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#1452648 - 14/02/2018 12:48 Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
We may as well get a new thread going for what may turn out to be quite an interesting future Cyclone development off the WA coast.

It has been called Invest 91S

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 133.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 131.5E, APPROXIMATELY
54 NM SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 131253Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING REGION OF LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH LARGE AREAS OF
FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP IN AS CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DUE TO A NEARBY POINT SOURCE,
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS) JUST OFFSHORE.
91S IS CURRENTLY CONSOLIDATING OVER LAND, HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE 91S WILL TRACK SOUTHWEST ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. IT
IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER 91S WILL TRACK OVERWATER, BUT RAPID
CONSOLIDATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HIGHLY PROBABLE IF AND WHEN
IT DOES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.


Edited by Mick10 (17/02/2018 19:31)
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#1452652 - 14/02/2018 13:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
It is showing some nice initial shape for a system that is only in its early days. Be a beautiful sight to watch this one unfold in the next few days.
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#1452653 - 14/02/2018 13:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Darwin airport received 73 mm in the last 24 hrs from this one.

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#1452676 - 14/02/2018 15:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
What is GFS doing with the LOW / Cyclone on its latest run? scouring the coast from Broome to Hedland and then doing a loop the loop before crossing?

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#1452681 - 14/02/2018 15:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
If this system can clear land, there is no doubt it will be a severe system on landfall.


Edited by Dawgggg (14/02/2018 15:52)
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#1452692 - 14/02/2018 16:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Wow its cranking along. Maybe a bit to fast for my liking. It would be nice to see it propped up and go West from where it currently is, push off the coast around Kuri Bay, slow down in speed, rapidly develop, then get captured and sent SSE scraping offshore of Broome and hitting Bidgy to 80 Mile Beach caravan Park as a CAT 3+. Nice little shake up for Broome again but hopefully nothing to nasty. Am I wanting too much haha. Probs be Hedlands to Karratha.
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#1452694 - 14/02/2018 16:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
The speed of the rain squalls coming through Darwin in the last hour has increased significantly(checkout Darwin radar).It looks like it's starting to get some teeth.As you say Dawgggg time over land will be the telling factor.

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#1452699 - 14/02/2018 17:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah they look nice and fast darwindix. Anything squally/damaging with them?
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#1452701 - 14/02/2018 17:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
I think that is pretty close. Popeye. My vote for what it is worth. Cat 3 plus landing between Hedland and 80mile or cat1 to 2 pardoo to Bidgy.

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#1452703 - 14/02/2018 17:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
I think that is pretty close. Popeye. My vote for what it is worth. Cat 3 plus landing between Hedland and 80mile or cat1 to 2 pardoo to Bidgy.

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#1452704 - 14/02/2018 17:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Nothing too severe Popeye and I don't think anything worse will come out of this for us.But did notice that a central core/eye has just appeared on the radar images.

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#1452706 - 14/02/2018 17:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Just to correct myself on the last call about the core eye .i do understand that certain strengths have to be reached before an eye appears.Someone with more technical knowledge may be able to enlighten me on this .I just think this system is organising itself pretty quickly.

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#1452718 - 14/02/2018 18:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Hurricane force Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 4172
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1

Issued at 2:44 pm WST on Wednesday 14 February 2018
Headline:

A developing tropical low is expected to track across the north Kimberley and may develop into a tropical cyclone off the northwest Kimberley coast on Friday or Saturday.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone

None.
Watch Zone

Kuri Bay to Port Hedland, inlcuding Broome.
Cancelled Zone

None.
Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 30 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 14.1 degrees South 129.3 degrees East, estimated to be 195 kilometres north northeast of Kununurra and 295 kilometres east of Kalumburu.

Movement: west southwest at 19 kilometres per hour.

A developing tropical low is expected to move over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf late on Wednesday and then across the north Kimberley during Thursday. Late Thursday or during Friday the low is expected to move off the northwest Kimberley coast and may develop into a tropical cyclone during Friday or Saturday.
Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal parts between Kuri Bay and Bidyadanga, including Broome during Friday afternoon. GALES may extend further southwest to Wallal Downs and Port Hedland late Friday or early Saturday.
Recommended Action:

DFES advises that there are no community alerts at present.

Communities between Kuri Bay and Port Hedland, including Broome should listen for the next advice.
Next Advice:

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm AWST Wednesday 14 February.

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#1452720 - 14/02/2018 18:41 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Here we go again then....

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#1452738 - 14/02/2018 19:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
croc crew Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2007
Posts: 187
Loc: Maningrida, Arnhem Land, NT
I'm pretty sure we had this system in its' infancy over the last few days, with the rain finally easing as of early this morning. Sure is nice to see some blue sky this afternoon. Happy to push this one along as it grows and send it to the guys over in WA.

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#1452817 - 15/02/2018 13:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3574
Loc: Broome

Seems like it is going to be squeezed southwards after crossing off the coast under the influence off ridge near Exmouth.
Going to have a short lifespan as a TC though.
May come closer to Broome than expected...

My plants needs a rest ...came back from 6 weeks hols and my garden has been reshaped...
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#1452819 - 15/02/2018 13:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
Yes my garden is looking very open and light, thanks to the last 3..my roof has a leake with the crazy amoint of rain from the last. Hoping we dont get that much rain this time. But despite all this I cant help but be excited.

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#1452821 - 15/02/2018 13:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3574
Loc: Broome


Yes Ningergirl a bit exciting... But like you don't need or want too much rain or strong winds.

Got lots of mould on the kitchen ceiling too ...

Joys of living in the tropics...
Come back from hols always got heaps to do...

Think a few will be stocking up on groceries today after last one ..
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#1452919 - 15/02/2018 19:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
Latest track mapa now say impact in either east Pilbata or west Kimberly...can't wait to see what develops tomorrow. I think east Pilbara would be the safer bet surely!

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#1452955 - 15/02/2018 22:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Kelvin (91S) - Indian Ocean Feb 2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3574
Loc: Broome

Bit of a re curve forecast happening in a couple of days.

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