/2018 23:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3503
Loc: Broome

May be around for less than a day according to the Access model.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Kelvin at 5:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 19.3 degrees South, 120.6 degrees East , 230 kilometres southwest of Broome and 240 kilometres east northeast of Port Hedland .
Movement: east southeast at 7 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin has developed off the west Kimberley coast and is gradually strengthening. The system has started moving towards in an east southeast direction towards the coast. It is possible it will intensify into a Category 2 tropical cyclone before crossing the coast during the early hours of Sunday morning, most likely near Sandfire.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1453243 - 18/02/2018 09:47 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Making landfall now around Anna Plains station on 80 Mile Beach. Looks nice on radar for a CAT 1. Wind steady here in Broome and nudging another 100mm.
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#1453251 - 18/02/2018 10:33 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Upgraded to CAT 2.
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#1453256 - 18/02/2018 10:59 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3503
Loc: Broome

Yes Pops wind picked up heaps as Kelvin nears the coast.

Port had a 93km/hr gust here betwen50-70kms/hr.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Kelvin at 6:30 am AWST:

Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 100 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 150 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 19.2 degrees South, 121.4 degrees East , 165 kilometres south southwest of Broome and 70 kilometres southwest of Bidyadanga .
Movement: east at 9 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin is crossing the far west Kimberley coast near Anna Plains as a category 2 tropical cyclone. Destructive winds are likely near the centre over the next few hours as Kelvin crosses the coast and moves inland. Kelvin will weaken later today as it continues to move inland.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1453259 - 18/02/2018 11:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3503
Loc: Broome

Can see the moisture TC Kelvin is dragging around with it as it crosses the coast.

Bet they would love all that water vapour to be south of Cairns on the QLD coast, especially around Townsville..


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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1453262 - 18/02/2018 11:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25266
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Eye looking great, looked a lot better than a cat1 while crossing.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
March 2018 total - 296mm (194mm)
April 2018 total - 12.4mm (66mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 794.4mm (1107mm)

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#1453271 - 18/02/2018 13:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3503
Loc: Broome

Crossing as a Cat 2 but maintaining Cat 1 status for 12 hours ,so still got the goods and packing a punch.....

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1453276 - 18/02/2018 14:28 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3503
Loc: Broome

Circulation easily seen on radar at 11am WST.
Conditions (shear,outflow etc) quite good for this system even if overland atm.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1453280 - 18/02/2018 15:15 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
Yes maybe it can suck up all the water on the roads for us. What a great system. Think we had better let the next system hed down Hedland way if we want to stay on friendly terms with our Pilbara neighbours.
What a Fab wet...and still time.

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#1453292 - 18/02/2018 17:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 306
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
I'm just wondering whether it is a coincidence that this system has been named TC Kelvin when it has been powered by a Kelvin wave

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#1453326 - 18/02/2018 21:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: ashestoashes]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 440
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
I'm just wondering whether it is a coincidence that this system has been named TC Kelvin when it has been powered by a Kelvin wave

I thought it was a Rossby wave.
"Rossby wave: The little-known phenomenon fuelling Tropical Cyclone Kelvin off WA"
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-16/rossby-wave-phenomenon-fuels-tropical-cyclone-kelvin/9451796


Edited by Red Watch (18/02/2018 21:24)

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#1453332 - 19/02/2018 01:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
OK Next. That was fun. But if I get more than 12 days between systems I will start losing it. Gee better not move to QLD be 12 months between systems over there.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1453356 - 19/02/2018 11:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3503
Loc: Broome

Still going as Cat 1 ...not bad for a TC that only got itself together 12 hours before it crossed the coast.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Kelvin at 5:00 am AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 21.3 degrees South, 122.7 degrees East , 65 kilometres northeast of Telfer and 150 kilometres north of Parnngurr .
Movement: south southeast at 13 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin has weakened to a category 1 tropical cyclone as it moves inland across the far east Pilbara. Kelvin will weaken below cyclone strength during Monday morning as it continues to move inland and track towards the south southeast. Gales may persist in the eastern quadrants of the system till Tuesday morning.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1453372 - 19/02/2018 13:24 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Models might just be giving you your 12 day fix by the look of it Popeye... GFS and EC hinting at something in 12 - 14 days.

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