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#1453152 - 17/02/2018 11:09 Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7543
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
This non-weather of late in Vic is very boring. So rather than start an "unseasonably cool mornings" thread to ease the boredom, how about we watch and hope that any remnants of Kelvin can arrive and coincide with a cool front from the bight?

GFS's current "out there" for for next Friday:


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#1453160 - 17/02/2018 12:10 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 573
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Yeah warm and a tad humid and unstable mid and late week, but could miss out or get a good dump time will tell

Big clear out next weekend anyway u look at it.

Getting close to getting cold again not liking it its almost march
_________________________
Bring on the STORMS

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#1453181 - 17/02/2018 15:33 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2690
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
I felt this February is cool down at night and mild 30s day time.
Not much horrible NW winds like 2016/2017 summer.

Heatwave more likely in March when cold upper starts get stronger and jet stream move northward and horrible Gusty NW to come.

Chart has updated Victoria looks like up-to 30mm rain for Friday 23rd. Still too early to pin.

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#1453193 - 17/02/2018 18:42 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7543
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yeah, a notably cool early morning again here today, warmed up to 31C before seabreeze returned after a 7 day hiatus.

GFS modest for us for the remnants on latest run, at least gives us something to yap on about:


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#1453303 - 18/02/2018 18:24 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7543
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS has got us Gipplsander's a bit more interested!:


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#1453304 - 18/02/2018 18:27 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1321
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
I like it petros!!👍👍
Now we all know a weeks a long time
In weather 😂😂

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#1453314 - 18/02/2018 19:24 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Blackacubra Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/04/2004
Posts: 775
Loc: Sunraysia, Victoria
Had 38 here today, but a cool change has arrived, complete with dust storm, and strong wind.

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#1453324 - 18/02/2018 20:53 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2116
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Pre thread date, but if ACCESS is on the $$ we could have 1/2" in Nth Gipp in the next 24 hrs.

Last rain recorded in Sale was 25MM on 30/01/2018.

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#1453348 - 19/02/2018 10:20 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2690
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Feels like already early Autumn cool nights and warm daytime and no rain this month.

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#1453402 - 19/02/2018 15:52 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2116
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Certainly cooled off ca, beaut weather with 6mm so far, raining at the mo' .

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#1453410 - 19/02/2018 16:32 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Had 5.5mm in think mist and drizzle since about 4.30am.

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#1453425 - 19/02/2018 17:16 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 292
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
Damn windy in Melbourne today! Gita is that you?
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Wunderground

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#1453434 - 19/02/2018 18:07 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7543
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS shows Kelvins carcas to slip SW of Vic down onto Tassie into the weekend:



IMGUR issues..... if it doesent come good by itself, Mods - please delete this post.


Edited by Petros (19/02/2018 18:10)

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#1453442 - 19/02/2018 18:48 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1321
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Only 2mm up here today which pretty
Much all fell overnight. Few light drizzle
Showers today but to lite to register!

Plenty of easterly wind tho lol
Just about to get blown off the hill
I reckon!!

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#1453453 - 19/02/2018 20:01 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2690
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Reached 27c and humid with windy, so overnight had 2mm rain do nothing.

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#1453613 - 20/02/2018 18:47 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7543
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS for the pending weekend:



Certainly no early Autumn break rain-wise - but welcome accumulated 1/2" or so for some areas, and far better alternative to a typical late Feb 42C N/W'ly to burn us up!

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#1453630 - 20/02/2018 20:13 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2690
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
No early Autumn Well, as this Thursday reach 35c then cool down to Sat 24c/12c and Sun 27c/12c...and yes might reach 40s most Northern Country next Tuesday 27th and Wednesday 28th...The pattern is bit messy..

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#1453642 - 20/02/2018 21:18 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1321
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Really sweating on the out come of this
Weekends event!
Sitting on 10mm for the month up here,
I'm hopping we can scrape out min 1/2",
That would be a start.

Hard to know which way this one will fall
In terms of rainfall quantities?
Access g says bugger all but gfs hints
At 10-15mm?

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#1453662 - 20/02/2018 23:16 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My first post since last week from here in Belgrave. Pardon my absence, I've been very busy, and I'm currently recovering from nose surgery which happened last Friday. frown

Wednesday February 14th 2018

Low: 19.6C High: 27.2C Rain: TRACE


Thursday February 15th 2018

Low: 11.8C High: 25.4C Rain: TRACE


Friday February 16th 2018

Low: 14.7C High: 27.6C Rain: TRACE


Saturday February 17th 2018

Low: 9.7C High: 32.6C Rain: 0mm


Sunday February 18th 2018

Low: 12.0C High: 32.0C Rain: 0mm


Monday February 19th 2018

Low: 15.7C High: 24.7C Rain: 1.0mm


Tuesday February 20th 2018

Low: 12.6C High: 30.9C Rain: 0mm


By and large, it's been a continuation of the generally stable and very, VERY dry late-summer weather of recent weeks, but with a bit more variety tossed in. The mornings in particular have felt almost autumnal recently, being quite chilly at times, with generally warm to hot afternoons to follow.


Very wild temperature gyrations over the course of 24-48 hours in response to the strong cold front that swept through on Wednesday February 14th! Kinda reminded me of a stormy cold front in springtime.

Following the hot, dry, breezy top of 34.1C on Tuesday February 13th, strengthening, gale-force northerly wind ahead of the impending cold front caused the temperature to dip to only 19.6C that night, before rebounding to around 23C after sunrise. crazy

In the 1-2 hour window prior to the passage of the cold front itself, several waves of fast-moving, locally heavy showers and thunderstorms swept through or else brushed by. The most significant of these waves of stormy weather was a developing squall line, which side-swiped us just barely to the south around 8:30am. It was very dark with impressive cumulonimbus cloud development, and I heard a few occasional rumbles of thunder (I didn't see any lightning), but we only copped a few dozen spits of rain as the northern tail of the storm front rushed eastwards above us. The heaviest precipitation and most dangerous weather was to the south and southeast of Belgrave.

The temperature dropped sharply following the cold front which struck at 9am, bottoming out at 16.2C around an hour later. Conditions remained overcast for a several hours after the front and preceding shower and thunderstorm had moved on (with only a couple more spits of rain after 9am), before mostly sunny skies followed from lunchtime right throughout the afternoon and the temperature climbed back to 27.2C. Showers continued to sweep through the coastal areas further south of metropolitan Melbourne.

But it was very, VERY windy throughout the day (at least until the evening), with lots of tree limbs down, some of which were quite large (a few small trees were also uprooted), and the air tinged by a dirty, dusty haze! frown


A second cold front brushed by late on Thursday February 15th, bringing breezy conditions but only a very gradual change in wind direction. The day overall was warm, humid and mostly cloudy, but with plenty of sunshine until around mid-afternoon; light showers then occurred until dinnertime.


Conditions were gloomy and almost winter-like early in the morning on Friday February 16th in the wake of the cold front, but the afternoon was quite pleasing with abundant warm sunshine and clear skies! smile


A rather cold night was followed by a rather hot, mostly sunny afternoon on Saturday February 17th. High cloud was in response to a third cold front to the southwest that was interacting with a trough reaching south through WA from Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kelvin over the Pilbara region.


A temperature spread of exactly 20 degrees occurred on Sunday February 18th (low of 12.0C, high of 32.0C) before the cold front and associated trough moved through that night. The day itself was mostly sunny, before cloud increased with rain sweeping through overnight. The rain was very nice to hear on the roof and sounded quite heavy around 1am in the morning on Monday February 19th, but ceased not long after 2am. Only 1mm collected, and no thunderstorm activity resulted unfortunately.


It was mostly dry weather for the remainder of Monday February 19th as a high pressure system (centered over or near Tasmania) followed the cold front and trough.

However the high ended up being "squeezed" on three sides during the afternoon and evening: to the north by the trough which had swung into NSW/ACT and Queensland; to the east by the cold front which had raced into the Tasman Sea and began interacting with Tropical Cyclone Gita which was heading down through the South Pacific towards New Zealand; and to the west/northwest by Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kelvin and another associated trough dipping south over WA!

As a result, a very tight pressure gradient developed over Bass Strait. This whipped up dangerous gale-force easterly/southeasterly winds across parts of Victoria during the afternoon and evening! My highest gust was clocked at 46.4km/h, and we had a large tree limb come down on our property but fortunately without causing damage, with blackouts occurring nearby. frown


The winds eased early this morning (Tuesday February 20th). The day was hot and sunny, although high cloud started spreading over the western horizon from the northwest in response to Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kelvin and the associated trough heading southeast through WA and Outback SA into the Bight.

At the last check it was around 17C. smile


It's been around 2 weeks since our last dangerous heatwave. We hit 42.1C on Wednesday February 7th, but haven't reached or exceeded 35C since then. Despite the fact that conditions in the past couple of weeks have been generally quite pleasing, as well as that we've had a bit of variety tossed in (including storms and blustery winds), and even with a bit of humidity, the ground is very dry and we now face a nasty bushfire risk!

We've recorded only 1mm of rain this month. And unless Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kelvin or some other major weather system can deliver us a major rain event and possible storm outbreak between now and the end of the month then February 2018 will go down in my books as my driest month of all time, beating January 2015 which during which I measured a mere 3.2mm (but that was in large part due to me being in Corryong and Merimbula for much of the time). frown

Based on my records, the average February rainfall is about 65mm. We're going to need a HUGE amount of precipitation to make it to even 50mm!

Latest forecasts of have between 15-20mm for us between Friday and Monday, better than nothing but still not enough! mad

I'm just glad the first two months of Summer 2017/2018 have been nice and wet, with 177mm in December and 61.1mm in January. Such a pity February hasn't followed suit. The 29.5mm I collected on January 30th seems to be distant memory now. frown

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#1453880 - 22/02/2018 14:08 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2690
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Nice light showers of 3.6mm...20.8c...no more dust from surface.

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