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#1453397 - 19/02/2018 15:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

Doesn't want to die out that's for sure...

Details of Tropical Cyclone Kelvin at 11:00 am AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 21.6 degrees South, 123.0 degrees East , 75 kilometres east of Telfer and 115 kilometres north northeast of Parnngurr .
Movement: south southeast at 10 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin remains a category 1 tropical cyclone as it moves south across the far northwest Interior. Kelvin will weaken below cyclone strength during Monday afternoon as it continues to move further inland towards the south southeast. Gales may persist in the eastern quadrants of the system till Tuesday morning.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1453413 - 19/02/2018 16:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2504
Loc: Chillagoe
That's getting close to 400 km inland.
Have any/many cyclones in WA travelled that distance inland before?

Cyclone Larry travelled around 110 km out to Mount Garnet, at least, from what I heard (pre-internet days for me).
Yasi apparently went all the way out to Cloncurry over 600 km.

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#1453418 - 19/02/2018 16:56 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25305
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
strong cyclones yes, but wouldnt be many that crossed as Cat 2.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1453421 - 19/02/2018 17:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Mick10]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2504
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: Mick10
strong cyclones yes, but wouldn't be many that crossed as Cat 2.


So that's a comparatively weak cyclone to get that far inland and still be a cyclone.



Edited by cold@28 (19/02/2018 17:08)

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#1453422 - 19/02/2018 17:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome


Think that the low wind shear and good outflow has helped it maintain itself but not sure on records of longest distance travelled as a TC once crossing the land.

Not sure where to start looking for that info....
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1453423 - 19/02/2018 17:12 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: desieboy]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2644
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: desieboy


Think that the low wind shear and good outflow has helped it maintain itself but not sure on records of longest distance travelled as a TC once crossing the land.

Not sure where to start looking for that info....


What was his/her name that cross QLD / NT / WA and then went all the way through to Vic as a deep low. She was a TC well down to the NT Border if I recall. Just wish I can remember - was it Steve?

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#1453424 - 19/02/2018 17:15 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: desieboy]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2504
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: desieboy

Not sure where to start looking for that info....

Me neither, had just been wondering whether anyone remembered anything. But it's interesting to me because people I met just after Larry kept saying cyclones just don't make it to the Tableland, let alone further. Of course events since then have proved otherwise.

Just went looking for the map of Australia where you could see all the cyclone tracks, choose a year, etc. Can't find it. Everything seems to be divided into states and lists. Anyone know if it's still there please?

Edit: think I found it, just didn't know how to use it.... thanks Kino.


Edited by cold@28 (19/02/2018 17:25)

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#1453426 - 19/02/2018 17:16 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2644
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Check out Gertie 95/96 - went across the whole Country as almost a Cat 1? and the re-crossed the QLD coast off into the Coral Sea!

From here:

Cyclone Track Maps


Edited by Kino (19/02/2018 17:16)

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#1453429 - 19/02/2018 17:30 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

Yes Gertie was amazing ..toured the length of OZ ..

TC Olivia did ok too 95/96 season .
Started in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and ended up 6 days later in the Great Australian Bight.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1453433 - 19/02/2018 17:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Sepo]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Sepo
Models might just be giving you your 12 day fix by the look of it Popeye... GFS and EC hinting at something in 12 - 14 days.

Might only be 9 days Sepo. Even better.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1453436 - 19/02/2018 18:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7384
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Wow. What was Broomes total rainfall for this cyclone?

....explains why the stormwater drains in Broome were so deep when I visited in dusty 37C conditions Oct '16!!

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#1453440 - 19/02/2018 18:46 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Just over 500mm Petros. Which takes us within approx 25mm of the wettest annual total (78yrs) for Broome of 1496mm. Wettest Jan on Record, Wettest Feb on record. Just inland 10kms West Roebuck has had over 2000mm already. The best thing though is we have 315 days of the year to go. WOWOW
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1453443 - 19/02/2018 18:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7384
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
....and you were there to experience it! smile

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#1453462 - 19/02/2018 20:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2504
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Just over 500mm Petros. Which takes us within approx 25mm of the wettest annual total (78yrs) for Broome of 1496mm. Wettest Jan on Record, Wettest Feb on record. Just inland 10kms West Roebuck has had over 2000mm already. The best thing though is we have 315 days of the year to go. WOWOW


You'll have rainforest soon, and we'll be semi-arid. :-/

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#1453469 - 19/02/2018 21:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: desieboy]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 443
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: desieboy

Yes Gertie was amazing ..toured the length of OZ ..

TC Olivia did ok too 95/96 season .
Started in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and ended up 6 days later in the Great Australian Bight.


According to this map it came through the same area as Kelvin, went right across Australia and nearly made to New Caledonia.
http://www.australiasevereweather.com/tropical_cyclones/1995_1996/bom/tropical_cyclone_gertie.htm


Edited by Red Watch (19/02/2018 21:33)

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#1453485 - 19/02/2018 22:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Ah yeah sorry Popeye 12 to 14 days is the follow up to the 9 - 10 day one..😜

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#1453497 - 20/02/2018 00:25 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3825
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
A word of caution with track maps - they generally run from the first point of an identifiable system to the point that a system is either no longer identifiable or has gone extratropical. Certainly doesn't imply that it was at cyclone intensity for the duration. There have also been some changes over time in conventions over whether systems were/weren't named when over land, although nothing major from the 1990s onwards.

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#1453614 - 20/02/2018 18:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

Ex Kelvin still packing a punch in the interior..

l.Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia


TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST


Severe Weather Warning

for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL

For people in parts of North Interior and South Interior districts.


Issued at 10:32 am Tuesday, 20 February 2018.


Weather Situation:
At 10:30am AWST on Tuesday EX Tropical Cyclone Kelvin was estimated to be 180 kilometres to the southeast of Parnngurr, and 250 kilometres to the northeast of Carnegie, moving slowly towards the south southeast.


The low is expected to cause a period of WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour which could cause DAMAGE TO HOMES AND PROPERTY. The strongest winds will be in areas close to the low centre, initially about northern parts of the South Interior then extending southward during Tuesday.


HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over the warning area.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1453841 - 22/02/2018 09:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17592
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Just dumped 78mm on Eucla as it made its way out into the Bight...

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#1453876 - 22/02/2018 13:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

Can see on the map the soaking rain that TC Kelvin bought to W.A in the last week as it travelled southwards .


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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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