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#1452478 - 13/02/2018 13:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2809
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Can we all agree to disagree and move on?
_________________________
Lane Cove Weather - WU

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#1452490 - 13/02/2018 13:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2289
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
I think we are in a dry stage and have been for the past ten years.

What rain we do get comes in deluges, which when you look at generalised statistics, makes it look like average rain has fallen. But 300mm falling overnight is different to 300mm falling over thirty days.

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#1452492 - 13/02/2018 14:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 480
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: RC


What rain we do get comes in deluges,


This may be of interest:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL068509/abstract;jsessionid=E3B3493ED4136AF6576F345264F25CA7.f04t02


For the record I am avoiding the climate change topic ... but the research of storm intensification is relevant

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#1452532 - 13/02/2018 18:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7128
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
I for one totally acknowledge that a weak La Nina in summer (IF this describes last 2 months accurately) is very bad for Queensland rainfall - random deluges aside.

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#1452670 - 14/02/2018 14:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
ifishcq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2018
Posts: 79
Loc: Rockhampton
I'll take an el nino event over a weak la nina like this anyday, a week la nina obviously brings my dryer conditions to most of qld with drought conditions likely, Rocky is bone dry and roasting hot.

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#1452755 - 14/02/2018 21:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 480
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
SAM or internationally referred to as AAO has been positive since mid Nov.
Is that uncommon for the Austral summer?
I know a lot of the focus on SAM influence is usually southern winter rain, but is it an influence of note for summer? And is this an unusual summer SAM?

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#1452760 - 14/02/2018 21:44 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 375
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Hi Flowin generally a positive SAM would mean preferential rainfall for NSW and VIC as the High Pressure systems would sit in the bight allowing tropical systems to come South, although this summer has been a weird one and much of NSW sits in deficits.
Southern Annular Mode BOM

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#1452772 - 14/02/2018 23:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 480
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Thanks ashestoashes. I think this summer will be in record books, for uniqueness or something ....

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#1452816 - 15/02/2018 13:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5194
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Some initial forecasts on the next round of the MJO:

BoM shows it weaker across our region:



EC looking remarkably similar:



But...latest CFS already showing it stronger as it heads back into 1:



CFS picked up the really strong MJO before EC this time around, though overdid it a little. Seems to be more on the mark that EC but perhaps that is only the recent run playing tricks on my memory.

Also of interest - the latest 3.4 predictions show a big drop back into Nina territory through next Spring, so obviously picking up on factors beyond the impacts of the current MJO:



Can be interesting and useful to look back through the posts in the post-mortem to see what worked and what didn't...looking forward to quoting my El Nino post and this one in 6 months when we know what is happening!

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#1452826 - 15/02/2018 14:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3154
Loc: Buderim
The current CFS nino forecast is the coolest of all the models on BOM's page. The warmest is the Canadian forecast. Interestingly, the Canadian also have a multi-model forecast using a larger set of models than BOM references, which is forecasting roughly the same as the Canadian model. There are several models not included on the BOM page that are predicting much warmer results. Two of these are quite new and from Chinese research centers and appear to be trying out some new ideas so it will be interesting to see how they go.

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#1452872 - 15/02/2018 17:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2305
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Not sure why we continue to focus on the outliers and ignore the majority which indicate continued cooling...

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#1452882 - 15/02/2018 17:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3154
Loc: Buderim
The majority indicate warming.


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#1452884 - 15/02/2018 17:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2305
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Clearly was talking about the image posted above by KevD, especially since you *just* posted that image.

Now, are they same models you told us last year that we would be in El Nino by now?

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#1452886 - 15/02/2018 17:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8525
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
This last MJO was much stronger than the previous one (which Mike said would bring about an El nino in 2 months time), yet models still indicate an overall cooling trend.

Therefore, there's more to ENSO than just MJO

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#1452893 - 15/02/2018 18:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Long Road Home]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2305
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
This last MJO was much stronger than the previous one (which Mike said would bring about an El nino in 2 months time), yet models still indicate an overall cooling trend.

Therefore, there's more to ENSO than just MJO


Agree.

And this from almost exactly 12 months ago:

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber 17/2/17
Last year was probably one of the worse recent years for model performance with CFS having a major glitch, switching from el nino to strong La Nina and then moderating later in the year. JMA continually forecasted la nina long after it appeared that the chances of anything significant were over and other models gave up. NASA went for solid La Nina early and switched to neutral mid year. EC was consistently forecasting neutral all year.

None of the models in 2014 predicted a monster el nino, with the strongest model forecasts just barely above 1.5, and the average of all models mostly between 0.5 and 1. Those headlines were based on human speculation following a record size WWB and Kelvin wave.

On the accuracy of past model projections I'd say that a strong el nino, or anything on the cool side of neutral is now unlikely, but we could still get anything in between....


Significant model error is duly noted, so why then should we pay attention to the current run? Nothing this last 6 months has proceeded according to what we know on a limited basis about ENSO. The much claimed WWB's; MEGA MJO's, increased rainfall for east coast Aus etc - something is happening and we don't know what or why.

Is it because the La Nina started too late to push south? Is it because the SAM is driving conditions here? What about these ultra-warm Tasman sea temps. Usually warmer seas = lower pressure; yet we're seeing higher pressure and mega-ridges. It's all very weird.


Edited by Kino (15/02/2018 18:07)

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#1452897 - 15/02/2018 18:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7128
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
It seems to me that we are all trying to fit current ocean/atmospheric conditions to match some previous recorded year or other and then make predictions based on what was recorded in the period thereafter.

What if the closest match to the present situation potentially may be from say, 1, 2 3, or more centuries ago?

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#1452909 - 15/02/2018 19:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3154
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
This last MJO was much stronger than the previous one (which Mike said would bring about an El nino in 2 months time), yet models still indicate an overall cooling trend.

Therefore, there's more to ENSO than just MJO


Agree.

And this from almost exactly 12 months ago:

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber 17/2/17
Last year was probably one of the worse recent years for model performance with CFS having a major glitch, switching from el nino to strong La Nina and then moderating later in the year. JMA continually forecasted la nina long after it appeared that the chances of anything significant were over and other models gave up. NASA went for solid La Nina early and switched to neutral mid year. EC was consistently forecasting neutral all year.

None of the models in 2014 predicted a monster el nino, with the strongest model forecasts just barely above 1.5, and the average of all models mostly between 0.5 and 1. Those headlines were based on human speculation following a record size WWB and Kelvin wave.

On the accuracy of past model projections I'd say that a strong el nino, or anything on the cool side of neutral is now unlikely, but we could still get anything in between....


Significant model error is duly noted, so why then should we pay attention to the current run?


Models don't predict 12 months in the future. Between 6 and 9 months depending on the model. The six months following this prediction were warm neutral.

Past predictions:


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#1452910 - 15/02/2018 19:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Long Road Home]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3154
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
This last MJO was much stronger than the previous one (which Mike said would bring about an El nino in 2 months time)


I said there would be warming within 2 months, which there was. I never specifically said el nino within 2 months, and never expected that.

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#1452918 - 15/02/2018 19:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2305
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
This last MJO was much stronger than the previous one (which Mike said would bring about an El nino in 2 months time)


I said there would be warming within 2 months, which there was. I never specifically said el nino within 2 months, and never expected that.


Which of course is nicely vague because you only need 0.1c and one would claim a verified forecast. But when one turns to the scheme of things; 0.1 within colder anomalies is negligible warming and therefore insignificant.

When one turns to the data; there has been no substantive "warming" at all recorded for almost one month=, despite mega MJO's, WWB's and biased ENSO models.:
Index to 21/1/2018 to 28/1/2018 to 4/2/2018 to 11/2/2018
NINO3 −0.8 C −0.8 C −0.8 C −0.8 C
NINO3.4 −0.6 C −0.6 C −0.6 C −0.6 C
NINO4 −0.2 C −0.3 C −0.3 C −0.2 C

I do believe it was also claimed for the past 2 MJO's that the La Nina & colder anomalies would be "wiped out". That prediction, which is readily more verifiable, is absolutely incorrect.

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#1452921 - 15/02/2018 20:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2305
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Models don't predict 12 months in the future. Between 6 and 9 months depending on the model. The six months following this prediction were warm neutral.

Past predictions:



No one mentioned models forecasting over a period of 12 months. The point was a similar claim "or anything on the cool side of neutral is now unlikely" was made exactly 12 months ago and that was incorrect. Hence the point of model reliability for ENSO appears to be Low - Moderate at best.

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