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#1453152 - 17/02/2018 11:09 Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6886
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
This non-weather of late in Vic is very boring. So rather than start an "unseasonably cool mornings" thread to ease the boredom, how about we watch and hope that any remnants of Kelvin can arrive and coincide with a cool front from the bight?

GFS's current "out there" for for next Friday:


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#1453160 - 17/02/2018 12:10 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 552
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Yeah warm and a tad humid and unstable mid and late week, but could miss out or get a good dump time will tell

Big clear out next weekend anyway u look at it.

Getting close to getting cold again not liking it its almost march
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#1453181 - 17/02/2018 15:33 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
I felt this February is cool down at night and mild 30s day time.
Not much horrible NW winds like 2016/2017 summer.

Heatwave more likely in March when cold upper starts get stronger and jet stream move northward and horrible Gusty NW to come.

Chart has updated Victoria looks like up-to 30mm rain for Friday 23rd. Still too early to pin.

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#1453193 - 17/02/2018 18:42 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6886
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yeah, a notably cool early morning again here today, warmed up to 31C before seabreeze returned after a 7 day hiatus.

GFS modest for us for the remnants on latest run, at least gives us something to yap on about:


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#1453303 - 18/02/2018 18:24 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6886
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS has got us Gipplsander's a bit more interested!:


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#1453304 - 18/02/2018 18:27 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1236
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
I like it petros!!👍👍
Now we all know a weeks a long time
In weather 😂😂

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#1453314 - 18/02/2018 19:24 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Blackacubra Offline
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Registered: 12/04/2004
Posts: 775
Loc: Sunraysia, Victoria
Had 38 here today, but a cool change has arrived, complete with dust storm, and strong wind.

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#1453324 - 18/02/2018 20:53 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1939
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
Pre thread date, but if ACCESS is on the $$ we could have 1/2" in Nth Gipp in the next 24 hrs.

Last rain recorded in Sale was 25MM on 30/01/2018.
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN 53.4MM FEB 14MM MARCH 18MM APRIL- 7mm

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#1453348 - 19/02/2018 10:20 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Feels like already early Autumn cool nights and warm daytime and no rain this month.

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#1453402 - 19/02/2018 15:52 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1939
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
Certainly cooled off ca, beaut weather with 6mm so far, raining at the mo' .
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2018 RAINFALL. JAN 53.4MM FEB 14MM MARCH 18MM APRIL- 7mm

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#1453410 - 19/02/2018 16:32 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 749
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Had 5.5mm in think mist and drizzle since about 4.30am.

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#1453425 - 19/02/2018 17:16 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Weather_Viewer Offline
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Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 287
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
Damn windy in Melbourne today! Gita is that you?
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#1453434 - 19/02/2018 18:07 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6886
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS shows Kelvins carcas to slip SW of Vic down onto Tassie into the weekend:



IMGUR issues..... if it doesent come good by itself, Mods - please delete this post.


Edited by Petros (19/02/2018 18:10)

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#1453442 - 19/02/2018 18:48 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1236
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Only 2mm up here today which pretty
Much all fell overnight. Few light drizzle
Showers today but to lite to register!

Plenty of easterly wind tho lol
Just about to get blown off the hill
I reckon!!

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#1453453 - 19/02/2018 20:01 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Reached 27c and humid with windy, so overnight had 2mm rain do nothing.

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#1453613 - 20/02/2018 18:47 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6886
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS for the pending weekend:



Certainly no early Autumn break rain-wise - but welcome accumulated 1/2" or so for some areas, and far better alternative to a typical late Feb 42C N/W'ly to burn us up!

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#1453630 - 20/02/2018 20:13 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
No early Autumn Well, as this Thursday reach 35c then cool down to Sat 24c/12c and Sun 27c/12c...and yes might reach 40s most Northern Country next Tuesday 27th and Wednesday 28th...The pattern is bit messy..

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#1453642 - 20/02/2018 21:18 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1236
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Really sweating on the out come of this
Weekends event!
Sitting on 10mm for the month up here,
I'm hopping we can scrape out min 1/2",
That would be a start.

Hard to know which way this one will fall
In terms of rainfall quantities?
Access g says bugger all but gfs hints
At 10-15mm?

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#1453662 - 20/02/2018 23:16 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Online   happy
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My first post since last week from here in Belgrave. Pardon my absence, I've been very busy, and I'm currently recovering from nose surgery which happened last Friday. frown

Wednesday February 14th 2018

Low: 19.6C High: 27.2C Rain: TRACE


Thursday February 15th 2018

Low: 11.8C High: 25.4C Rain: TRACE


Friday February 16th 2018

Low: 14.7C High: 27.6C Rain: TRACE


Saturday February 17th 2018

Low: 9.7C High: 32.6C Rain: 0mm


Sunday February 18th 2018

Low: 12.0C High: 32.0C Rain: 0mm


Monday February 19th 2018

Low: 15.7C High: 24.7C Rain: 1.0mm


Tuesday February 20th 2018

Low: 12.6C High: 30.9C Rain: 0mm


By and large, it's been a continuation of the generally stable and very, VERY dry late-summer weather of recent weeks, but with a bit more variety tossed in. The mornings in particular have felt almost autumnal recently, being quite chilly at times, with generally warm to hot afternoons to follow.


Very wild temperature gyrations over the course of 24-48 hours in response to the strong cold front that swept through on Wednesday February 14th! Kinda reminded me of a stormy cold front in springtime.

Following the hot, dry, breezy top of 34.1C on Tuesday February 13th, strengthening, gale-force northerly wind ahead of the impending cold front caused the temperature to dip to only 19.6C that night, before rebounding to around 23C after sunrise. crazy

In the 1-2 hour window prior to the passage of the cold front itself, several waves of fast-moving, locally heavy showers and thunderstorms swept through or else brushed by. The most significant of these waves of stormy weather was a developing squall line, which side-swiped us just barely to the south around 8:30am. It was very dark with impressive cumulonimbus cloud development, and I heard a few occasional rumbles of thunder (I didn't see any lightning), but we only copped a few dozen spits of rain as the northern tail of the storm front rushed eastwards above us. The heaviest precipitation and most dangerous weather was to the south and southeast of Belgrave.

The temperature dropped sharply following the cold front which struck at 9am, bottoming out at 16.2C around an hour later. Conditions remained overcast for a several hours after the front and preceding shower and thunderstorm had moved on (with only a couple more spits of rain after 9am), before mostly sunny skies followed from lunchtime right throughout the afternoon and the temperature climbed back to 27.2C. Showers continued to sweep through the coastal areas further south of metropolitan Melbourne.

But it was very, VERY windy throughout the day (at least until the evening), with lots of tree limbs down, some of which were quite large (a few small trees were also uprooted), and the air tinged by a dirty, dusty haze! frown


A second cold front brushed by late on Thursday February 15th, bringing breezy conditions but only a very gradual change in wind direction. The day overall was warm, humid and mostly cloudy, but with plenty of sunshine until around mid-afternoon; light showers then occurred until dinnertime.


Conditions were gloomy and almost winter-like early in the morning on Friday February 16th in the wake of the cold front, but the afternoon was quite pleasing with abundant warm sunshine and clear skies! smile


A rather cold night was followed by a rather hot, mostly sunny afternoon on Saturday February 17th. High cloud was in response to a third cold front to the southwest that was interacting with a trough reaching south through WA from Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kelvin over the Pilbara region.


A temperature spread of exactly 20 degrees occurred on Sunday February 18th (low of 12.0C, high of 32.0C) before the cold front and associated trough moved through that night. The day itself was mostly sunny, before cloud increased with rain sweeping through overnight. The rain was very nice to hear on the roof and sounded quite heavy around 1am in the morning on Monday February 19th, but ceased not long after 2am. Only 1mm collected, and no thunderstorm activity resulted unfortunately.


It was mostly dry weather for the remainder of Monday February 19th as a high pressure system (centered over or near Tasmania) followed the cold front and trough.

However the high ended up being "squeezed" on three sides during the afternoon and evening: to the north by the trough which had swung into NSW/ACT and Queensland; to the east by the cold front which had raced into the Tasman Sea and began interacting with Tropical Cyclone Gita which was heading down through the South Pacific towards New Zealand; and to the west/northwest by Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kelvin and another associated trough dipping south over WA!

As a result, a very tight pressure gradient developed over Bass Strait. This whipped up dangerous gale-force easterly/southeasterly winds across parts of Victoria during the afternoon and evening! My highest gust was clocked at 46.4km/h, and we had a large tree limb come down on our property but fortunately without causing damage, with blackouts occurring nearby. frown


The winds eased early this morning (Tuesday February 20th). The day was hot and sunny, although high cloud started spreading over the western horizon from the northwest in response to Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kelvin and the associated trough heading southeast through WA and Outback SA into the Bight.

At the last check it was around 17C. smile


It's been around 2 weeks since our last dangerous heatwave. We hit 42.1C on Wednesday February 7th, but haven't reached or exceeded 35C since then. Despite the fact that conditions in the past couple of weeks have been generally quite pleasing, as well as that we've had a bit of variety tossed in (including storms and blustery winds), and even with a bit of humidity, the ground is very dry and we now face a nasty bushfire risk!

We've recorded only 1mm of rain this month. And unless Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kelvin or some other major weather system can deliver us a major rain event and possible storm outbreak between now and the end of the month then February 2018 will go down in my books as my driest month of all time, beating January 2015 which during which I measured a mere 3.2mm (but that was in large part due to me being in Corryong and Merimbula for much of the time). frown

Based on my records, the average February rainfall is about 65mm. We're going to need a HUGE amount of precipitation to make it to even 50mm!

Latest forecasts of have between 15-20mm for us between Friday and Monday, better than nothing but still not enough! mad

I'm just glad the first two months of Summer 2017/2018 have been nice and wet, with 177mm in December and 61.1mm in January. Such a pity February hasn't followed suit. The 29.5mm I collected on January 30th seems to be distant memory now. frown

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#1453880 - 22/02/2018 14:08 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Nice light showers of 3.6mm...20.8c...no more dust from surface.

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#1453918 - 22/02/2018 19:03 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6298
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Car covered in dirt at station from few spots of rain. High of 22.6c. BOM radar technicians = quality.....
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#1454002 - 23/02/2018 09:30 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6886
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Humid, overcast and spitting at Maffra.

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#1454049 - 23/02/2018 12:29 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Clouds clearing from West now blue skies, 28c.

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#1454058 - 23/02/2018 13:27 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Stormcast chart showing thunderstorms will be widespread from SA border to central Victoria and somewhere between Ballarat and Geelong more likely heavy Thunderstorms around 4pm onward. And central Victoria to East tomorrow ...


Edited by chasers addict (23/02/2018 13:30)

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#1454093 - 23/02/2018 16:34 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1236
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Still nothing up here, few spots this morning
That didn't register even a trace of rain!!

All we can do is clutch at tommoz front and
Hope that delivers something?

Could be quiet warm and windy out ahead
Of this front by the look of it

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#1454107 - 23/02/2018 17:27 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Seem the West trough is very slow moving so SW Victoria are lucky get some drops.

Nice sunny and windy N/NE wind of 33c

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#1454109 - 23/02/2018 17:44 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
The Fishman Offline
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Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1139
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Watching the radar and satellite, the usual deflection is going on; it is being pushed southwest! Deflector shield is in place
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26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1454112 - 23/02/2018 18:12 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
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Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6298
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
1.4mm yesterday through last night and today. High today managed 30.4c
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#1454118 - 23/02/2018 18:46 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6886
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
A very warm and muggy overcast day here 33C. Rain spits this morning here not enough to record as a trace for here too.

Good to see Tassie get a licking from Kelvin as a farewell gesture.

For us, a drizzly overcast day looming for tomoz? - ticks off one more Feb day that isnt going to be a howling hot dry NW'er I guess.

Time to look out to next week, will we get humidity advected down from the NE??

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#1454247 - 24/02/2018 08:17 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1939
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
ACCESS looking better this AM, could get 1/2" in some north Gipps. areas.

Good chance of a bit more rain tomorrow, dried off in Sale but still grn grass around most residences, nice not to worry about grass fires etc in town grin
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN 53.4MM FEB 14MM MARCH 18MM APRIL- 7mm

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#1454258 - 24/02/2018 09:22 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6886
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
A muggy 30C here already, overcast with light N'ly.

Could be an early return to the 19th hole at Royal Maffrae this arvo if the expected arvo change is wet and gusty?

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#1454260 - 24/02/2018 09:32 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1236
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Currently a hot 31c with a howling nor wester
Blowing

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#1454276 - 24/02/2018 10:44 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Jilly Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/05/2007
Posts: 184
Loc: Warrnambool
Bliss! Lovely and cool, 17c dark and drizzly with a souwest wind.
Hair frizz day!

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#1454277 - 24/02/2018 10:51 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
The trough is now over Bendigo so it may develop to storms once move on way to East.

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#1454281 - 24/02/2018 11:22 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6886
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Now mostly sunny, high heat index, muggy strong northerly and temp nudging 34C.

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#1454314 - 24/02/2018 14:23 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Still hot windy NW winds at 2.30pm of 33c

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#1454316 - 24/02/2018 14:35 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
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Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6298
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Pretty gross 29/19 here wind light and variable atm as change almost overhead.
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#1454319 - 24/02/2018 14:48 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 749
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
37C @ Bairnsdale AWS. Change not far off.

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#1454326 - 24/02/2018 15:39 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1236
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Change through here over an hour ago pretty
Much a dry change!! Few spots of rain that barely
Half wet ground!
Can't see to much left in it either?

Noticed a few storms popping up around
The rangers on radar, must be dry up
There hopefully no fire starts

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#1454333 - 24/02/2018 16:18 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 749
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Expected (by the radar) that there'd be nothing out of the change. Got 1.25mm here but 10mm indicated at Bairnsdale AWS.

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#1454336 - 24/02/2018 16:32 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1939
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
Very nice pelting rain for last 10 minutes.....can put up with this !!
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN 53.4MM FEB 14MM MARCH 18MM APRIL- 7mm

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#1454353 - 24/02/2018 17:12 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very cool to dry change temp dropped to 27c with south windy...

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#1454355 - 24/02/2018 17:17 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 749
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
The rain that i reported was not actually on the change but pre-frontal. The change was a good 30 mins behind. See one last small band on way - Samboz makin' me believe there's more in it than appears laugh

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#1454364 - 24/02/2018 17:40 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
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Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6298
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
No rain, temp down to 17.6 and windy, becoming overcast
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#1454367 - 24/02/2018 17:54 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6886
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Like Bob, we got to 37C here, but luckier with the change, 3.5mm rain with a few rumbles. Also, luckily the front arrived whilst in Royal Maffra's 19th hole wink

Now 23C with cool SW'ly, further rain looking unlikely this evening.

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#1454371 - 24/02/2018 18:03 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1939
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
5mm @ home & 5.6mm @ E/Sale BOM.

Certainly round 35C here middayish, muggy - wished I was in a 19th somewhere..... grin

The next band heading to TB land has some good rain in it, best of luck
with it TB.

Looking at rainfall obs, could be 6 - 8 mm in it TB - see how that guess goes?


Edited by samboz (24/02/2018 18:10)
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN 53.4MM FEB 14MM MARCH 18MM APRIL- 7mm

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#1454381 - 24/02/2018 18:53 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Overcast of 23c.

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#1454400 - 24/02/2018 19:34 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1236
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Had some low cloud/drizzle light showers
After the change went through which may
Have got us a mm at best.
I'll venture down to the gauge soon and
Reveal all!!😂

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#1454411 - 24/02/2018 20:12 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1236
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Tipped out 1mm on the dot

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#1454438 - 24/02/2018 22:59 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Alex_96L Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2015
Posts: 214
Loc: Mulgrave (SE Suburbs), Melbour...
Only just now realised how dry this month has been. 2.0mm in total so far eek

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#1454495 - 25/02/2018 10:27 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6298
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Amazing wind this morning, occasional mizzle and still yet to pass 13c. Great stuff
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1454529 - 25/02/2018 12:37 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Last day of Thread, very strong SE winds fanning of 20c at 12pm.

February High Pressure doing East Trade wind for too long making Victoria dry and weak upper low/trough or ex cyclone and SW winds short is hopeless not bring enough rain for Victoria.

Charts to March 6th looks very boring of East Trade winds and short SW change as High pressure swings back SE/E very quick.

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#1454546 - 25/02/2018 13:51 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6298
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Power off for hours, half a neighbours pear tree down across back fence, neighbours begone tree on side fence is now neighbours can see after it snapped at the base. Fantastic wind event around the ranges and just the north or downslope side. Max so far 15.1c
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1454613 - 25/02/2018 17:12 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6886
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Cant believe you had strong easterly winds without us getting the same Ruckle!

MOstly overscast and mild 23C here, then afternoon easterly established bringing enough misty rain to put me into a raincoat working at RMGC this arvo.

Currently more serious rain showers are pulsing through, hopefully we get a damp night in N Gippy.

Summers gone eh?

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#1454622 - 25/02/2018 17:58 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6298
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
SSE more so wink and just went into town, some very large branches down lots of general small debris and over last few hours the mids looking somewhat unstable. Neighbour lost another chunk of earlier mentioned pear tree and another one was snapped at base since last post. I guess the left overs of the upper trough in bight yesterday were enough for the surface trough to deepen, high pushing in and some favourable topography equals wild day in parts of the central ranges. Max remained 15.1c
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1454625 - 25/02/2018 18:08 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6886
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Amazing local weather Ruckle, ....and check out latest MSLP chart:



...with this in mind, most of us would predict mild cloudy conditions under light general SE'ly breezes. Perhaps only strong wind due to a storm at the base of the trough-line central Vic??

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#1454652 - 25/02/2018 20:29 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 287
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
Raining here in Tarneit.
Coming from the east, quite strange.
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Wunderground

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#1454660 - 25/02/2018 20:58 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Not very common see low clouds from East to North East with strong winds reach far inland. Most of time I see low clouds from SW to south... or along dived ranges.

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#1454667 - 25/02/2018 21:51 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6298
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Just rained a little here as well.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1454701 - 26/02/2018 09:41 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 749
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Didn't get back to the gauge ... and then didn't get back again ... so can only report total for event: 17.5mm. It just kept on and on. Samboz was right , even the small band, way after the front, delivered and then, yesterday mist turned to drizzle which turned to rain.

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#1454718 - 26/02/2018 11:26 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Alexia Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/12/2002
Posts: 583
Loc: Corryong
12 mm for us just not in the right spot this time.16mm rain for February so far but usually our driest month.


Edited by Alexia (26/02/2018 11:29)

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#1454735 - 26/02/2018 12:52 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1939
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
17.5mm - very handy after a dry Feb to date.

14mm here for the month, 2mm since 0900 y'day.

Been unseasonably mild though, been OK to pick cooler
days to get things done outside.
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN 53.4MM FEB 14MM MARCH 18MM APRIL- 7mm

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#1454799 - 26/02/2018 17:42 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1236
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Some very handy totals out east for
U guys👍

We received another mm late yesterday
With the arrival of some drizzly showers.

Very dry month up here by our standard
Sitting on 12mm and that's probably what
We will finish on id say.
The average for feb up here is 52mm

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#1454812 - 26/02/2018 18:42 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6886
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
That easterly drizzle/showers persisted into the night and gave us 3mm rain to add to the 3.5mm we got with Sat arvo's thundery change.

After the 15mm we got last week, things have really greened up here despite it being last week of February.

Re Kelvin, looks like Tassie benefited most for SE Aus?

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#1455365 - 01/03/2018 23:29 Re: Vic - arrival of remnant of TC Kelvin 23-25/2/18 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Online   happy
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My first post since last week from here in Belgrave. I'm making a good recovery from my nose surgery, but I've been so busy with family commitments. poke

Wednesday February 21st 2018

Low: 14.2C High: 35.3C Rain: 0mm


Thursday February 22nd 2018

Low: 18.6C High: 37.7C Rain: 0mm


Friday February 23rd 2018

Low: 19.5C High: 35.1C Rain: TRACE


Saturday February 24th 2018

Low: 27.1C High: 30.7C Rain: TRACE


Sunday February 25th 2018

Low: 13.7C High: 22.1C Rain: TRACE


Monday February 26th 2018

Low: 13.1C High: 31.3C Rain: TRACE


Tuesday February 27th 2018

Low: 13.9C High: 37.2C Rain: 0mm


Wednesday February 28th 2018

Low: 21.3C High: 36.2C Rain: 0mm


Thursday March 1st 2018

Low: 14.3C High: 24.3C Rain: TRACE


A continuation of the relentlessly warm to hot, dry and at times windy conditions to wrap-up Summer 2017/2018, followed by cooler, but still dry weather to kick-start Autumn 2018.

The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Kelvin swept through from the WA Pilbara brought bursts of troughy weather conditions between February 21st and February 24th, followed by a brief cool-down on February 25th in the wake of a cold front. Only very light showers on the 22nd & 23rd; somewhat heavier showers with the risk of a thunderstorm occurred while I was down in Rowville and Wheelers Hill on February 24th, along with an ugly scud-fest once the cool change arrived. I also encountered a few more post-frontal light showers later that night when I went out to Melbourne Airport to pick up some relatives who were returning from Sydney.

Warm to hot, dry conditions resumed in the waning days of the summer.

I went down to Phillip Island with my family and friends (including Cape Woolamai, Cowes, the Nobbies Centre/Seal Rocks and the Penguin Parade) on February 27th. Thanks to hot, dry northerly winds, temperatures stayed 30-32C for the vast majority of the day, dropping to around 28C a couple of hours before sunset. While at the Penguin Parade at dusk, the mercury fell to around 24C with a cooling onshore breeze. And during the drive back home to Melbourne after dark it was still around 21C. smile

It was very windy on February 28th while I was in the City, with a cool change moving through around mid-afternoon; the bulk of the day was mostly sunny, but the late-afternoon and evening were mostly cloudy and we even managed a few light showers in the Boronia/Ferntree Gully area on the way home in the evening.

Today has been mostly cloudy but with lengthening sunny spells, cool southeasterly winds and a temperature spread of exactly 10 degrees. Perfect for a nice afternoon drive out to Emerald! smile

Currently around 13C.

As much as the conditions have been reasonable enough to go out and do things with my family, overall I am SICK, SICK, SICK to death of the lack of decent rainfall and storm activity throughout February 2018. The fact that the bushfire risk doesn't seem too high is not enough, considering how parched the grass is and the fact that many deciduous trees are starting to change their colours due to the excessively hot conditions!!!!! mad mad mad mad mad

Really hoping things become wetter and stormier as we move deeper into autumn. frown

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