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#1452648 - 14/02/2018 12:48 Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
We may as well get a new thread going for what may turn out to be quite an interesting future Cyclone development off the WA coast.

It has been called Invest 91S

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 133.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 131.5E, APPROXIMATELY
54 NM SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 131253Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING REGION OF LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH LARGE AREAS OF
FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP IN AS CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DUE TO A NEARBY POINT SOURCE,
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS) JUST OFFSHORE.
91S IS CURRENTLY CONSOLIDATING OVER LAND, HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE 91S WILL TRACK SOUTHWEST ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. IT
IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER 91S WILL TRACK OVERWATER, BUT RAPID
CONSOLIDATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HIGHLY PROBABLE IF AND WHEN
IT DOES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.


Edited by Mick10 (17/02/2018 19:31)
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#1452652 - 14/02/2018 13:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
It is showing some nice initial shape for a system that is only in its early days. Be a beautiful sight to watch this one unfold in the next few days.
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#1452653 - 14/02/2018 13:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
darwindix Offline
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Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Darwin airport received 73 mm in the last 24 hrs from this one.

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#1452676 - 14/02/2018 15:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
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Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
What is GFS doing with the LOW / Cyclone on its latest run? scouring the coast from Broome to Hedland and then doing a loop the loop before crossing?

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#1452681 - 14/02/2018 15:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Dawgggg Offline
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Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
If this system can clear land, there is no doubt it will be a severe system on landfall.


Edited by Dawgggg (14/02/2018 15:52)
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#1452692 - 14/02/2018 16:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Wow its cranking along. Maybe a bit to fast for my liking. It would be nice to see it propped up and go West from where it currently is, push off the coast around Kuri Bay, slow down in speed, rapidly develop, then get captured and sent SSE scraping offshore of Broome and hitting Bidgy to 80 Mile Beach caravan Park as a CAT 3+. Nice little shake up for Broome again but hopefully nothing to nasty. Am I wanting too much haha. Probs be Hedlands to Karratha.
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#1452694 - 14/02/2018 16:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
darwindix Offline
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Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
The speed of the rain squalls coming through Darwin in the last hour has increased significantly(checkout Darwin radar).It looks like it's starting to get some teeth.As you say Dawgggg time over land will be the telling factor.

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#1452699 - 14/02/2018 17:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah they look nice and fast darwindix. Anything squally/damaging with them?
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#1452701 - 14/02/2018 17:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
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Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
I think that is pretty close. Popeye. My vote for what it is worth. Cat 3 plus landing between Hedland and 80mile or cat1 to 2 pardoo to Bidgy.

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#1452703 - 14/02/2018 17:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
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Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
I think that is pretty close. Popeye. My vote for what it is worth. Cat 3 plus landing between Hedland and 80mile or cat1 to 2 pardoo to Bidgy.

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#1452704 - 14/02/2018 17:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
darwindix Offline
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Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Nothing too severe Popeye and I don't think anything worse will come out of this for us.But did notice that a central core/eye has just appeared on the radar images.

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#1452706 - 14/02/2018 17:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
darwindix Offline
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Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Just to correct myself on the last call about the core eye .i do understand that certain strengths have to be reached before an eye appears.Someone with more technical knowledge may be able to enlighten me on this .I just think this system is organising itself pretty quickly.

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#1452718 - 14/02/2018 18:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Hurricane force Offline
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Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 4181
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1

Issued at 2:44 pm WST on Wednesday 14 February 2018
Headline:

A developing tropical low is expected to track across the north Kimberley and may develop into a tropical cyclone off the northwest Kimberley coast on Friday or Saturday.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone

None.
Watch Zone

Kuri Bay to Port Hedland, inlcuding Broome.
Cancelled Zone

None.
Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 30 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 14.1 degrees South 129.3 degrees East, estimated to be 195 kilometres north northeast of Kununurra and 295 kilometres east of Kalumburu.

Movement: west southwest at 19 kilometres per hour.

A developing tropical low is expected to move over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf late on Wednesday and then across the north Kimberley during Thursday. Late Thursday or during Friday the low is expected to move off the northwest Kimberley coast and may develop into a tropical cyclone during Friday or Saturday.
Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal parts between Kuri Bay and Bidyadanga, including Broome during Friday afternoon. GALES may extend further southwest to Wallal Downs and Port Hedland late Friday or early Saturday.
Recommended Action:

DFES advises that there are no community alerts at present.

Communities between Kuri Bay and Port Hedland, including Broome should listen for the next advice.
Next Advice:

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm AWST Wednesday 14 February.

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YTD: 2287.6 mm

September- 18.0mm

2014- 2352.6mm
2015- 2635.1mm
2016- 1495.7mm
2017- 2190.0mm
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#1452720 - 14/02/2018 18:41 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
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Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Here we go again then....

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#1452738 - 14/02/2018 19:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
croc crew Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2007
Posts: 187
Loc: Maningrida, Arnhem Land, NT
I'm pretty sure we had this system in its' infancy over the last few days, with the rain finally easing as of early this morning. Sure is nice to see some blue sky this afternoon. Happy to push this one along as it grows and send it to the guys over in WA.

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#1452817 - 15/02/2018 13:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

Seems like it is going to be squeezed southwards after crossing off the coast under the influence off ridge near Exmouth.
Going to have a short lifespan as a TC though.
May come closer to Broome than expected...

My plants needs a rest ...came back from 6 weeks hols and my garden has been reshaped...
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#1452819 - 15/02/2018 13:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
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Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
Yes my garden is looking very open and light, thanks to the last 3..my roof has a leake with the crazy amoint of rain from the last. Hoping we dont get that much rain this time. But despite all this I cant help but be excited.

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#1452821 - 15/02/2018 13:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome


Yes Ningergirl a bit exciting... But like you don't need or want too much rain or strong winds.

Got lots of mould on the kitchen ceiling too ...

Joys of living in the tropics...
Come back from hols always got heaps to do...

Think a few will be stocking up on groceries today after last one ..
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#1452919 - 15/02/2018 19:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
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Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
Latest track mapa now say impact in either east Pilbata or west Kimberly...can't wait to see what develops tomorrow. I think east Pilbara would be the safer bet surely!

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#1452955 - 15/02/2018 22:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

Bit of a re curve forecast happening in a couple of days.

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#1452959 - 15/02/2018 23:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Brett Guy Offline
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Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5096
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Definitely a pattern emerging this year for the north west. 3 almost identical systems in regards to origing and general direction of travel. Interesting

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#1452963 - 16/02/2018 03:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I think we can count ourselves lucky it is exiting the coast as far South as it has made it. Any higher and it would have had a target on top of Broome as a rapidly intensifying system with that projected recurve. Still anything can happen. Been interesting to watch so far.
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#1452986 - 16/02/2018 10:56 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

6am and low has moved into the middle of the Dampier Peninsular as predicted.

95kms NNE of Broome and heading to make an exit to the coast within the next couple of hours.

Movement: west southwest at 22 kilometres per hour so its not wasting any time getting to the water and becoming a TC.

Winds 50-60km/hr here atm and moderate rain.
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#1453003 - 16/02/2018 13:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

Coming back towards the coast with a bit of a sharper left hand turn because of a blocking ridge to the south.

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#1453010 - 16/02/2018 14:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
darwindix Offline
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Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
I noticed Broome port copped an 87 kmh gust at 11.30.Thanks desieboy for the personal observations.Any others from people in the area?

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#1453012 - 16/02/2018 15:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

Yep darwindix pretty much blowing a gale and pretty much torrential rain for the last 2hours.

Noticed a couple of storm drains blocked so a bit of local flooding in Chinatown .

Broome port 91km/hr ..

70kms from Broome travelling off the coast at WSW at 20km/hr away from the town.
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#1453031 - 16/02/2018 17:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

Wind not too bad ...65kms/hr from the East ..96kms/hr at the port but torrential rain atm .

Broome 123mms since 9am.
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#1453033 - 16/02/2018 17:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Wow bucketing down. I just measured 160mm for the event. Over 100mm in the last 3 hrs. Amazing
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#1453036 - 16/02/2018 17:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
darwindix Offline
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Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Thanks desieboy,keep them coming.

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#1453079 - 16/02/2018 20:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome


Still steady rain up to 160mm since 9am wind only at 41km/hr,pressure 999.9 been similar all day.

Been a pretty dark day all round today.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1453093 - 16/02/2018 21:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 213
Loc: Karratha, WA
Looks like he’s heading back up to you Pops and Desie!
Kimberley has had total domination over this season!

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#1453100 - 16/02/2018 21:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

Yes Weathergrrl ...Don't know who made Broome the rain and low magnet but whoever it was sure did a good job. wink

212 mms so far today and it keeps coming.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1453101 - 16/02/2018 21:46 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome


Actually wish this lot would go down to the Pilbara and give you guys a good soaking ...
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#1453109 - 16/02/2018 22:16 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 213
Loc: Karratha, WA
Soon-to-be Kelvin seems to want to hold on to the West Kimberley hospitality. Karratha had a half decent storm cell come through last night with gusts just over 100kms. Negligible rain rain of course though. Hoping Kelvin spreads his moisture down these parts as lord knows Broome has def had its fair share this season.


Edited by Weathergrrl (16/02/2018 22:17)

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#1453111 - 16/02/2018 22:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Lombadina 0mm, Derby 35mm, Broome 221mm quite incredible as these numbers are almost always in the opposite order for any event. As you say we’ve had our fair share....


Edited by Sepo (16/02/2018 22:40)

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#1453113 - 16/02/2018 22:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
I think this things going to give up turning into a cyclone and just sit where it is and dump rain on Broome for the next day or two......

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#1453114 - 16/02/2018 23:22 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
There was an earlier post about Broome needing 250 mm to make it the 3rd highest wet on record Could be well on track if that's the case

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#1453117 - 16/02/2018 23:54 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

Plenty of moisture feeding in and being wrapped around this little baby...

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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1453119 - 17/02/2018 00:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: darwindix]
Blair Trewin Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3825
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Originally Posted By: darwindix
There was an earlier post about Broome needing 250 mm to make it the 3rd highest wet on record Could be well on track if that's the case


3rd wettest calendar year, actually (but looking at it, also 3rd wettest wet season). It got there an hour or so ago. Still 200+ to go to the top two.

(caveat: the official figure for Broome is the 9am reading in the manual gauge, not the AWS total, but these rarely differ by more than a few percent, and the manual gauge is normally the higher of the two)

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#1453120 - 17/02/2018 01:00 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
200 is highly likely based on what is still ahead ....

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#1453123 - 17/02/2018 01:46 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
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Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
262mls and climbing. I wonder if we will go to yellow. Would bot surprise me if we stay on blue. As the purpose of yellow is to prepare for imminent cyclonic weather. Eg red. And I dont think us here in Broome will get that. Think he is losing steam and direction and potential. The rain is incredible, and this is a very significant system. Just my 2 cents. Lovong the weather atm. So glad I moved this year. Haha

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#1453167 - 17/02/2018 13:05 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

Not too bad ...wind only 65kms/hr and 371mms of rain .
A few big potholes around town today.

Thunder last night with heavy rain made it for a fairly sleepiness night until about 4am.

Colour bond roofs make lots of noise when rain gets heavy and pelts down so much so they sometimes drown out the constant croaking of the tree frogs..

Still not a cyclone yet though ....see what happens with it later today off the coast of Sandfire.
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#1453173 - 17/02/2018 13:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
Haha. Yes Desie! I told them they could take a break from croaking her in. Job done guys. They are so cute, just wish they would stay off the roads.

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#1453174 - 17/02/2018 13:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2644
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Least your Low looks healthier than that mess in the Pacific grin

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#1453175 - 17/02/2018 14:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome


Got to love our frogs even if they can keep you up for half the night.
Got one in a drainpipe in the bathroom and the noise is personified ,wish he'd go and find himself a nice girlfriend and live somewhere else...

Low has good shear environment but steering from upper equatorial ridge and NT ridge not strong enough to affect it atm except being squeezed in a slow movement to the south.
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#1453189 - 17/02/2018 18:01 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

Finally TC Kelvin is born ..but how long will he survive?

BOM Issued at 2:49 pm AWST Saturday 17 February 2018

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin has developed off the far west Kimberley coast. The system will be slow moving before tracking southeast towards the coast. Kelvin may reach category 2 intensity prior to crossing the far west Kimberley or far east Pilbara coast during Sunday morning.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1453216 - 17/02/2018 23:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

May be around for less than a day according to the Access model.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Kelvin at 5:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 19.3 degrees South, 120.6 degrees East , 230 kilometres southwest of Broome and 240 kilometres east northeast of Port Hedland .
Movement: east southeast at 7 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin has developed off the west Kimberley coast and is gradually strengthening. The system has started moving towards in an east southeast direction towards the coast. It is possible it will intensify into a Category 2 tropical cyclone before crossing the coast during the early hours of Sunday morning, most likely near Sandfire.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1453243 - 18/02/2018 09:47 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Making landfall now around Anna Plains station on 80 Mile Beach. Looks nice on radar for a CAT 1. Wind steady here in Broome and nudging another 100mm.
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#1453251 - 18/02/2018 10:33 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Upgraded to CAT 2.
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#1453256 - 18/02/2018 10:59 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

Yes Pops wind picked up heaps as Kelvin nears the coast.

Port had a 93km/hr gust here betwen50-70kms/hr.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Kelvin at 6:30 am AWST:

Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 100 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 150 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 19.2 degrees South, 121.4 degrees East , 165 kilometres south southwest of Broome and 70 kilometres southwest of Bidyadanga .
Movement: east at 9 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin is crossing the far west Kimberley coast near Anna Plains as a category 2 tropical cyclone. Destructive winds are likely near the centre over the next few hours as Kelvin crosses the coast and moves inland. Kelvin will weaken later today as it continues to move inland.
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#1453259 - 18/02/2018 11:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

Can see the moisture TC Kelvin is dragging around with it as it crosses the coast.

Bet they would love all that water vapour to be south of Cairns on the QLD coast, especially around Townsville..


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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1453262 - 18/02/2018 11:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25305
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Eye looking great, looked a lot better than a cat1 while crossing.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1453271 - 18/02/2018 13:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

Crossing as a Cat 2 but maintaining Cat 1 status for 12 hours ,so still got the goods and packing a punch.....

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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1453276 - 18/02/2018 14:28 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

Circulation easily seen on radar at 11am WST.
Conditions (shear,outflow etc) quite good for this system even if overland atm.

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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1453280 - 18/02/2018 15:15 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
Yes maybe it can suck up all the water on the roads for us. What a great system. Think we had better let the next system hed down Hedland way if we want to stay on friendly terms with our Pilbara neighbours.
What a Fab wet...and still time.

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#1453292 - 18/02/2018 17:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
ashestoashes Offline
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Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 454
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
I'm just wondering whether it is a coincidence that this system has been named TC Kelvin when it has been powered by a Kelvin wave

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#1453326 - 18/02/2018 21:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: ashestoashes]
Red Watch Offline
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Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 443
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
I'm just wondering whether it is a coincidence that this system has been named TC Kelvin when it has been powered by a Kelvin wave

I thought it was a Rossby wave.
"Rossby wave: The little-known phenomenon fuelling Tropical Cyclone Kelvin off WA"
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-16/rossby-wave-phenomenon-fuels-tropical-cyclone-kelvin/9451796


Edited by Red Watch (18/02/2018 21:24)

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#1453332 - 19/02/2018 01:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
OK Next. That was fun. But if I get more than 12 days between systems I will start losing it. Gee better not move to QLD be 12 months between systems over there.
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#1453356 - 19/02/2018 11:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

Still going as Cat 1 ...not bad for a TC that only got itself together 12 hours before it crossed the coast.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Kelvin at 5:00 am AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 21.3 degrees South, 122.7 degrees East , 65 kilometres northeast of Telfer and 150 kilometres north of Parnngurr .
Movement: south southeast at 13 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin has weakened to a category 1 tropical cyclone as it moves inland across the far east Pilbara. Kelvin will weaken below cyclone strength during Monday morning as it continues to move inland and track towards the south southeast. Gales may persist in the eastern quadrants of the system till Tuesday morning.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1453372 - 19/02/2018 13:24 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
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Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Models might just be giving you your 12 day fix by the look of it Popeye... GFS and EC hinting at something in 12 - 14 days.

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#1453397 - 19/02/2018 15:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

Doesn't want to die out that's for sure...

Details of Tropical Cyclone Kelvin at 11:00 am AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 21.6 degrees South, 123.0 degrees East , 75 kilometres east of Telfer and 115 kilometres north northeast of Parnngurr .
Movement: south southeast at 10 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Kelvin remains a category 1 tropical cyclone as it moves south across the far northwest Interior. Kelvin will weaken below cyclone strength during Monday afternoon as it continues to move further inland towards the south southeast. Gales may persist in the eastern quadrants of the system till Tuesday morning.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1453413 - 19/02/2018 16:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
cold@28 Offline
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Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2504
Loc: Chillagoe
That's getting close to 400 km inland.
Have any/many cyclones in WA travelled that distance inland before?

Cyclone Larry travelled around 110 km out to Mount Garnet, at least, from what I heard (pre-internet days for me).
Yasi apparently went all the way out to Cloncurry over 600 km.

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#1453418 - 19/02/2018 16:56 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25305
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
strong cyclones yes, but wouldnt be many that crossed as Cat 2.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1453421 - 19/02/2018 17:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Mick10]
cold@28 Offline
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Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2504
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: Mick10
strong cyclones yes, but wouldn't be many that crossed as Cat 2.


So that's a comparatively weak cyclone to get that far inland and still be a cyclone.



Edited by cold@28 (19/02/2018 17:08)

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#1453422 - 19/02/2018 17:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome


Think that the low wind shear and good outflow has helped it maintain itself but not sure on records of longest distance travelled as a TC once crossing the land.

Not sure where to start looking for that info....
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1453423 - 19/02/2018 17:12 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: desieboy]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2644
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: desieboy


Think that the low wind shear and good outflow has helped it maintain itself but not sure on records of longest distance travelled as a TC once crossing the land.

Not sure where to start looking for that info....


What was his/her name that cross QLD / NT / WA and then went all the way through to Vic as a deep low. She was a TC well down to the NT Border if I recall. Just wish I can remember - was it Steve?

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#1453424 - 19/02/2018 17:15 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: desieboy]
cold@28 Offline
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Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2504
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: desieboy

Not sure where to start looking for that info....

Me neither, had just been wondering whether anyone remembered anything. But it's interesting to me because people I met just after Larry kept saying cyclones just don't make it to the Tableland, let alone further. Of course events since then have proved otherwise.

Just went looking for the map of Australia where you could see all the cyclone tracks, choose a year, etc. Can't find it. Everything seems to be divided into states and lists. Anyone know if it's still there please?

Edit: think I found it, just didn't know how to use it.... thanks Kino.


Edited by cold@28 (19/02/2018 17:25)

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#1453426 - 19/02/2018 17:16 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2644
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Check out Gertie 95/96 - went across the whole Country as almost a Cat 1? and the re-crossed the QLD coast off into the Coral Sea!

From here:

Cyclone Track Maps


Edited by Kino (19/02/2018 17:16)

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#1453429 - 19/02/2018 17:30 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

Yes Gertie was amazing ..toured the length of OZ ..

TC Olivia did ok too 95/96 season .
Started in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and ended up 6 days later in the Great Australian Bight.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1453433 - 19/02/2018 17:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Sepo]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Sepo
Models might just be giving you your 12 day fix by the look of it Popeye... GFS and EC hinting at something in 12 - 14 days.

Might only be 9 days Sepo. Even better.
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#1453436 - 19/02/2018 18:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7384
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Wow. What was Broomes total rainfall for this cyclone?

....explains why the stormwater drains in Broome were so deep when I visited in dusty 37C conditions Oct '16!!

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#1453440 - 19/02/2018 18:46 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Just over 500mm Petros. Which takes us within approx 25mm of the wettest annual total (78yrs) for Broome of 1496mm. Wettest Jan on Record, Wettest Feb on record. Just inland 10kms West Roebuck has had over 2000mm already. The best thing though is we have 315 days of the year to go. WOWOW
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#1453443 - 19/02/2018 18:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7384
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
....and you were there to experience it! smile

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#1453462 - 19/02/2018 20:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2504
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Just over 500mm Petros. Which takes us within approx 25mm of the wettest annual total (78yrs) for Broome of 1496mm. Wettest Jan on Record, Wettest Feb on record. Just inland 10kms West Roebuck has had over 2000mm already. The best thing though is we have 315 days of the year to go. WOWOW


You'll have rainforest soon, and we'll be semi-arid. :-/

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#1453469 - 19/02/2018 21:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: desieboy]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 443
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: desieboy

Yes Gertie was amazing ..toured the length of OZ ..

TC Olivia did ok too 95/96 season .
Started in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and ended up 6 days later in the Great Australian Bight.


According to this map it came through the same area as Kelvin, went right across Australia and nearly made to New Caledonia.
http://www.australiasevereweather.com/tropical_cyclones/1995_1996/bom/tropical_cyclone_gertie.htm


Edited by Red Watch (19/02/2018 21:33)

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#1453485 - 19/02/2018 22:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Ah yeah sorry Popeye 12 to 14 days is the follow up to the 9 - 10 day one..😜

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#1453497 - 20/02/2018 00:25 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3825
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
A word of caution with track maps - they generally run from the first point of an identifiable system to the point that a system is either no longer identifiable or has gone extratropical. Certainly doesn't imply that it was at cyclone intensity for the duration. There have also been some changes over time in conventions over whether systems were/weren't named when over land, although nothing major from the 1990s onwards.

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#1453614 - 20/02/2018 18:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

Ex Kelvin still packing a punch in the interior..

l.Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia


TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST


Severe Weather Warning

for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL

For people in parts of North Interior and South Interior districts.


Issued at 10:32 am Tuesday, 20 February 2018.


Weather Situation:
At 10:30am AWST on Tuesday EX Tropical Cyclone Kelvin was estimated to be 180 kilometres to the southeast of Parnngurr, and 250 kilometres to the northeast of Carnegie, moving slowly towards the south southeast.


The low is expected to cause a period of WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour which could cause DAMAGE TO HOMES AND PROPERTY. The strongest winds will be in areas close to the low centre, initially about northern parts of the South Interior then extending southward during Tuesday.


HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over the warning area.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1453841 - 22/02/2018 09:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17592
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Just dumped 78mm on Eucla as it made its way out into the Bight...

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#1453876 - 22/02/2018 13:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

Can see on the map the soaking rain that TC Kelvin bought to W.A in the last week as it travelled southwards .


_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1454161 - 23/02/2018 21:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17592
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
You need to update it, missing the rainfall along the sth coast.

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