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#1452773 - 14/02/2018 23:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 268
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
I like that view and imagery.of Gita
World thread now home for Gita discussion ?

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#1452781 - 15/02/2018 05:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Flowin]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 165
Originally Posted By: Flowin
I like that view and imagery.of Gita
World thread now home for Gita discussion ?


I like that idea. Imagine what one could potentially learn from the systems which develop in other jurisdictions - egL Hurrican Irma.

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#1452786 - 15/02/2018 08:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3145
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Ext GFS has a depression hanging around central C.S. & then drifting close to SEQ at end of month. One to watch? Havnt looked at other models.

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#1452838 - 15/02/2018 15:35 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Steamy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2004
Posts: 695
Loc: Mackay Qld Australia
On the local rags inter-web page ..........more bold forecasting

A TROPICAL cyclone set to impact Queensland will develop in the Coral Sea in the next fortnight, according to one long-range weather forecaster.

But official Bureau of Meteorology observers are yet to issue any predictions or warnings.

Hayden Walker from Walker's Weather is predicting the cyclone will begin developing late February and cross the coast between North and Central Queensland in early March.

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#1452898 - 15/02/2018 18:26 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Steamy]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 165
Originally Posted By: Steamy
On the local rags inter-web page ..........more bold forecasting

A TROPICAL cyclone set to impact Queensland will develop in the Coral Sea in the next fortnight, according to one long-range weather forecaster.

But official Bureau of Meteorology observers are yet to issue any predictions or warnings.

Hayden Walker from Walker's Weather is predicting the cyclone will begin developing late February and cross the coast between North and Central Queensland in early March.



This is just my thoughts, but I think some need to accept that there would be qualified Meteorologists / Mathematicians / Statisticians / etc who could have worked for the BOM at some point, possibly as Consultants, and through the association possess the credentials to do this type of work. The reality is that the skillsets appear complimentary by nature and thus, people could learn by this.

Occasionally, Long Range Weather Forecasters have been in the media spotlight re predictions (generally in terms of seasonality, etc). Simply suggesting that it's not new - refer to website.

Personally I think there's bigger challenges with the sensationalism attached to way that media in the main, represent these systems. Thankfully though, I think they're getting a little bit better in providing information other than 'the bold statement', 'shock headlines' or not disclosing information specific to forecasts.

Just thinking that the narrative needs to be considerate of those whom have specialised in this space, have put the hard work into attaining the necessary credentials, as opposed to simply putting them in a box and labelling them as 'x'. I think we're better than that.

This is just a general statement re media comments, as opposed to singling our the specific comment included as the reference.



Edited by MangroveJack70 (15/02/2018 18:27)

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#1452899 - 15/02/2018 18:32 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
amphetamarine Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/03/2004
Posts: 288
Loc: Cairns
My orchid is pretty good at predicting rain events 2/3 days out. usually flowers before we get some decent rain. Nothing at the moment. frown

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#1452905 - 15/02/2018 18:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: amphetamarine]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 165
Originally Posted By: amphetamarine
My orchid is pretty good at predicting rain events 2/3 days out. usually flowers before we get some decent rain. Nothing at the moment. frown


smile

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#1452947 - 15/02/2018 21:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2244
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
He sets out a timeframe, lets see how that goes, 2 weeks is nothing in the scheme of things - wont be waiting long to find out if he is onto something or not with his long range work
_________________________
Wandjina - Cloud and rain spirits from Australian Aboriginal mythology

Daisey Bates - The passing of the aborigines.

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#1452957 - 15/02/2018 22:48 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Steamy]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 613
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Originally Posted By: Steamy
On the local rags inter-web page ..........more bold forecasting

A TROPICAL cyclone set to impact Queensland will develop in the Coral Sea in the next fortnight, according to one long-range weather forecaster.

But official Bureau of Meteorology observers are yet to issue any predictions or warnings.

Hayden Walker from Walker's Weather is predicting the cyclone will begin developing late February and cross the coast between North and Central Queensland in early March.


He also preducted above average rainfall for townsville from December...we know how that didnt happen. This guy is another moron talking out his rear.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (feb 2018]: 216.7mm (Ave 435mm)
Jan 2018: 217.4mm (avg 465mm)
YTD 2018 434.1mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1452991 - 16/02/2018 11:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Kowree Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2012
Posts: 84
Loc: Utchee Creek via Innisfail.
I watched cyclones on WZ and followed the forums at my computer desk in Victoria with avid morbid fascination never thinking I would ever visit, let alone live in an area where cyclones occur.
Half the time I have no idea of what the hell is being spoken of but I'm learning.
But, my question will most likely be thought of as dumb but I am curious. I have been watching Cyclone Gita for the last week (on earth.nullschool.net) moseying around the islands causing grief and now it is descending upon New Caledonia and I am wondering - why will it peter out and hit NZ as a fiercesome storm - why won't it just keep going west as it has done for a while and hit say Rockhampton?
All though, I must admit, it does seem to be doing a slight lefty towards the south as I speak.

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#1452993 - 16/02/2018 12:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5009
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
There is generally an upper level trough that reaches up from the tasman sea and this serves to send the majority of systems SE to NZ. Tjey can trave a long way west but generally do it from a mlre northerly section of the western Pacific

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#1452995 - 16/02/2018 12:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Kowree]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6826
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Kowree
I watched cyclones on WZ and followed the forums at my computer desk in Victoria with avid morbid fascination never thinking I would ever visit, let alone live in an area where cyclones occur.
Half the time I have no idea of what the hell is being spoken of but I'm learning.
But, my question will most likely be thought of as dumb but I am curious. I have been watching Cyclone Gita for the last week (on earth.nullschool.net) moseying around the islands causing grief and now it is descending upon New Caledonia and I am wondering - why will it peter out and hit NZ as a fiercesome storm - why won't it just keep going west as it has done for a while and hit say Rockhampton?
All though, I must admit, it does seem to be doing a slight lefty towards the south as I speak.


First things first. Gita is nearing the end of the ridge (red shading) which steered her westward for the past 4-5 days. Remember, the steering around these ridges are anti-clockwise. Had that ridge (red shading) extended further west towards our coast then she would have no doubt continued on her journey towards the QLD coast. But it isn't to be - as you can see, the ridge stops between Oz & NZ, so she will fall along the western edge of this ridge. Second phase will be a big trough (blue shading over TAS / VIC / NSW) which will come in from the west and 'capture' her, which will lead to NZ eventually copping it.



Unfortunately those troughs have been a regular occurrence through that area for the past month or two, and are, imo, a big reason the east coast has been so dry (as they not only modify the steering flow to redirect anything in the Coral Sea SE, but they also drive up dry subtropical air behind them).

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#1452999 - 16/02/2018 13:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mega]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 613
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Ive never worked out where ridging is on charts. How do you know that area of red is where the ridging is?

Nevermind...its not a self done chart its a chart from a site.


Edited by rainthisway (16/02/2018 13:15)
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (feb 2018]: 216.7mm (Ave 435mm)
Jan 2018: 217.4mm (avg 465mm)
YTD 2018 434.1mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1453020 - 16/02/2018 16:23 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mega]
Kowree Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2012
Posts: 84
Loc: Utchee Creek via Innisfail.
Thanks Mega and Brett Guy, much appreciated.
The weather down in Victoria and South Australia was actually quite predictable - it mainly came from the west or sometimes from the north if there were cyclones up the top of WA or most dreaded, the stinking hot northerlies in summer and generally a bushfire to go with it.
But here, we seem to have more influences which makes it interesting.
I'm still going to keep my eye on Gita and see how she pans out. My homework.
Poor NZ, they are copping hidings from these ex's.


Edited by Kowree (16/02/2018 16:27)

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#1453052 - 16/02/2018 18:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 613
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
If only the latest gfs long range forecast came true on weatherzone. GoC TL coming inland just at the right place....unlikely but still nice.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (feb 2018]: 216.7mm (Ave 435mm)
Jan 2018: 217.4mm (avg 465mm)
YTD 2018 434.1mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1453105 - 16/02/2018 22:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25052
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
can only wish, but the signs are ok that it will at least move SE (at this stage)
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
January 2018 total - 144.2mm (274mm)
February 2018 total - 36.8mm (283mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 181.0mm (1122mm)

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#1453126 - 17/02/2018 05:37 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 613
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Lets hope it holds but not holding my breath.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (feb 2018]: 216.7mm (Ave 435mm)
Jan 2018: 217.4mm (avg 465mm)
YTD 2018 434.1mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1453132 - 17/02/2018 06:58 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25052
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
gfs already moved the low 200km off the coast on 12z run.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
January 2018 total - 144.2mm (274mm)
February 2018 total - 36.8mm (283mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 181.0mm (1122mm)

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#1453149 - 17/02/2018 10:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1747
Loc: Kingaroy
EC/GFS have dropped it by the looks of it.

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#1453178 - 17/02/2018 14:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 613
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Yep. Dropped...story of our life. Maybe this will be the first year to have no cyclone in australias area of responsibilty in the CS.

Broomes year to date total is crazy. Over 1300mm. My year to date is around 300mm at the most


Edited by rainthisway (17/02/2018 15:01)
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (feb 2018]: 216.7mm (Ave 435mm)
Jan 2018: 217.4mm (avg 465mm)
YTD 2018 434.1mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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